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The table is ready for a rematch of the LNDS after five years. With their first playoff appearance since the 2013 series, the Atlanta Braves are looking to take revenge on the Los Angeles Dodgers in the five-set that starts Thursday at Dodger Stadium. While the Braves had four losing seasons between appearances with the NLDS, 2013 was the first of six consecutive Dodger titles in the West of the Netherlands. The Dodgers are clearly favorites in this series, but they can not ignore the Braves if they want to progress and reach their goal of returning to the World Series – and this time finishing the job. Atlanta's mix of young talents and veterans has earned him the title of East NL and will give the Braves an opportunity to fight to qualify for their first NLCS game since 2001.
How did they get here
The Dodgers had a remarkably slow start to a team that was at a championship game and brought everyone back. On April 30, they fell to 12-16 and also lost star striker Corey Seager for the year because of a UCL strain. They finally got hot in June after Max Muncy's 10 games and stayed warm until the end. The ugly September of Diamondbacks turned a two-team West West race into two teams. The Rockies and Dodgers tied for 91-71. Cody Bellinger and Muncy's two-point homerands helped the Dodgers win the match 163 and maintain their winning streak.
Atlanta is the only team in the NL not to have to deal with the drama of Monday's deciding games. Thanks to a disappointing season of nationals and a historic collapse by the Phillies, the Braves won the division on September 22nd and were able to sit and watch the other four NL playoff teams compete for the other three spots in the NHLDS. The Braves have always been strong all season, recording a winning record every month except the month of July.
The pitchers
Over the last five seasons, the Dodgers have been convinced that Clayton Kershaw would participate in the first game of the LNDS and all subsequent series (unless it's a closing match ). That's why it was so strange to see the Dodgers announce that Hyun-Jin Ryu was their starter for the first game, even if it made sense on paper. Ryu was simply better in 2018 with an EPR rating of 1.97 compared to 2.73 for Kershaw. The decision may have also been influenced by Kershaw's habit of underperforming in October as the best baseball pitcher. He's no longer the pitcher he's been, but it's not a bad thing when you have Clayton Kershaw ready to play in the second match. The starter of the third match of the Dodgers could be better than the two players who preceded him. Rookie Walker Buehler is on fire right now, having closed the Rockies in the deciding game. He has allowed more than two points earned once in his last 12 starts and could have the best assets of the team. An incongruous southpaw, Rich Hill, would start a potential match for the fourth game and Ryu would be back for the fifth game.
Keith Birmingham / First digital media / Pasadena Star-News via Getty Images
The disappointing bubble of the Dodgers is much more worrying than their rotation. After finishing third in the WAR by the lifters in 2016 and 2017, LA's pen dropped to 16th this season. To understand why, look no further than Kenley Jansen. Here are his numbers over the past three seasons:
Jansen, who was the best reliever in baseball, has become an average and friendly player. His fastball, formerly impassable, has lost much of its effectiveness. On his last outing on Monday, Nolan Arenado and Trevor Story took Jansen's cutters to the back of the net. Elsewhere, Tony Cingrani is injured and guys like Pedro Baez, Kenta Maeda and Scott Alexander are a long way from the top picks.
The best word to describe the Braves' flight crew is solid. There are no familiar names in the rotation or the corrector, but they are not devoid of talent. Atlanta's starter for match 1 is right-handed Mike Foltynewicz, who was among the top 15 or 20 baseball players early in his year of arrival (2.85 ERA, 3.9 WAR). If you remove four points in July, Folty's EAR for the season is reduced to 2.25, making it the fourth highest qualified runner. He mixes a fast 90s ball with a sharp slider, but continues to walk with too many strikers (3.34 BB / 9). Folty vs. Ryu has the potential to be an exceptional and underrated thriller match on Thursday night.
Anibal Sanchez, 34, will make his debut in Match 2. Congratulations to Kevin Gausman. This is a likely option for match 3. Sanchez is 2.83, a record in September and 2.79 in 38.2 innings. . Gausman has averaged 2.87 points in 10 starts since joining the Orioles and conceded a point in 8 innings in 2014. Tehran and young southpaw Sean Newcomb are potential for the fourth game.
Arodys Vizcaino and left-handed AJ Minter are the biggest names to know. On the whole, it's a very competent place that really struggled to launch strikes (the 4.41 BB / 9 collective is the highest in the league). It will be interesting to see if Brian Snitker deploys one of his young raw players, such as Touki Toussaint, Newcomb or Max Fried, to the shelter.
EDGE: Dodgers
The queues
The Dodgers have one of the best offenses in all of baseball. They have nine players with more than 20 circuits and can beat you up and down. Despite a payroll of more than $ 200 million, their best scorer is Muncy, a 27-year-old who has accumulated 161 OPS + and 35 homers in 2018 after spending the last season in triple-A. Not far behind Muncy is Shabby look-alike Justin Turner, one of the most complete batters of baseball. What makes the Dodgers' crime so dangerous is its depth. Manny Machado, Yasiel Puig, Cody Bellinger, Matt Kemp, Yasmani Grandal and Joc Pederson all have OPS + at or above 120. Chris Taylor and Kiké Hernandez are also above average hitters. Good luck, brave throwers.
If Atlanta wants to win this series, he will need his offense to score more than 2.6 points per game that she has managed in seven regular season games (five losses) against the Dodgers. The stars of the training are Freddie Freeman, one of the five players of this formation who participated in the 2013 series (the others are Tehran, Kershaw, Jansen and Puig) and the rookie Ronald Acuña, 20 years old. who could be the best baseball player in a few years. Acuña's combination of power and speed makes it incredibly fun to watch and he can change his game on his own. Veteran Nick Markakis is a good presence in the midst of order. The Braves will however have to find production elsewhere in the range; It was a decent overall offense to above average. The contributions of Charlie Culberson and Johan Camargo would be enormous. Ozzie Albies was not the same player in the second half.
EDGE: Dodgers
Managers
Dave Roberts was named Manager of the Year in 2016 and led the Dodgers to the World Series a year later. Despite all the talent of his lineup, it's fair to wonder if he could have led the Dodgers to a division title without having to play a game.rd Play. The Pythagorean record of LA (102-61) is ten times better than its current record, although it is impossible to know how much this is due to training. Snitker was exceptional in his third year as director of the Braves. This will be his first glimpse of the post-season.
EDGE: Even
X factor
At this point, it should be pretty clear that the Dodgers are the best team in this series. All advanced metrics confirm their advantage in hitting and pitching. FiveThirtyEight gives them a 71% chance of reaching the NLCS. That said, the advantage of baseball in October is that anything can happen. A series of five parts represents such a small sample and the Braves may have a few things that could work in their favor. The X factors for Atlanta could be speed and defense. Ender Inciarte is worse than the league average as a batter, but he is a threat to fly if he can access the base, just like the young duo of Acuña and Albies. And Inciarte is one of the best outside defensemen in the league, counting for 17 of the Braves' 52 defensive passes (3rd in MLB). Psychologically, the Braves could have the advantage of playing with lower expectations. The Dodgers could feel the pressure of trying to return to the World Series, especially if the Braves manage to steal Game 1 or 2 in Los Angeles.
Prediction
There is just too much talent in this Dodgers team. Ryu, Kershaw and Buehler will all be determined to lead their team to a sweep and place in the NLCS against Milwaukee or Colorado.
Dodgers in 3
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