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Patrick Mahomes does not come down to Earth.
What Mahomes did in Denver Monday night should put an end to the idea that it is difficult to turn into an ordinary quarterback. Even after the Broncos buried him in a fourth quarter hole, they could not stop the madness of the Mahomes. Mahomes ran the first half with 7 of 15 passes for 65 yards, but was 21 out of 30 for 239 yards and a second-half score, allowing the Chiefs to defeat a 10-point deficit in the fourth quarter against a defense. . featuring the likes of Von Miller and Chris Harris.
It was the size:
Mahomes managed what had been touted as his first real test of the season (as he had managed 896 yards, 13 touchdowns and zero picks against the Chargers, Steelers and 49ers, it was easy) . Now, he faces an even tougher challenge on Sunday, when the Chiefs welcome the Jaguars.
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What a matchup. That's all you could want in a football match. The Chiefs scored 36.3 points per game. The Jaguars award 14 points per game, the lowest number in the league. The chiefs offensive is the second in DVOA. The Jaguars defense is second in DVOA. I could go on, but you win the point. We can say that the best attack in football is opposed to the best defense of football.
Do not expect the Jaguars to travel to Kansas City on Sunday and make their way with the Chiefs. Mahomes will not remain undefeated and will not be intercepted – forever, but he's not a match-dependent quarterback who takes advantage of a series of easy games. Mahomes withstands games because he is the best quarterback in football. He is good enough to overcome what could be the best defense of football.
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The game against the Broncos was not Mahomes' best performance – it was actually his worst, statistically speaking – but it was his most impressive. We already knew that the Chiefs could have huge benefits and take advantage of those opportunities in the second half, but we did not know how they would react if they faced a deficit on the road against a good defense . We now know that Mahomes can bring back a team from the dead (with his left hand).
Obviously, the defense of the Jaguars is not that of the Broncos. The defense of this Jaguar is more like the 2015 Broncos defense. They do not really have any weakness. They can rush the smuggler with Calais Campbell, Malik Jackson and Yannick Ngakoue. They can neutralize the impending air attacks with their corner tandem, Jalen Ramsey and A.J. Bouye. And they can stop the race with a group of linebackers led by Telvin Smith and Myles Jack.
Yet I do not know how they will stop the leaders.
One of the scary things about the Chiefs is that they started 3-0 while scoring 39 points per game and did not even get Kareem Hunt into the game. Hunt, who led the league in rushing yards last season, totaled 173 rushing yards for 53 touchdowns in the first three weeks. And the Chiefs still scored nearly 40 points per game, relying instead on Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce.
On Monday night, the Broncos won Hill's home runs (nine catches for just 54 yards) and blocked Kelce for the entire first half. The Chiefs turned to Hunt, who started the match with 175 yards and one touchdown. It's the beauty of this offense of the chiefs. This is not just Mahomes. It's also the weapons that he uses. And that's Andy Reid who knows how important it is to neutralize the passing rush by involving his half in the race.
The Chiefs have so many dubious weapons that it will be almost impossible for a team, even the Jaguars, to stop them completely. If the big games at Hill are not there, Mahomes can hit Kelce in the middle parts of the field. If the pass game is bottled, Mahomes can make yards himself.
Or they can simply get the ball to hunt in space.
With Alex Smith a year ago, this offense scored 25.9 points per game. Now that they exchanged Smith for Mahomes, they scored 27 points at worst.
At the quarter mark of the season, Mahomes racked up 1,200 yards and 14 touchdowns, which means he has 4,800 yards and 56 touchdowns (one more than Peyton Manning's record). Oh, and he has not started any interception yet.
In a sense, it could be more impressive than his 14 touchdown passes. He manages to be both a wrestler and a careful quarterback. There is no chance either. This is not a case of defenses dropping interceptions, because Mahomes does not run interceptable passes.
It is difficult to win without generating turnovers in the NFL. Related: The chefs are 4-0 with one gift.
It also helps Reid protect his quarterback. The Chiefs only allowed five sacks, tied for the lowest total of the league so far. Against the Broncos, we saw Mahomes escape the pressure all the time, but we also saw Reid use a game plan that protected his quarterback.
Expect more of the same thing against Jaguars. Expect Mahomes to quickly get rid of the ball, put it in the hands of his playmakers and let him do most of the work. Even if the Jaguars go to Mahomes, that will not be enough. According to NFL Research, Mahomes threw three touchdowns and posted a score of 101.1 as a smuggler under pressure this season.
And know that if the situation requires greatness, the Chiefs will be able to turn to the best quarterback in the league.
