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All this year, we ranked the top 10 races in the House most likely to tip the parties to the November elections. But with the elections in just one month, we had to shake up this plan. There are more than 10 races that could tip the holidays, and they are all so close together that it's almost impossible to classify them.
This shows how well Democrats are positioned to win the majority of the House of Representatives for the first time since 2010. Fourteen of the 15 races below are pickup opportunities for Democrats. (Democrats must gather 23 seats to regain control.)
Thus, instead of the rankings, we have grouped the first 15 races into three categories: the total athletes, the parts likely to switch and the real events. Here are the things in the battle for the House a month before the elections.
Total seats: three Republican seats, 0 Democratic seats
Both sides agree that these seats will overthrow the parties in November. And all three are currently in the Republican column, although the GOP congressmen who represent them have either left office or retired, showing how the Republicans' historic level of retirements is hurting the Republicans. Republicans of the House this year. In the case of Pennsylvania, the two districts were also reorganized by a battle of gerrymandering that ultimately favored the Democrats.
1. 5th District of Pennsylvania (open): This seat is easier for Democrats as a direct result of the # MeToo movement. Former GOP congressman Patrick Meehan resigned following allegations of sexual harassment. Its dividing lines were redrawn and Hillary Clinton would have gained nearly 30 points in the new 5th district. Whoever wins will break a glass ceiling. Republicans have appointed Pearl Kim lawyers and Democrats Mary Gay Scanlon, which means the House delegation, consisting solely of men, from Pennsylvania, will have at least one woman next year – probably Scanlon.
Candidate for the Democratic Congress Mary Gay Scanlon. (Matt Rourke / AP)
2. 6th district of Pennsylvania (open): Shortly after the Pennsylvania Supreme Court redefined the boundaries of the district, GOP representative Ryan Costello announced his sudden retirement. fire shots at President Trump on his way. The Republicans had no choice but to choose, in May, the little-known lawyer, Greg McCauley, as a replacement candidate. He will face Chrissy Houlahan, former captain of the Air Force Army and Democrat.
3. 2nd District of New Jersey (open): The GOP party representative's retirement decision, Frank A. LoBiondo, virtually sold the seat to conservative Democrat Senator Jeff Van Drew. Republicans recognized that they did not have a strong candidate. In this vacuum, Seth Grossman, former board member of Atlantic City, won the nomination of the Republican candidate. He is probably too powerful to win in this centrist district, especially without the help of national Republicans – whom he stopped receiving after offensive remarks about black and Hispanic Americans appeared.
Likely to return: 8 Republican seats, 0 Democratic seats
Demonstration of November's positive results for Democrats: The eight seats that seem most likely to reverse the parties are all in the Republican column.
1. 1st District of Iowa (under Republican control): The race of the GOP People's Representative, Rod Blum, may please the Democrats for two reasons: Republicans privately say that he is not working hard enough to win a competitive race, and the Democrats have appointed the 28-year-old representative Abby Finkenauer, a sensation, could be the youngest woman ever elected to Congress and the first woman elected to the House of Iowa.
Democratic candidate Iowa, Abby Finkenauer. (Lauren Justice for the Washington Post)
2. 17th District of Pennsylvania (Under Republican Control): It's a new addition to our list, and it's strange. Republican Representative Keith Rothfus is technically the incumbent president, but the division of the district has also thrown the Democratic representative Conor Lamb into that district. Lamb's national popularity on the left after winning a special election in the heart of Trump this spring helped him escape with this race; Republican agents now say it's a gift for Democrats.
3. 2nd District of Minnesota (Republican-controlled): Democrats are enthusiastic about the revenge between GOP representative Jason Lewis and Democrat Angie Craig in the Swing Town District outside the Twin Cities. In 2016, Craig lost by two points when a third challenger appeared on the ballot. Lewis voluntarily planted himself in the image of Trump, and some Local experts say that he may be too conservative for this district. But a Republican agent supports voters like Lewis's frisky and frank personality. (His era as a controversial radio host recently resurfaced, as when he had been competing on the radio several years ago: "Well, the problem is whether one can anyone call any bitch? ")
[Will slut-shaming fly in the #MeToo era? Jason Lewis provides a test case.]
4. 3rd district of Minnesota (under Republican control): Another new addition to our list. GOP Rep. Erik Paulsen is a popular congressman who avoids controversy in this centrist district near Minneapolis. But Republicans fear that the neighborhood is starting to become blue enough to put Paulsen in danger. Democrats named wealthy businessman Dean Phillips, whom Republicans attacked. But a New York Times / Siena College survey has a 51 to 42 percent lead over Phillips. Republicans are worried about this race.
