[ad_1]
<p class = "canvas-atom-canvas-text Mb (1.0em) Mb (0) – sm Mt (0.8em) – sm" type = "text" content = "Security, Asia"data-reactid =" 19 ">Security, Asia
It might not end peacefully.
South China Sea Showdown: What Happens If U.S. Navy and Chinese Vessel Collide?
What would happen to a U.S. Navy warship collide with a Chinese vessel while demonstrating on behalf of the sea?
This has been a trivial issue since at least April 2001, when a Chinese fighter jet was hotdogging near a US Navy EP-3 plane surveillance slammed into the American aircraft, kindling a diplomatic crisis between the Chinese Communist Party leadership and the newly installed administration of President George W. Bush. This aerial encounter provides advance warning of what might happen on the surface below.
<p class = "canvas-atom-canvas-text Mb (1.0em) Mb (0) – sm Mt (0.8em) – sm" type = "text" content = "Last weekend the question took on new urgency. Sunday morning People's Liberation Navy Army (PLAN) Type 052C destroyer cut across the bow of the destroyer USS Decatur ace Decatur made by Gaven Reef in the South China Sea. Estimates vary, but it appears to be 45 yards from the American counterpart-compelling the Decatur bridge crew to maneuver to avoid collision. Tea imagery is striking. The term "unsafe and unprofessional" in the US Pacific Command's "anodyne phrasing-understates how to close the vessels to disaster." Data-reactid = "24"> Sunday morning People's Liberation Navy Navy (PLAN) Type 052C destroyer cut across the bow of the destroyer USS Decatur ace Decatur made by Gaven Reef in the South China Sea. Estimates vary, but it appears to be 45 yards from the American counterpart-compelling the Decatur bridge crew to maneuver to avoid collision. The imagery is striking. Whatever the term, this term "unsafe and unprofessional" -in the Pacific Command's anodyne phrasing-understates how to close the vessels to disaster.
Most such incidents involve the rules of the maritime road: who gets to where and what can seafarers and aviators do along their way? Think of the Encounter Gaven Reef and the Counterpoint of an Armed Conflict. And the point of this conversation is Chinese and American Audiences. It's to make an impression on foreign audiences to influence the outcome of the US-China struggle over freedom of the sea.
Audiences such as Vietnam and the Philippines, stakeholders in the maritime disputes roiling the region. Such as Australia and the United States of America, may well be in the background of the United States. And such as France and Great Britain, extraregional en le droit de la langue internationale de la langue en français. Europeans are talking up and down in the water.
<p class = "canvas-atom-canvas-text Mb (1.0em) Mb (0) – sm Mt (0.8em) – sm" type = "text" content = "China calls its opinion-shaping enterprise the"three warfares"And prosecutes it through legal, psychological and media means on 24/7/365 basis. Three-warfares have a passive-aggressive cast to them: Beijing tries to depict itself as a put-upon Asian power facing a domineering United States and as a masterful defender of Chinese sovereignty and dignity vis-à-vis U.S. Navy. China has its opinion-shaping enterprise the "three warfares" and prosecutes it through legal, psychological, and media means on 24/7/365 basis. Three-warfares efforts have a passive-aggressive cast to them: Beijing has to face Asian power facing a domineering United States and as a masterful defender of Chinese sovereignty and dignity vis-à-vis U.S. Navy. It flirts with doublethink.
<p class = "canvas-atom-canvas-text Mb (1.0em) Mb (0) – sm Mt (0.8em) – sm" type = "text" content = "This armed conversation evokes French soldier and counterinsurgency theorist David Galula's dichotomy between incumbent governments and insurgent groups trying to overthrow them. observed that the challenger is free to say anything to discredit the government and to attract everyone, while the incumbent has a reputation. Insurgent leaders harbor few qualms about propagating fake news if it advances the political narrative, while the government tries to get its facts straight before putting out an official version of events. "Data-reactid =" 28 "> counterinsurgency theorist David Galula's dichotomy between incumbent governments and insurgent groups trying to keep track of the problem. If it advances the political narrative, while the government tries to get its facts straight before putting out an official version of events.
Insurgents typically get their message out first and make the all-important first impression. China plays the part of the insurgents Galula describes, the United States is the overseer of the system of maritime freedom. Washington is commonly a latecomer to propaganda battles. It has to set false first impressions straight and that's a hard thing to do. Now it's worth looking at your past and your diplomatic repercussions in order to peer ahead. Some basic questions to ask: what type of craft were involved, what did you do, what did you do, and who played the propaganda and blame games better? Such factors determine the victor.
