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Dan Balz
Senior Correspondent for National Policy, the Presidency and the Congress
The battle for the confirmation of Judge Brett M. Kavanaugh's appointment to the Supreme Court left the country as it was before the choice of President Trump: deeply divided, politicized and with many people hostile to those who defend opposing points of view.
But that hardly means that everything has returned to the status quo. The divisions have been magnified because of this brutal and heartbreaking moment in the history of the country. The intensity of this type of clashes sometimes fades over time, but unless and until that happens, confirmation of Kavanaugh will be recorded significantly – when mid-term elections to the Supreme Court and the growing political gap between women and men.
This appointment to the Supreme Court has always been a brutal battle, given that Kavanaugh can transform what was an alternative vote when Anthony M. Kennedy maintained his seat as a strong Conservative who will tip the balance of the court right for many people. years.
If that was not enough reason for this appointment to be heart-warming, we must also add that the Democrats were still furious with the refusal of Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell to authorize a vote or even a vote. hearing on the appointment of presidential judge Barack Obama. Merrick Garland in early 2016, after the death of the conservative bloc's intellectual leader, Judge Antonin Scalia.
So it was both a classic philosophical confrontation between left and right. Republicans started with a stronger hand and took full advantage of it. Trump led the battle as he always does, with a complete tactic that the Democrats could ultimately not defeat.
[How Trump and Republicans carried Kavanaugh to the cusp of confirmation]
But the fact that Christine Blasey Ford accused Kavanaugh of having sexually assaulted her while she was in high school became more than a political power struggle for the court leadership, while both were going to in high school, which has been followed by other allegations of misconduct. All this highlighted a cultural awakening on the treatment of women by men.
Events that divide politically have become almost commonplace these days, but they rarely happen so close to what was already perceived as a decisive mid-term election. This is why the most immediate impact of the confrontation in the Kavanagh region will be visible during the mid-term elections. The bases of both parties are now more animated than they were.
If these sentiments persist until election day, Democrats could benefit from the fight for control of the House, while Republicans could benefit from Senate elections, thanks to the geographical realities of the most disputed races.
If educated women are angry at Ford's treatment, it will help Democrat House candidates in Republican-held suburban neighborhoods and increase Democrats' chances of winning more than the 23 seats they need to win the House. majority. If Trump's Loyalists are suddenly under pressure, Red Democrats could suffer, which could help the GOP not lose control of the Senate. Republicans could even end up with a strengthened majority.
The Supreme Court could feel the effects over a longer period, now that it is caught in the political turmoil. The court can be political in the broadest sense of the word, but it is supposed to be considered impartial, deliberative and, above all, non-partisan. This luster has faded following a series of events occurring in recent years, but Kavanaugh's confirmation makes the problem much more acute.
[The politicians and players whose legacies will be shaped by the Kavanaugh fight]
Each judge must weigh the impact on the court, and Roberts now has another unwelcome question added to his personal role as Chief Justice. But no one in the field will be confronted with more questions than Kavanaugh. His angry attitude the day he tried to defend himself against Ford's charge of sexual assault could mark him indefinitely in public perception.
In his defense against accusations that he claimed to be false and defamatory, Kavanaugh said things that no Supreme Court candidate had ever said in an attempt to win confirmation: he attacked the Democrats. He accused his opponents of seeking a return on investment due to Trump's victory in 2016.
Kavanaugh published an editorial in Friday's Wall Street Journal under the headline: "I am an independent independent judge." He acknowledged that his "tone was high and I felt uncomfortable". He said a few things that I should not have said. He stated that his presentation reflected "my overwhelming frustration at being falsely accused, without corroboration, of a horrible conduct, which was totally against my past and my personality".
What he did not touch on, is the fact that some of the hardest, most partisan languages came in testimonials prepared in advance, words that Kavanaugh explicitly stated as his.
Twice, Kavanaugh spoke to the media, which is an unusual step. Twice, he chooses points of sale – the editorial page of the Journal and Fox News – which the public is conservative. This too was a sign that he accepted the partisan role in this battle.
In the last paragraph of his editorial, he wrote: "I believe that an independent and impartial judiciary is essential to our constitutional republic".
The strategy he used to back up his confirmation raised questions about his judicial temperament. He will have the opportunity to answer the questions that now surround him with his decisions, writings and judicial conduct in the months and years to come.
The appointment of Kavanaugh took place at a time of growing awareness of the harm done to women for years and years. It was another moment of awareness in the #MeToo year that produced almost irreconcilable differences between supporters on both sides.
As Trump said, Kavanaugh's defenders have experienced a scary moment for men who fear to commit sexual misconduct. As McConnell has repeatedly said on behalf of Kavanaugh, no one has been able to corroborate Ford's accusations, the fact that an innocent person until guilt is established is always a fundamental principle of American justice. This view is also shared by many Trump-loyal women who have known and worked with Kavanaugh or who want to see more Conservative judges appointed to justice.
Opponents of Kavanaugh believe that there was never any intention to tell the truth, but that the investigation launched by the FBI a week ago was insufficient, incomplete and subject to constraints imposed by the White House . But that's only part of the reason why this episode has been so intense.
For Ford supporters, and especially for women, Kavanaugh's confirmation process allowed them to wonder what had really changed during the year since the New York Times first appeared on Harvey Weinstein. They will ask why, when there was a doubt about who was telling the truth – and there were many of them – the benefit of this doubt was for the man and not for the woman?
All this suggests that even at a time when attention was reduced, the fight for confirmation of the Kavanaugh could be much more than a mere moment in time.
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