The disappearance and alleged assassination of Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi could complicate US-Saudi relations

The disappearance and presumed murder last week of Saudi dissident journalist Jamal Khashoggi while he was going to the Saudi Arabian consulate in Istanbul is only the last challenge to a US relationship. – that the two governments have cultivated with diligence.

The Trump administration has only expressed its public concern over Khashoggi's fate, and the kingdom has strongly denied any information about his whereabouts. In private, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo's officials were frustrated by the lack of a concrete response to high-level direct requests, officials said.

The confirmation that Khashoggi was killed – as accused by some top Turkish officials – or that his disappearance in Saudi hands is likely to trigger a new wave of pressure from Congress to re-evaluate relations with Riyadh.

"If this deeply disturbing report is confirmed, the United States and the civilized world must react firmly and I will review all options in the Senate," said Senator Marco Rubio (R-Fla) on Sunday, among a number of similar comments. .

Lawmakers on both sides of the corridor, long wary of Saudi religious extremism and its historical links to terrorism, have recently criticized Saudi actions in Yemen and in their country. Last month, they were dissuaded by the administration to prevent sales of the US military and its help to the kingdom. The world's largest purchaser of US defense equipment and a key partner of the White House, he plans to bring Iran to the back end and forge an Arab-Israeli alliance. .

Pompeo's statement that the Saudis had "taken demonstrable steps" to reduce civilian casualties in Yemen, caused by air strikes with US-supplied weapons, followed a previous suspension of arms sales by the Senate on the conflict between Qatar and Qatar, another US ally in the region.

Khashoggi, a prominent Saudi journalist, himself exiled himself last year after leaving the country, fearing to be arrested. His columns, published in the Washington Post and elsewhere, have angered the Saudi monarchy, especially because of his criticism of Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, the powerful son of King Salman.

[Read Jamal Khashoggi’s columns for The Washington Post]

Khashoggi, in his latest publication for the newspaper The Post, published on September 18, wrote that Prince Mohammed, known as the MBS, "promised social reform," including ending the ban imposed women driving by the Saudis. "But all I see now is the recent wave of arrests," he wrote, including intellectuals and religious leaders who dared to criticize the crown prince and activists who had insisted that the ban on driving be lifted.

The Saudis have voluntarily accepted the short circuit of President Trump, who had begun seriously during his first presidential trip abroad, to Riyadh in May 2017. In addition to saluting Salman as a wise and beneficent king of his people, Trump virtually proclaimed leader. of the Muslim world and Arab ally closest to America.

The trip also marked a change in foreign policy in which the administration clearly began to equate the purchase of US weapons with the pursuit of US policy interests. Since then, Trump rarely meets a foreign leader – particularly from the Middle East – without publicly raising the subject of US sales of what he termed "many beautiful military equipment".

The peak of this target, however, has not yet reached the $ 110 billion Saudi purchases promised during last year's visit.

However, all these offers have not yet been successful. Despite a price cut of 20%, the Saudis have left the deadline of September 30 to block the $ 15 billion purchase of a ballistic missile system Terminal High Altitude Defense (THAAD) without signature. The administration officials, who spoke on condition of anonymity of the delicate US-Saudi relationship, worried about the possibility that the price of the missiles, manufactured by Lockheed Martin, will increase, even though the United States United are willing to yield to Saudi demand. production provisions are likely to decrease.

A Saudi official, questioned about the deal, said the kingdom remains "very interested" in the THAAD system, but "like any military purchase, negotiations are under way and we hope the negotiations will be completed as soon as possible. ".

[A journalist’s disappearance may rev up a Middle East rivalry]

At the same time, the Saudis resisted calls from the United States to give up any interest in buying the Russian S-400 missile defense system and continued talks with Moscow.

The purchase of US defense systems is one of the elements of the Trump administration, as well as a coordinated stance against Iran and a rapprochement with Israel, in the hope of training the six Cooperation Council of the Persian Gulf, Egypt and Jordan in what the administration has called a new "Middle East". Strategic Alliance of the East (MESA).

A summit planned to consolidate the alliance, currently scheduled for January at Camp David, has been postponed several times over the past year, its alleged members questioning its purpose and bickering among themselves.

"I would say that the reception usually accepts the idea of ​​concept," said retired General Anthony Zinni, the MESA program's director of administration. Zinni toured the area late last month to share ideas. "Some are ready to say," Sign me now. "Others have, of course, many questions," he said. "Nobody rejected it outright."

Some countries would like to see a mutual defense pact, similar to Article 5 of NATO, as well as a broad free trade agreement – something the administration is not interested in providing. Others, including the administration, would like this to be a way to resolve the dispute with Qatar, but the Saudis and the United Arab Emirates strongly oppose this.

Qatar and Oman are wary of Saudi aggression, the United Arab Emirates and the administration against Iran, and all Arab members are worried that the administration plans to use them to strengthen a peace deal with Israel against the Palestinians.

"Some were not sure that it gives them more than they do not [already] Bilateral "in their relations with the United States, said Zinni about his recent consultations." Some are afraid "that it establishes" a first among their peers – giving too much to the Saudis, "he said. "We wanted to put everything on the table, we do not try to hide anything."

The confirmation of Saudi responsibility for Khashoggi's disappearance could complicate efforts to get the alliance off the ground if Congress decides to punish Riyadh and if US public opinion demands an answer.

Despite their frequent differences, the White House and the Saudis have done their best to present a united front. After Trump had insulted Salman at a political rally last week, claiming he "could not last two weeks in power" without the protection of the United States and calling Riyadh to "pay for your military ", MBS kindly diverted the comments.

"Friends will say good and bad things," he said in an interview published Friday by Bloomberg. "You will have misunderstandings. So we have classified this in this category. Trump, he said, was only making a political statement to "his own people."

"If you look at the situation as a whole, you have 99% good things and only one problem," said Crown Prince. "One percent I like working with him."

At the same time, he recalled, far from the United States, which "protects" Saudi Arabia, the kingdom has "bought everything with money".

Kareem Fahim in Istanbul contributed to this report.