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- The tropical depression Fourteen has developed in the northwestern Caribbean.
- The depression will likely become tropical storm Michael Sunday.
- The future Michael could threaten the US Gulf Coast as a hurricane the week ahead.
- Storm surges, heavy rains, and strong winds are potential impacts on the mid-week Gulf Coast.
- Tropical storm warnings have been issued for parts of western Cuba and the northeastern Yucatan Peninsula.
The tropical depression Fourteen has formed in the northwestern Caribbean and is expected to become Sunday Tropical Storm Michael. This system could then threaten the US Gulf Coast after a mid-week hurricane.
The tropical depression is currently centered about 90 miles east of Chetumal, Mexico, and is slowly moving north-northwest.
Current state of the storm
(The tops of the highest clouds, corresponding to the most vigorous convection, are shown in bright red.The concentration, deep convection around the center is a sign of a healthy tropical cyclone.)
Tropical storm warnings have been issued for western Cuba and the Yucatan Peninsula in northeastern Mexico, including Cancun. Tropical storm force winds (over 39mph) are expected to first reach the tropical storm warning zone on Sunday night, making outdoor preparations difficult or dangerous.
A total rainfall of 3 to 7 inches is forecast over western Cuba, including 2 to 4 inches over the Yucatan Peninsula, Belize and northern Honduras until Tuesday. Maximum isolated amounts of 12 inches are possible in western Cuba.
These showers could contribute to flash floods and threatening landslides.
Forecasts: Mid-week Gulf Coast threat
Tropical Depression Fourteen could be turned into tropical storm Michael Sunday as he moves near the northeastern tip of the Yucatan Peninsula, Mexico.
The National Hurricane Center has scheduled a reconnaissance flight to study the system Sunday to better determine its power.
Path projected (The shaded area in red indicates the potential trajectory of the center of the tropical cyclone.) Note that impacts (including heavy rains, strong waves, coastal floods) with any tropical cyclone can extend beyond the trajectory. provided.)
It is predicted that future Michael will be driven north into the Gulf of Mexico and will likely pose a threat to parts of the US Gulf Coast by mid-week.
High winds are expected to be more favorable for intensification in the Gulf of Mexico than today and sea surface temperatures are also above average. These two factors could contribute to gradually strengthening Michael's future in a strong tropical storm and potentially a hurricane before landing.
It is too early to determine the exact magnitude of the impacts of this system, but here is a general overview of what we currently know.
– Calendar: Landings are most likely to occur somewhere between the Mississippi / Alabama border and the Florida Panhandle from Wednesday to Wednesday evening. Depending on how quickly this system moves north, the center of the future Michael could approach the Gulf Coast as early as Tuesday night. After landing, this system will move further into the southeastern United States until the end of the week.
– Intensity: The National Hurricane Center expects this system to belong to category 1 hurricane when it touches land.
– Wind: Tropical storm force winds (over 40 km / h) are most likely to arrive on the US Gulf Coast on Wednesday, especially from southern Alabama in the panhandle of Florida. Winds of this force could however arrive as early as Tuesday. Hurricane force winds (over 100 km / h) are possible in a smaller area, near the center, inland.
– Storm wave: Storm surges may occur along the immediate coastline, east and east of the center's landing point. The importance of flooding due to storm surges will depend on the strength of this system and the place where it lands.
– precipitation: Heavy rains are likely to spread inland from the Gulf Coast mid-week to other parts of the Southeast until the end of the week. Some of these heavy rains could affect parts of the Carolinas that have been devastated by the floods caused by Hurricane Florence. That said, it is unlikely that this system will fail as Florence did and therefore will not bring extreme rainfall.
Precipitation forecast (This should be interpreted as an overview of where the heaviest rains can fall in. Larger amounts can occur when rains of rain drop for a few hours.)
Interests along the US Gulf Coast that are on the way to this system should begin to prepare.
Check Weather.com throughout the week for more details on Michael's future forecast.
