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Democrats led by Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer and House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi were hoping to make big strides in the mid-term elections, but a new NPR poll / PBS NewsHour / Marist shows that Republican enthusiasm has increased.
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Democrats led by Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer and House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi were hoping to make big strides in the mid-term elections, but a new NPR poll / PBS NewsHour / Marist shows that Republican enthusiasm has increased.
Aaron P. Bernstein / Getty Images
In a new NPR / PBS NewsHour / Marist poll, just over a month away from critical elections across the country, the vast benefit of the democratic enthusiasm that has defined the campaign from 2018 to the present is gone.
In July, there was a 10-point gap between the number of Democrats and Republicans claiming that the November elections were "very important". Now, there are only 2 points, a statistical link.
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The Democrats' advantage over the party candidate that they are most likely to support has also been cut in half since last month. Democrats still retain a 6-point advantage on this issue, but that was 12 points after a Marist poll conducted in mid-September.
The results were achieved in the midst of the fierce and extremely partisan battle for the confirmation of Brett Kavanaugh's appointment to the Supreme Court. Several women accused Kavanaugh of sexual misconduct while he was in high school and at university. He categorically denies all allegations. The FBI is conducting a further investigation into the charges that should be completed by the end of the week.
With the Democrats already mobilized for this election, the Kavanaugh confirmation fight apparently had the effect of awakening a dormant GOP base.
"The result of the hearings, at least in the short term, is that the Republican base has been awake," noted Lee Miringoff, director of the Marist Institute for Public Opinion, who conducted the poll.
While Democrats and Republicans are now equally enthusiastic about the by-elections, the story is very different for the major democratic grassroots groups and independents. While 82% of Democrats believe that mid-term reviews are very important, this is only true for 60% of under-30s, 61% of Latinos and 65% of independents.
The Democrats must get 23 seats to regain control of the House, but if these groups stay home in large numbers, it will negate the potential gains of the Democratic Party. At 34 days of election day, everything points to another election dominated by party activists.
"There are not 34 dramatic moments [between now and then]"It will be my base against yours," said Miringoff, pointing out that the Republican willingness to push Kavanaugh's confirmation down, despite his unpopularity, the GOP's base in the hope of keeping control of Congress .
"The Republicans' approach has been and continues to be centered on the foundation," Miringoff said. "It's their M.O., and that's what we see, it works if the turnout is not high."
The NPR / PBS NewsHour / Marist poll took place on Monday. These questions were asked of 996 registered voters and have a margin of error of 4.2 percentage points.
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