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TORONTO – More than a celebration, it ended with a huge sigh of relief.
Canadians woke up Monday to the announcement of a new trade deal with the United States, their largest trading partner and, more importantly, a stay at the threat of crippling auto rates that President Trump had held for months.
Prime Minister Justin Trudeau of Canada leaves with some elements deemed sacred to the economic security of his country: a dispute resolution system for companies that feel unjustly taxed and a long-term expiry date to the agreement .
In exchange, Canada promised to open its long-protected dairy market – a target of Trump's attacks on Twitter and rallies for months – to US competition, a deal that immediately angered the Quebec politicians. 11,200 dairy farms in the country.
At a press conference in Ottawa on Monday, Trudeau called the deal a "good deal," although he acknowledged the compromises.
"As with any major negotiation, we had to compromise," he said in French. But, he added, "today is a good day for Canada".
The agreement does not eliminate the high tariffs on steel and aluminum imposed by Mr Trump in the spring. Instead, Mr. Trudeau said his country would continue to negotiate for their withdrawal.
"The major failure of this trade agreement was not to end tariffs for steel and aluminum," said Philip Cross, former chief economic analyst at Statistics Canada, a government agency. use the same national protection rationale to impose more tariffs in the future, regardless of any trade agreement.
"He can invoke national security under this agreement and impose tariffs on anything he wants," said Cross, who is now a member of the Macdonald-Laurier Institute, a conservative research group based in Toronto. Ottawa. "I'm not sure we have secure access to the United States that free trade was supposed to give us."
Nevertheless, several economists have said that while the deal would probably not strengthen the Canadian economy, it was unlikely to hurt much.
Dairy concessions have infuriated Quebec politicians, the country's second-largest province and the center of the dairy industry. The four party leaders competing for Monday's provincial election rejected the Canadian government's promise to compensate farmers.
"It is an expression of the systematic injustice that Quebec is a victim of in Canada," Jean-François Lisée, leader of the Quebec separatist party, told the press.
During much of the negotiations, Trump had threatened to impose 25% tariffs on Canadian automobiles and auto parts in the United States, which would have crippled the Ontario economy, according to forecasts. It has also become a significant issue in Mr. Trudeau's re-election campaign next year.
The new agreement – renaming the North American Free Trade Agreement to the US-Mexico-Canada Agreement – counteracts this threat by effectively exempting Canadian exports to the United States. By requiring that 40% of auto parts come from so-called "high-wage" factories, it could even give a boost to Canadian syndicated auto makers.
"I would say that we are in better shape today than in the last 24 years," said Jerry Dias, president of Canada's largest private sector union, Unifor, on a Radio Company radio show. -Canada in the morning. "So I'm absolutely delighted with the situation we found ourselves in."
He added, "Listen, we resisted until the end. We had what we needed. We did not bend in the areas that the United States wanted us to do, so we are in pretty good shape today. "
Compared with the triumphant President Trump, the deal and the jobs would be generated in the United States and North America, "Mr. Trudeau said with courtesy and discretion at his press conference.
For him, the agreement was more about consolidating the Canadian economy than developing it. "We have preserved the most important parts of Nafta," said Trudeau.
The deal was good for the economy, good for the workers, he said, and made North America "a much more stable place than it was yesterday."
The conclusion of this agreement made it possible to complete an exhausting and turbulent process for the Prime Minister who, at the approach of the elections, sometimes seemed vulnerable and had stumbled under a shower of insults from Mr Trump.
Many thought that Mr. Trudeau was in an impossible situation – trying to get a market that he could sell for his country as well, and maintaining his dignity in front of the unpredictable Mr. Trump.
The test of Mr. Trudeau, who will face elections next year, will be to know if he can persuade voters that Nafta 2.0 is a win-win for all, as he has long assured them that She would be.
"Justin Trudeau needs to take things in hand fairly quickly," said Shachi Kurl, executive director of the Angus Reid Institute, a Vancouver-based nonprofit polling organization. "Can he sell the case?"
Almost from the beginning of his presidential candidacy, Mr. Trump criticized the Nafta, and particularly the provisions relating to Canada – a drum beat that has not weakened.
This added an additional drama to the negotiations, which the Canadians followed with the sustained attention normally reserved for the hockey playoffs.
Despite Trump's growing disgust, Canadians largely agree that the country can not survive economically without its larger and more powerful neighbor. Nearly three-quarters of Canada's exports cross the border.
When the negotiations reached their final stage last week, Canadians rivaled by the auditions show for the appointment of a US Supreme Court judge, who drowned most of the commercial news on Friday.
The polarization of US policy, the uncertainty about the nature of the trade deal that Congress would accept and the way the mid-term elections in the United States would change things have infuriated most Canadians.
Then there was Mr. Trump, who, in the eyes of Canadians, seems out of touch with the facts; approach each transaction as a showdown; and began to publicly insult the oldest ally and neighbor of the United States.
"He is armed with uncertainty," said John Higginbotham, a member of Carleton University in Ottawa, who was Canada's second-ranking senior diplomat in Washington for six years.
"You can not call his bluff with impunity," he added. "He does not play, he's a little crazy. He's a little crazy. "
Last week, Mr. Trump said that he did not like the Canadian representative – probably referring to Foreign Minister Chrystia Freeland – and that he deliberately denied Mr. Trudeau by refusing to meet with him. United Nations. (Mr. Trudeau's office stated that no meeting request had been made.)
Nafta negotiations began more than a year ago, with Mr. Trudeau saying that he wanted an agreement that would be good for Canadian workers, but will also include provisions on climate change and new chapters on gender and indigenous rights.
Mr. Trudeau has deployed an army of charmers on the other side of the border to form alliances with the people around Mr. Trump.
Known as the donut strategy, the campaign seemed to work. But in May, two days after an agreement was reached on Nafta, the Trump administration announced it would proceed with high tariffs on steel and aluminum.
The Canadian government put $ 12.6 billion in tariffs against US imports.
Since then, relations between the two countries – and the two leaders – have deteriorated further.
In June, at the end of a seven-day group meeting in Charlevoix, Quebec, Mr. Trudeau said at a news conference that Canada would not be bullied.
"As Canadians, he said, we are polite, we are reasonable, but we will not be threatened."
Trump was angry with Air Force One on his way to his summit meeting with North Korean leader Kim Jong-un. He wrote on Twitter that Mr. Trudeau was "very dishonest and weak" and accused him of false statements.
Canadians defended Mr. Trudeau, whose approval rate increased to 70% in one year. number of votes. Even his political enemies lined up behind him.
Canadians canceled their trips to the border and started boycotting American goods in protest.
Then, at the end of August, Mr. Trudeau received another brutal shock when the US and Mexican presidents signed an agreement without him.
Some thought Mr. Trudeau was outmatched by Mr. Trump.
"There was some illusion that sending a progressive couple from the prime minister's office to Ivanka would solve the problem," said Higginbotham, referring to the president's eldest daughter.
But many Canadians believe that the US administration did not negotiate in good faith – a position supported by Trump who told Bloomberg last month that any deal with Canada would be "totally on our terms".
And most agreed that Mr. Trudeau and his Minister of Foreign Affairs, Ms. Freeland, had been put in difficult positions.
"I'm not sure they had a lot of choice," said Don Campbell, a former Canadian ambassador and senior government official who helped create the first version of Nafta.
"They are dealing with an unprecedented situation, with a president who is not rational or consistent in his approach, who ignores the facts and who does not tell the truth," he said.
Follow Catherine Porter on Twitter: @porterthereport
Dan Bilefsky contributed to Montreal's reporting.
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