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A weather disturbance causing rains near the Yucatan Peninsula early Saturday (October 6th) had an 80% chance in 48 hours of turning into a depression or tropical storm as it headed north towards the US coast Gulf. If named, it would be Tropical Storm Michael.
The depression was located just north of the Bay Islands of Honduras. At 7 am, Central Time, the National Hurricane Center (National Hurricane Center) was planning a reinforcement by Monday.
Louisiana meteorologists see the storm arrive on the Gulf Coast, in Alabama or Florida.
The development odds are now 80% over the next 2 days and 90% over the next 5 days with # 91L. The vast majority of our advice keeps the system in the East. #LAwx pic.twitter.com/ygk1p6wAvT
– Steve Caparotta, Ph.D. (@SteveWAFB) October 6, 2018
80% chance of tropical development in 48 hours at low pressure near Honduras. 90% 3-5 days. A depression or storm will likely form Sunday or Monday in the northwestern Caribbean or the southern Gulf. WPC takes it near the mouth of the river and then near Pensacola from here Thursday. @wdsu pic.twitter.com/hniQ4JpDwd
– Margaret Orr (@MargaretOrr) October 6, 2018
We will probably see tropical development in a depression or TS Michael by tomorrow or Monday. Models tended to keep this in our east. We will know more by trying to organize better. Details at 8am @wwltv # BeOn4 – CF pic.twitter.com/b332UOb7UX
– Chris Franklin (@CJohnFranklin) October 6, 2018
"The showers and thunderstorms show signs of organization, but the circulation of the system is not yet well defined," says the Hurricane Center Outlook message. "Environmental conditions are expected to become progressively more conducive to further development, and a tropical depression or tropical storm is expected to form on the northwestern Caribbean Sea or the southern Gulf of Mexico on Sunday or Monday, while system moves slowly north.
"The interests of the Yucatan Peninsula, western Cuba and the north coast of the Gulf of Mexico should follow the evolution of this system over the next few days, regardless of the formation of tropical cyclones. this disruption will continue to cause torrential rains in parts of Central America, the Yucatan Peninsula and western Cuba in the next week. "
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