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Near the end In September, before the United Nations, President Donald Trump made an extraordinary accusation: China was trying to "meddle" and "interfere" in the upcoming US elections. A senior intelligence official repeated this assertion in a subsequent telephone conversation with reporters. And Thursday, in a speech to the Hudson Institute think tank, Vice President Mike Pence explicitly explained the implication: "What the Russians do is far below what China is doing across the country. , and the American people deserve to know. "
This is an exceptional moment "huge, so true" in an administration full of them. After all, Russia has launched a coordinated, well-funded and long-standing covert attack on American democracy. He spread misinformation and sown division, posing as US citizens online, violating geopolitical laws and norms. Russian intelligence agents hacked the e-mail accounts of several prominent figures and democratic institutions and scheduled their publication for maximum disruptive effect. It was an unprecedented attack on the American electoral process. It's hard to imagine what a more aggressive version of this might look like. Especially because it does not exist yet.
China is absolutely trying to exert its influence in the United States. He has led several high profile cyberattacks, generally focused on research intelligence. To say that China's actions are much like those of Russia in 2016 and beyond is not simply wrong: it distorts the threats the United States faces, potentially complicating the task of countering them.
"They feel like they are fundamentally different. China is seeking to influence foreign players and is actually using influence operations, but they really differ significantly from what Russia does, "said Andrea Kendall-Taylor, a former senior intelligence officer in the United States. of the think tank Center for New American Security. "I actually think that the Chinese are probably considering Russia's approach as ineffective and counter-productive."
Pence at least articulated a more complete picture of what the Trump administration means when it castigates China. He cited the country's efforts to promote its interests in the United States through difficult interactions with business leaders, retaliatory tariffs targeting districts that voted for Trump, and advertising. The monks' register, designed to resemble authentic newspaper articles but clearly labeled as paid content. "There can be no doubt," said Pence. "China meddles with American democracy."
"I do not think China's goals or intentions are comparable to what Russia is trying to achieve."
Andrea Kendall-Taylor, CNAS
China is clearly setting its priorities and trying to defend its own interests. But what the Trump administration describes as an interference may more reasonably be called a political maneuver. China often defines undesirable terms in its dealings with outside business interests – look to where Google would have looked to look for a search engine out there – but it does so openly. His rates sting, but would probably not exist if Trump had not perceived his. That they exert political and economic pressures does not seem surprising for a trade war. As for newspaper inserts, this is a fairly common practice. More importantly, he respects the rules.
"It's not secret. It's all at the top of a document produced in China, "says Todd Helmus, a behavioral scientist at Rand Corporation, who focuses on strategic communications. "The idea of making an insert is not really new. I do not really see this level of comparison of the secret actions of Russia to influence the elections and this insert ".
The next logical question would therefore be whether the National Security Council was sitting on classified information that showed more active cyber attacks, political disruption, or misinformation campaigns of the type that Russian hackers had conducted. After all, this is how the interference was recently defined. The answer, again, seems to be no, according to Homeland Security Secretary Kirstjen Nielsen. "What we are seeing now with China is the most traditional, and most traditional, holistic influence campaigns," Nielsen told a recent speech. Washington Post Mountain peak.
Independent cybersecurity researchers support this assessment. "We have not yet identified any secret influence activities on the part of China likely to influence the US elections, even if it is possible that we do not have any influence. We have not yet detected these operations, "said John Hultquist, director of intelligence analysis at FireEye, one of the country's leading trackers. cyberactivities of state.
None of that to say that China is not a threat in some areas. A blockbuster Bloomberg This week's report alleges that the country has infiltrated servers operated by Apple, Amazon and dozens of other companies via a sophisticated hack of the supply chain. (All parties involved have vigorously denied history.) And Chinese hackers have increasingly targeted the United States in parallel with the escalating tensions associated with the trade war.
"We have not yet identified the influence of China's secret influence on the US elections."
John Hultquist, FireEye
But associating Chinese operations with Russia distracts from real and specific electoral threats that the United States faces and continues to face. "When we talk about Russia's efforts to influence, we have to distinguish what is expected from an ordinary country that seeks to defend its interests and that goes beyond the line of conduct into something less commendable. These are really important distinctions to make, "says Kendall-Taylor. "It is much more problematic to say that China is trying to interfere in our elections. It's a much less useful comparison. I do not think that China's objectives or intentions are comparable to what Russia is trying to achieve. "
At the same time, National Intelligence Director Dan Coats warned this summer – also at the Hudson Institute – that "warning lights are flashing red" when it 's clear. is Russian cyberattacks. By focusing more on China's manifest attitude toward American opinion, the administration is diverting attention and minimizing the impact of Russia's secret campaigns.
Pence's speech on Thursday was simply worth it. "In June, Beijing itself distributed a sensitive document called" Propaganda and Censorship Notice "," he said. "He said that China should, in their words," strike accurately and cautiously, separating different national groups in the United States from America. "
If this strategy sounds familiar to you, it is the one that Russia has devastatedly deployed through fake social media accounts – and the same tactic for which President Trump flatly refused to hold Vladimir Putin accountable.
