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Russian President Vladimir Putin (left) and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi have signed the agreement Friday in Delhi
India has signed an agreement with Russia to acquire the S-400 air defense missile system, despite the possibility that such a move triggers sanctions on the part of the United States.
Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Russian President Vladimir Putin announced Friday the signing of a $ 5 billion (£ 3.8 billion) contract in Delhi.
The S-400 is one of the most sophisticated ground-to-air defense systems in the world. It has a range of 400 km and can shoot down to 80 targets simultaneously, targeting two missiles.
China, bordering India, also has the same system: the two countries waged a war in 1962 and regularly see skirmishes on their border. For India, it was therefore imperative to strengthen its defense capabilities, particularly in the prospect of a possible two-pronged conflict with Pakistan and China.
Rajiv Nayan, defense expert in the think tank of the Institute for Defense Studies and Analysis, believes that India should take "a calculated risk".
"India must take charge of its strategic interests.An anti-aircraft missile defense system was the necessity of the moment.The United States said that going forward with the agreement would attract sanctions – but we can not see Delhi under pressure, "he said. BBC.
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The S-400 missile system was deployed at Hmeimim Russian Air Base in Syria
Relations between the United States and Russia are tense since Moscow annexed Crimea to Ukraine in 2014. The alleged interference of Russia in the 2016 US presidential election has still fed the tensions.
Washington has imposed sanctions on several Russian companies. The law against American opponents by sanctions (Caatsa) was adopted in 2017 to target Russia, Iran and North Korea through economic and political sanctions.
It also prohibits any country from signing defense agreements with these countries.
But US President Donald Trump has the power to provide exemptions to certain countries. India hoped to get one, but recent statements by some Trump administration officials have sent conflicting signals.
"I can not stay here and tell you that they [India] would be exempt, that we would use this derogation – it will be the decision of the President if he is confronted with a new platform and a major capacity that India has acquired from Russia ", Randall Schriver, Assistant Secretary of Defense for security in Asia and Pacific affairs, recently said.
Defense Secretary Jim Mattis and Secretary of State Mike Pompeo also failed to mention the waiver when they visited Delhi in September.
The S-400 is a major asset to India's defense because its air forces are facing a shortage of squadrons. The strength of his squadron has been reduced to 31, largely because of the aging of Russian planes. He would need 42 squadrons in case of war with China and Pakistan.
The new ground-to-air defense system will allow the air force to detect and destroy missiles. Mr Nayan said that India was already using defense systems "manufactured by Russia and that it made sense to continue with the systems we know".
Delhi's decision to follow through on the deal also testifies to an attempt to bring about greater balance in its foreign policy, according to Pratyush Rao, associate director for India and India. 39, South Asia at Control Risks, consulting firm.
"After investing considerable political capital in strengthening Indo-American relations during Barack Obama's presidency, Modi now seeks to calibrate relations with the United States under the Trump government.
"Given the high degree of unpredictability associated with the Trump administration, Delhi has to protect itself," he said.
How does the S-400 system work?
- The long-range surveillance radar tracks objects and transmits information to the vehicle command, which assesses potential targets
- The target is identified and the ordered vehicle orders a missile launch
- Launch data is sent to the best placed launcher and releases ground-to-air missiles
- The engagement radar helps guide missiles towards the target
Mr Trump recently called India "king of the tariff" and said he wanted a trade deal with the United States to make him happy. The statement was not welcomed by the diplomatic circles of Delhi.
It is not surprising that India has attempted to improve relations with powers such as Russia and China in the new world order under Trump.
India – which manufactures very few of its own weapons – is the world's largest buyer in the field of defense. Russia supplies most of its military equipment and spare parts.
"India had to assure Russia that it still valued Moscow as a defense partner and important strategic partner and the signing of this agreement was proof of that," said Rao.
He added that it was a "dead end situation for Delhi, forced to walk the tightrope diplomatically between a trusted but declining partner." [Russia] and a partner more and more temperament [US]".
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Russian anti-aircraft weapon system S-400 in Crimea
Indian officials now hope Washington will grant a waiver for Delhi.
Mr Nayan believes that behind-the-scenes negotiations with Washington could lead to such an initiative. But that may not be easy because the United States faces a difficult situation.
The United States has made it clear that they must sanction the countries that have signed defense agreements with Russia. She punished China for buying S-400s in September.
NATO's ally, Turkey, is also acquiring the same system, and many believe that it's a red line that the United States does not want the Turkey crosses.
If the United States grants a waiver to India, the other countries will claim similar concessions.
Meanwhile, Washington can not afford to ignore India's growing defense equipment needs. In the last five years, India's arms exports to India have increased five-fold, bringing its share of Delhi defense procurement to 15 percent.
"After carefully setting up the defense partnership, Washington would like to isolate its burgeoning defense business with India through a solution," Rao said.
Mr. Modi's administration should also try to defuse tensions. He will seek reelection next year and will not want a new controversy that could affect his campaign.
"If the United States imposes sanctions on India, they will give more ammunition to Indian opposition parties before the elections.This will open the door to attacks on its management of foreign policy in the coming years. days "Mr. Rao added
Mr Modi is already under fire from the opposition because of the controversial deal on the Rafale jet.
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The Rafale is a multi-role fighter
It signed a government-to-government agreement with France in 2016 for the acquisition of 36 Rafale combat aircraft manufactured by Dassault Aviation. Rahul Gandhi, the leader of the main opposition party in Congress, claimed that Modi had "favored" an Indian company that was part of the French agreement.
Mr. Modi's ministers have denied this allegation, but the issue continues to make headlines in India.
Modi and Trump both have reasons to avoid getting muddled. The big question now is whether Mr. Trump will follow Mr. Modi's approach.