The likeliest collision scenario would involve a U.S. Navy warship and a Chinese fishing boat or China Coast Guard cutter. South China Sea and East China Sea, South China Sea, China. It floods the area with them to the tune of thousands of fishing craft. Trawlers ply their trade in expanses where China asserts sovereign rights to natural resources. China Coast Guard white hulls dash to the rescue if a rival navy or coast guard challenges the fishing fleet's presence.
<p class = "canvas-atom-canvas-text Mb (1.0em) Mb (0) – sm Mt (0.8em) – sm" type = "text" content = "This week's events also dredge up memories of the Cold Thirty years ago last the cruiser, ahem, seasoned to remember that twilight conflict. Yorktown and destroyer Because we skirted through Soviet territorial waters in the Black Sea. Their goal was the same Decatur'S: to exercise the right of "innocent passage"By coastal seaways and that discarded Soviet claims to special prerogatives that contradict the law of the sea. The Soviet Navy frigate Bezzavetnyy converged with Yorktown at a shallow angle and struck the cruiser This week's events are also dropping up on the memories of the Cold War for those of us, ahem, seasoned to remember that twilight conflict, Thirty years ago last February the cruiser Yorktown and destroyer Because we skirted through Soviet territorial waters in the Black Sea. Their goal was the same Decatur'S: to exercise the right of "innocent passage" through coastal seaways and the like. The Soviet Navy frigate Bezzavetnyy converged with Yorktown at a shallow angle and struck the cruiser at a glance blow on her port quarter to telegraph Moscow's displeasure.
<p class = "canvas-atom-canvas-text Mb (1.0em) Mb (0) – sm Mt (0.8em) – sm" type = "text" content = "It might seem as though the Reagan administration was picking a mustless fight, but there is a logic of impunity in US jurisdictions. encourage foes of maritime freedom to take a mile.salami slicing"In hopes of amity. Fail to stand against small transgressions and you create the incentive to attempt new and more extravagant transgressions. The data are likely to be used in the past. "Data-reactid =" 35 "> It might seem like the Reagan has been picking up a needless fight, but there's a logic of impelling US demonstrations. Mandatory an inch-for instance, by acquiescing in the common demand for advance notice or permission before passing through territorial waters-and you are encouraged to go for "salami slicing". hopes of amity.
<p class = "canvas-atom-canvas-text Mb (1.0em) Mb (0) – sm Mt (0.8em) – sm" type = "text" content = "The Black Sea bumping incident amounted to little as diplomatic The US task force in the Western Pacific today is one of the most important countries in the world, where it is not contested China's South China islands-ground wrested Made in a nutshell. Yorktown. Nor was there any loss of life. There was little to a public outcry in capital. "Data-reactid =" 36 "> The Black Sea bumping incident amounted to little diplomatic goings in. In part that's because of the setting differed markedly from the Western Pacific today. task force cruised along mainland Soviet shores where no one disputed Moscow's sovereignty This is not contested turf like China's South China islands-ground wrested from China's neighbors or manufactures wholesale. Yorktown. Nor was there any loss of life. There was little to be done to public outcry in nor capital.
<p class = "canvas-atom-canvas-text Mb (1.0em) Mb (0) – sm Mt (0.8em) – sm" type = "text" content = "But more importantly, the Soviet Union was a superpower in terminal decay by 1988. The west had come to fear in Moscow or encouraged to do anything that might collapse the regime in Moscow or encouraged hardliners to attempt a coup (as they did in 1991). contenders struck a gentleman's agreement: Moscow went silent about its excessive claims while the U.S. Navy executed no further overt challenges. But more importantly, the Soviet Union was a superpower in terminal decay by 1988. The West had come to fear. I do not know what to do in Moscow or to encourage them to do anything (they did not go back in 1991). Both sides got most of what they wanted.
By contrast, China is a power on the rise. It is asserting rulemaking authority in Asian waters and skies. Black Sea compact arrangement is on offer in Southeast Asia. Beijing would accept one were it offered. Quite the reverse. China is serious about making itself the suzerain of maritime Asia and is striving to lock in its status.
<p class = "canvas-atom-canvas-text Mb (1.0em) Mb (0) – sm Mt (0.8em) – sm" type = "text" content = "This is the week of operations. The prospect for an actual disaster. Decatur incident was not the first in the genre. In 2013 a PLAN amphibious transport cut in front of the cruiser USS Cowpens to block Cowpens out of the vicinity of the Chinese aircraft carrier Liaoning, then plying the South China Sea. But the Chinese "gator" kept a relatively safe distance during that encounter. Think about what would be the plan for a U.S. navy ship's bow, if the American ship plunged into it, and if heavy damage and casualties resulted. This is the brave new world in which China is ushering the region. "Data-reactid =" 39 "> Hence this week's operations. The pattern of Chinese actions magnifies the prospect for an actual catastrophe. Decatur incident was not the first in the genre. In 2013 a plane amphibious transport cut in front of the cruiser USS Cowpens to block Cowpens out of the vicinity of the Chinese aircraft carrier Liaoning, then plying the South China Sea. But the Chinese "gator" kept a relatively safe distance during that encounter. Think about what would be the plan for a U.S. navy ship's bow, if the American ship plunged into it, and if heavy damage and casualties resulted. This is the brave new world in which China is ushering the region.
