Tropical disturbances in the Caribbean could threaten the Gulf Coast next week

A disorganized low pressure system has prevailed over the Western Caribbean Sea all week and the risks of formation and influence on the Gulf Coast are increasing. However, he is in no hurry. If this develops, it will not reach the Gulf Coast until at least Wednesday. If she reaches tropical storm status, her name will be Michael.

Most forecast models, but not all, now predict that a tropical storm will hit the north coast of the Gulf between Wednesday and Saturday next week, depending on how quickly it begins to emerge from the Caribbean.

If the storm directly affects the Gulf Coast, there are many possibilities for it to know exactly where it is coming from. The simulations suggest that the landing point could extend from western Louisiana to southern Florida. Although it is too early to tell the strength of the system or where and when it will occur, tropical systems moving in the Caribbean and the Gulf of Mexico are expecting large amounts of moisture to the north and can become producers. prolific rain.

The developing system could be stimulated by another disturbance on the west coast of Honduras, in the eastern Pacific Ocean. The circulation of this system could move towards this zone and increase the chances of formation of a tropical storm.

The National Hurricane Center gives the system a 30% chance of becoming a tropical depression or a storm Sunday and a 60% chance by Wednesday. It is very difficult to predict exactly when things "click" for this type of system. They can stay in place for more than a week and, for one reason or another, the right ingredient is put in place at the right time and it becomes a tropical cyclone.

The Western Caribbean is a privileged place for the formation of tropical cyclones at this time of the year. These large circulations, called monsoon gyres, form slowly and migrate from a low pressure area where the monsoon develops. This mechanism is totally different from the tropical waves observed in Africa between mid-August and mid-October. They are almost always heading north towards the Yucatan peninsula, the Gulf of Mexico or Cuba.

If we look at the season as a whole up to now, we have seen 12 named storms, six hurricanes (category 1+) and one major hurricane (category 3+). Of the 12 named storms, half were subtropical cyclones (characteristics of tropical and non-tropical storms) at some point in their life, an unusually high percentage. In terms of accumulated cyclone energy, or ACE, the season is about 108% of the average for the date.