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Michael became the 13th storm of the Atlantic hurricane season Sunday afternoon and is targeting the northern Gulf Coast before Wednesday. The tropical storm that is getting stronger should become a hurricane – and even an intense one.
The "risk of dangerous storm surges, precipitation and strong winds continues to increase," warned the National Hurricane Center on Sunday.
Current projections suggest that Michael could land along the Gulf Coast on Wednesday. The storm is likely to have a direct impact on the Gulf Coast of Florida, but the Alabama and Mississippi coasts could also face the direct effects of the storm and should monitor the forecast.
Blowing in winds of 50 mph, the storm struck about 130 miles southeast of Cozumel, Mexico, Sunday afternoon, crawling north-northeast at 3 mph. We expect an acceleration in the coming days.
Until Monday morning, the storm is expected to hit the east of the Yucatan Peninsula and western Cuba, under tropical storm warnings, with heavy rains and gusty winds.
On Monday, Michael will emerge in the Gulf of Mexico, where predictions of the computer model predict a steady intensification. The sea surface temperature in the Gulf of Mexico is a few degrees higher than normal, mainly in the mid-1980s – enough to withstand a hurricane or even strong enough.
The wind shear, which has so far slowed the development of the storm, is expected to ease, which should also allow it to strengthen.
The Hurricane Center predicts Michael will reach the intensity of the hurricane with winds of 80 mph (or category 1) by Tuesday, increasing to 100 mph. here Wednesday (or category 2) at the time of landing. However, the models differ in their forecasts as to the intensity of the storm and it could reasonably be a little stronger or weaker.
"Michael should touch parts of the Gulf Coast in Florida that are particularly vulnerable to storm surges, regardless of their exact trajectory or intensity," warned the Hurricane Center.
In addition, very heavy rainfall is inevitable, not only along the coast but also further north, in the southeast and perhaps even in the center of the Atlantic coastline, at the beginning of the second part of the week.
The storm is moving at a constant speed, so it is unlikely that it will produce the type of extreme rain that Hurricane Florence caused. But even then, some of the areas affected by Florence in the Carolinas may be flooded, and river levels may have started to drop only very recently in some areas.
Depending on the runway, the remnants of the storm may also bring heavy rainfall in Virginia, Maryland, and Washington State – another area prone to flooding in September due to unusually wet conditions – Thursday and Friday.
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