Russia's new missile defense system in Syria is likely to change the balance of power in the Middle East

Russia has completed the delivery of an S-300 ground-to-air missile system to Syria, which could alter the balance of forces in the skies above the Syrian battlefields.

"The work was completed a day ago," Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu told President Vladimir Putin during a televised meeting.

The decision to provide the sophisticated anti-aircraft system was taken as a result of the destruction of a Russian Ilyushin reconnaissance aircraft by the loss of 15 passengers on board by Syria on September 17, at one time. incident 22 miles off the Syrian coast for which Russia holds Israel ultimately accountable.

The friendly fire from the Russian plane is not surprising as three of the world's most powerful air forces – Russia, the United States and Israel – frequently fly into Syrian airspace or near. In addition, there are Turkish and Syrian planes, supported in the case of Syria by a ground-to-air defense system. With five air forces operating nearby, an incident still seemed inevitable.

Israel has expressed regret over the death of Russian air force personnel and fears that the S-300 will make it even more risky for its planes to continue their campaign against Iranian installations in Syria. Missiles have the ability to track dozens of targets hundreds of miles away. Domestic manufacturer Almaz-Antey said they could also shoot down cruise missiles and ballistic missiles.

Israel has long sought to prevent the delivery of S-300s to Iran and Syria. Iran bought the system in 2007, but it was not delivered until 2016.

"We have not changed our strategic line on Iran," said Israeli Education Minister Naftali Bennett, a member of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's security cabinet. "We will not allow Iran to open a third front against us. We will take action if necessary. "

Putin has so far managed to maintain good relations and a high level of cooperation with Syria, Turkey and Israel, despite their contradictory goals in Syria.

Relations between Israel and Russia have deteriorated since the shooting on September 17, when the Russians claimed that the Israeli F-16s had used the reconnaissance flight of the Russian aircraft off Latakia to carry out an attack.

The stake is larger than the future Israeli air operations over Syria. US military power in the north of the Middle East – particularly in Syria and Iraq – stems mainly from the power of massive destruction of its air force and its ability to use its planes and missiles as it sees fit.

This strategy worked successfully in the campaign against Isis in both countries in 2014-18 when local ground troops – Kurds in Syria and Iraqi government security forces – defeated Isis through US air support. Any radical improvement in Syrian air defenses reduces American military options.

The United States could not confirm yesterday that the S-300 missile batteries had been delivered. But the Russian Ministry of Defense has released a video of the unloading of the launcher, the radar and the command and control vehicle.

Moscow will also support and improve Syrian electronic defenses.

Syria hopes that Israel will be less free in the future to conduct air strikes on Syrian territory. Syrian Deputy Foreign Minister Faisal Mekdad said: "Israel, used to conducting attacks under various pretexts, will now weigh and rethink before attacking again."

The S-300 missiles will at least make Israel more cautious and less inclined to take for granted the acquiescence acquired by Russia in the Israeli operations against Iran in Syria. It has also deployed the even more advanced S-400 missile batteries on its own bases in Syria.

Israel gives advanced warning to the Russians of any of its air actions in or close to Syria which has allowed some 200 attacks since the start of 2017 to be carried out in relative safety.

A Russian complaint about the shooting down of the Ilyushin reconnaissance plane is that only one minute’s warning was given. This was too short a period for them to alert the Syrians as to what was happening. An explanation for this could be that the Russians and Syrians must inevitably inform their Iranian allies about Israeli intentions leading Israel to keep the warning time as short as possible.

The shooting down of the Russian aircraft and the delivery of the S-300 is a sign that the military balance is changing to the advantage of the Syrian government.

Since the end of 2016, President Bashar al-Assad has recaptured the most important armed opposition strongholds in East Aleppo, East Ghouta and Deraa, leaving only one, the large opposition enclave in Idlib untaken. He can now focus more time to pushing back against Israeli military operations affecting Syria.

Israel and the US continue to speak of the build up of Iranian influence either directly or through local proxies in Syria, Iraq and Lebanon. But Iranian influence probably peaked in Syria and Iraq in 2015 when governments in both countries were under intense military pressure from Isis and needed all the foreign help they could get. Israeli attacks will not stop, but they will be riskier.