<p class = "canvas-atom-canvas-text Mb (1.0em) Mb (0) – sm Mt (0.8em) – sm" type = "text" content = "The furor following such a stack-up would probably Conjunction up the EP-3 Affair more than the Black Sea bumping incident. The 2001 collision of the Chinese airman's life and the PLA Air Force has warplane, inflaming passions within China. its dignity by demanding an apology from Washington, as though the propeller-driven lumbering US plane had somehow rammed the nimble fighter. something "The furor following such a pile-up would probably be more likely than the Black Sea bumping incident." pricey hardware concentrate minds The 2001 collision cost the Chinese airman his life and the PLA Air Force has warplane, inflaming passions within China Beijing sought to recoup its dignity by demanding an apology from Washington, but the propeller-driven lumbering US plane had somehow rammed the nimble fighter.
A China held a trump card in that show that it would probably be a collision with the sea, namely possession of the American craft and its crew. The stricken EP-3 landed on Hainan Island, bestowing leverage on Beijing. The parallel between 2001 and today is inaccurate at a different level. Still, it 's fair to forecast that China would resume its efforts to define what had transpired, and how to improve its position on American aggression and Chinese ascendancy. And it would again seek to extract some confession of U.S. culpability. Such measures conform to Beijing's three-warfares playbook.
<p class = "canvas-atom-canvas-text Mb (1.0em) Mb (0) – sm Mt (0.8em) – sm" type = "text" content = "Aim for deeper-seated cultural factors may also be at work late Alan Wachman, China hand at the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy, likened the EP-3 to China's imperative for a "kowtow" from the British Empire. In 1793 China's Qingdao Dynasty claims to be a leader in China. Dynastic officials demanded a kowtow; Macartney protested that the British crown was the emperor emperor's sovereign equal. Neither party bent. Irreconcilable differences set on the pathway to eventual conflict. "data-reactid =" 42 "> Aimed at a deeper-seated cultural factors may be at work The late Alan Wachman, China at the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy, likened the EP-3 In 1793 China's Qingdyn Dynasty claims to be a leader in the British Empire. the British crown was the emperor's sovereign equal.
<p class = "canvas-atom-canvas-text Mb (1.0em) Mb (0) – sm Mt (0.8em) – sm" type = "text" content = "Rival designs of world order could likewise shape the aftermath of a high-seas collision-as Henry Kissinger might be prophesy judging from his book World Order. Basic worldviews that clash amidst impassioned circumstances and diplomatic one-upsmanship make for mercurial interactions. "Data-reactid =" 43 "> Rival conceptions of world order could likewise shape the aftermath of a future high-seas collision-as Henry Kissinger might prophesy judging from his book World Order. Basic worldviews that clash amid impassioned and diplomatic one-upsmanship make for mercurial interactions.
In fact, it is fair to say that such an imbroglio would be outdo past confrontations by most measures. The stakes would be high as each other painted a dastardly aggressor. Publicity would be glaring at the contestants-breaking their political freedom of maneuver. Beijing and Washington would stake out intractable positions, Black Sea-type formulas for deescalating the deadlock would elude them, and options would narrow. It's anyone's guess what trajectory such a controversy would take.
Strategies are forever conducting wargames to project how armed conflicts might unfold. As they should. They could do worse than simulate a high-seas collision and its diplomatic fallout as part of their gaming repertoire. Better to think ahead than to improvise later under hothouse conditions.
<p class = "canvas-atom-canvas-text Mb (1.0em) Mb (0) – sm Mt (0.8em) – sm" type = "text" content = "James Holmes is J. C. Wylie Chair of Maritime Strategy at the Naval War College and coauthor of Red Star over the Pacific. The views are here alone."data-reactid =" 46 ">James Holmes is J. C. Wylie Chair of Maritime Strategy at the Naval War College and coauthor of Red Star over the Pacific. The views are here alone.
<p class = "canvas-atom-canvas-text Mb (1.0em) Mb (0) – sm Mt (0.8em) – sm" type = "text" content = "Read full article"data-reactid =" 47 "> Read full article