"Right now, he's playing better than any other quarterback, he's a quarterback to the MVP," Jaguars coach Doug Marrone said Wednesday via NFL.com. "The question is what he can not do.I do not know.I do not think words can really put into perspective how well he's playing very well.It's really all that." There is something to be done. "
"It challenges you in every way, you put it in your pocket [or not], "Said Marrone later. He can do each throw. He makes quick decisions. You take it out of the pocket and it can extend the games. It is sporty enough to run and run for a long way and take it home. He has an excellent command, he has good weapons around him and an exceptional offensive line. At the present time, on the offensive, what you see is that it is incredible, which will be a daunting challenge. We have full hands. "
Which teams should you come back in week 5? And which team with the aspirations of the Super Bowl will make a big fright at home? Now check out SportsLine to see which teams win more than 50% of the simulations, all from the model that outperformed 98% of the experts that NFLPickWatch.com has followed in the past two seasons.
With the first of my top five bets, I will take the Chiefs (-3) against the Jaguars in what should be one of the best games of the season. Keep reading for all my best bets for week 5.
Last week: 3-1-1
This year: 14-5-1
All odds via SportsLine
Heads (-3) against Jaguars
The Chiefs' defense is a major problem that may well explain why they will not be able to defeat the Patriots in January, but they may be able to defend themselves against a Jaguar attack that will take place without Leonard Fournette (with a thigh injury), which puts more pressure on Blake Bortles. If there is one thing that the defense of the chiefs can do, it is rushing the smuggler. Dee Ford and Justin Houston are on the pace for 12 bags.
Even with a poor Chiefs defense, I can not pick Jaguars on the road. I do not trust Bortles. Which version will appear? He has been awful in two games and good in two others. Chances are, he'll be on the best side considering who he's going to face, but I'm skeptical, he can keep pace with Mahomes. And if it ends up being a close match, give me Mahomes on Bortles.
Ravens (-3) at Browns
Did you know that the Ravens have the second highest point differential in the NFL, behind the Rams? This is largely due to the fall of the Bills at the beginning of the season, but also to the quality of their performance since then. Wipe a bad half against the Bengals for a short week, and the Ravens would be one of the biggest stories of the season.
Joe Flacco leads the fifth-highest scoring offensive in football (30.8 points per game). The defense allows 16.3 points per game. And Justin Tucker remains the deadliest kicker of the game. It's a remarkably complete team, even if it's not glitzy.
The Browns are upgraded with Baker Mayfield at quarterback, but Mayfield has yet to face such a defense. He's going to make some incredible shots, as he did against the Raiders last week, but he's also going to make mistakes, as he did against the Raiders last week.
But the main reason I take the Ravens is the inadequacy of the coaches. The Browns finally have a list of talented players, but they continue to find ways to win. It's probably not a coincidence that Hue Jackson is still the coach of the team. After taking a 14-point lead against the Raiders, Jackson is now 2-33-1 as a Browns coach, which is enough for a winning percentage of 0.069! On the other hand, there is John Harbaugh, who has won more games than Jackson since last month.
The Ravens are the best team with the best coach.
Titans (-3.5) at the Bills
My strategy to fight against bills has worked well so far. It is not the week to get out of this strategy.
The Bills could be the worst football team. After blowing the Minnesota Vikings, which will be the strangest result of the 2018 season, the Bills came back to form a 22-0 defeat against the Packers. The Titans, meanwhile, could be one of the best teams in the AFC. They are 3-1, with their only loss of the upcoming season this seven-hour marathon runner in the first week, and they managed to beat the Jaguars and Eagles, two teams from the fourth season of last season.
What worries me the most about the bills is that I do not think they'll be able to score against the Titans unless there's a barrage of takeaway orders. The Bills' offensive line has been dismal so far, finishing last in pass protection, according to Football Outsiders statistics. And the Titans can attack the quarterback. Jurrell Casey, who has already accumulated three sacks, should annoy Josh Allen throughout the game.
Cardinals (+4.5) at 49ers
Supporting a rookie quarter making his first start on the road is risky, but consider his competition. The 49ers lost their starting quarter and ran because of knee injuries ending the season. Beathard has played well against the Chargers, but his record suggests he'll be back a quarter lower.
This should be the week that David Johnson finally launches into the pass. The 49ers allowed nine catches for 86 yards and two touchdowns against the Chargers.
Cardinals will not keep it right near. I think they'll win their first game of the season against a shorthanded team.
Rams (-7) in the Seahawks
It is strange to take a team on the road to Seattle, but that's what Rams have been good at. Jared Goff seems to have taken a new step in his development. The game appeal of Sean McVay remains a genius. And the weapons that this team has on both sides of the ball are undeniable. As a result, they are 4-0 and lead the league in points differential (plus-73).
The Rams have already overtaken the Seahawks in the West of the NFC, but they came close to it with an eruption. The Seahawks did not already look like a good team during the first four weeks of the season, and that was before the loss of Earl Thomas, Earl Thomas. I do not know how they will stop the Rams during the game and continue on the other side of the ball. The Seahawks' offensive line, which occupies 31st position in pass protection, will not be able to withstand Aaron Donald and his company.
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