After more speculation about the cause of the ISS leak, NASA publishes another statement

A thorough Russian investigation into a leak that occurred in August in the orbital module of a Russian spacecraft Soyuz, attached to the International Space Station, will not be completed until November. But this week, the head of the Russian space agency Roscosmos has relaunched the controversy about the leak with a few comments during a television appearance.

According to a preliminary investigation, Russian Deputy Prime Minister Dmitry Rogozin, responsible for space flights in Russia, "concluded the removal of a manufacturing defect that is important to establish the truth". So, if it was not a manufacturing defect, then what was it? As Rogozin did not say, this rumor fueled rumors that the hole was intentionally drilled by NASA astronauts into space. This theory is absurd, but it seems to work well for the Russian public.

After these last comments and the imminent launch of the Soyuz satellite on October 11 that will transport NASA astronaut Nick Hague to the International Space Station, the US space agency felt the need to issue a new statement on Wednesday. It reads:

On August 29, 2018, a small hole was discovered on the International Space Station. This resulted in a pressure leak. The hole was identified and repaired by the crew of the space station.

Russian media recently reported that Chief Executive Rogozin said the hole was not a manufacturing flaw. The exclusion of a manufacturing defect indicates that it is an isolated problem that does not categorically affect future production.

This conclusion does not necessarily mean that the hole was created intentionally or with malicious intent. NASA and Roscosmos both investigate the incident to determine the cause. The International Space Station program is tentatively planning an outing in space in November to gather more information.

On October 11, US astronaut Nick Hague and Russian cosmonaut Alexey Ovchinin will travel to the International Space Station aboard a Russian Soyuz MS-10 spacecraft from the Baikonur cosmodrome in Kazakhstan. Administrator Bridenstine is scheduled to attend the launch and plans to meet with Mr. Rogozin. This will be their first meeting in person. They had a phone call on September 12 during which they discussed the leak of the International Space Station.

Some terms in this statement may be a bit difficult to analyze, but after talking to a NASA official, here's how we were told to interpret that.

First, NASA wanted to let it know that it trusted the Soyuz probe, the only way for NASA and Russian astronauts to get to and from the space station before launching the week next. Hence the fact that the August leak "does not categorically affect future production".

Secondly, the space agency wanted to assert that it was probably not an intentional sabotage act and that it was certainly not an act of astronauts from NASA in the space.

While has it really happened? The prevailing theory at NASA is that the Soyuz probe, arriving at the station in June, was accidentally damaged at some point during the manufacturing or integration process. This could have occurred during the manufacturing phase at RSC Energia's facilities in Samara, Russia, or in processing and integration facilities in Baikonur, Kazakhstan, from where the spacecraft was launched.

After this apparent drilling accident, a technician may have noticed a drilling error and covered the hole with glue, which prevented the detection of the problem during a vacuum test. This temporary patch failed a few months later after prolonged exposure in space. This, according to the definition of the Russians, would apparently not be considered a "manufacturing defect", as the use of improper metals or other processes to manufacture vehicles.

The bottom line is that this relatively small leak has become a major gap between Russian and US space programs. On the whole, they have good relations and both have to work together to keep the space station in orbit. However, the fact that Rogozin walks and speaks before the final report probably poses more problems than he solves. This is probably the real message implied in NASA's Wednesday statement.