5. Third District of Kansas (Republican-held): Another new addition to the list. If there is one race that Democrats are most excited about, it's an opportunity to overthrow GOP Party Representative Kevin Yoder in a district that Hillary Clinton narrowly won in 2016 "This district despises Trump," said a Democratic agent. At the very least, a New York Times / Siena poll shows that Democrat Sharice Davids won 51% of the vote, reflecting the results of a Democratic poll that she is on track to win the majority voices. Kris Kobach, in trouble, leading the Republicans ticket to the Kansas Open Race, is not helping Yoder. Republicans argue that the polls do not reflect Yoder's strength as a candidate, but they acknowledge that the race is becoming more competitive than it was this spring.
6th Colorado District (Republican-run): Another new addition to the list. Democrats have tried and failed to overthrow GOP representative Mike Coffman for several cycles now. This could ultimately be their chance; some private democratic polls show that he loses to Democratic lawyer and veteran Iraqi Jason Crow. As with every cycle, Republicans say that Coffman (also a veteran who broadcast ads in Spanish) is doing what he has to win, but the suburbs of Denver may be turning too much towards democracy.
7. 11th District of New Jersey (open seat, previously held by Republicans): Another new addition to the list, another potential for democratic collection through a Republican retreat, Rep. Rodney Frelinghuysen. The Democrats have named one of their most dynamic candidates in 2018, the former Navy helicopter pilot, Mikie Sherrill. She runs up against American lawmaker Jay Webber in this district that Clinton narrowly won. Some Republicans are worried because Sherrill has more money to spend than Webber.
8. 2nd District of Arizona (open seat, previously held by Republicans): This race in the Tucson area has been on our list since the spring, but it is becoming more and more favorable to Democrats as we approach November. GOP General Representative Martha McSally left the field open to run for the Senate, and former Democratic Congressman Ann Kirkpatrick, who represented a neighboring district of Arizona, ran for the Senate. Senate in 2016, is currently at the head of the group. Republicans have Lea Marquez-Peterson, CEO of the Tucson Hispanic Chamber of Commerce, but she's not as well-known as McSally.
Total in total: 3 Republican seats, 1 Democratic seat
While the political wind turns in favor of the Democrats, the Republicans engaged in these three tight races managed to hang on. The best Republican recovery opportunity is here too. These races will probably be close until the day of the elections.
1. 10th district of Virginia (under Republican control): GOP representative Barbara Comstock has always been one of the Republicans' most vulnerable legislators, but also one of the party's most intelligent activists. She represents the suburban D.C. who voted Democrats in the 2017 elections, but she also disavowed Trump in 2016. Much more novice Democratic senator Jennifer T. Wexton is trying to overthrow her, and some private Republican polls have launched Comstock. This race could be summed up as District Democrats register their dissatisfaction with Trump by voting against Comstock.
2. 27th District of Florida (open): The recruitment of Republicans testifies to the fact that this seat is not a dream. Longtime GOP representative Ileana Ros-Lehtinen leaves the highly-Hispanic district of South Florida, leaving for Clinton by 20 points. But Republicans have appointed Cuban television journalist Maria Elvira Salazar, who they hope will maintain the Republican vote of the most conservative Hispanic voters in the district. Democrats have Donna Shalala, former member of Bill Clinton's cabinet, who has a virtually unlimited budget. Private polls on both sides leave this run in the margin of error.
Maria Elvira Salazar, Republican Congress candidate from Florida. (Pedro Portal / Miami Herald / AP)
3. 49th District of California (open): In the San Diego area, Rep. Darrell Issa (right) is retiring rather than trying to get re-elected in a district he had barely held in 2016, and Cook's non-partisan political report this race is the best opportunity to recruit Democrats in California. Democrats have attorney Mike Levin, while Republicans have the former head of state, Diane Harkey. The New York Times / Siena poll revealed that Levin was aged 51 to 41.
4. The 8th District of Minnesota (Democrats): We finally arrive at the best Republican recovery opportunity in 2018. Representative Rick Nolan (D) withdrew from the most pro-Trump seat that any Democrat held in 2016 to run for the position of Lieutenant Governor. Republicans love their nominee, former county commissioner, Pete Stauber, from a well-known hockey family in the region. Democrats have named former state legislator, Joe Radinovich. This race seems to be in the margin of error, but Republicans are really optimistic about Stauber and plan to spend money to help it win this seat.
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