Wanted: Accurate Language on Commerce After Brexit

Can the EU propose to Britain a statement on their future relations that could contain a promise of "friction free trade" after Brexit?

This seems to be one of the central issues with which both parties are struggling in the final stages of Brexit bargaining.

Theresa May's spokesperson highlighted the issue at this morning's information meeting in the Downing Street lobby. "I will only emphasize again that there can be no withdrawal agreement without a definite future framework [on trade], He told reporters.

This is one of the main goals of London. But there is no guarantee of success.

As the Brexit negotiations enter a critical phase this week, we know more or less what the current focus of the "Checkers 2.0" Prime Minister's proposal is.

The UK wants to maintain an invisible border across Ireland by engaging Britain in long-term – and eventually indefinite – membership in the Customs Union. The United Kingdom is ready to align Northern Ireland with the rules of the single European market.

Britain is also ready to strengthen its commitments to the EU's equitable conditions.

However, May's Checkers 2.0's proposal has obvious challenges that will not be easily overcome.

Some of these challenges involve obtaining an EU agreement. As Alex Barker of the FT wrote, Germany had originally been pragmatic to allow a legally binding UK customs space by overcoming French reserves in this regard. But Berlin now indicates that it has no interest in opposing the other concerned Member States.

Nor is it obvious that Ms. May will overcome resistance to her plan at home.

Maintaining Northern Ireland in the single commodity market involves the application of different rules on both sides of the Irish Sea and thus genuine regulatory barriers to trade. But it is anathema to the Democratic Unionist Party of Northern Ireland. Arlene Foster, the head of the DUP, warned last week that there could be no agreement on Brexit that would separate Northern Ireland from the rest of the UK.

In order to overcome the resistance of the DUPs, British officials therefore believe that the United Kingdom needs a political declaration on the future trade framework that will allow Ms. May to argue to her country that the support system of the Northern Ireland will never be used. They also think that such language is necessary to convince Parliament that the UK is receiving something in return for paying a $ 39 billion divorce payment.

However, it is difficult to accept such language with the EU.

Mujtaba Rahman of the Eurasia group said the UK was adamant that he needed this language, but the EU maintains the argument that trade can only be frictionless if a country is a member of the EU. single market.

Alex Barker also reports difficulties on this front. He notes that the commission was supposed to publish this week an overview of the issues to be addressed in the political statement on future relations, but it seems that this will now be delayed.

Raphael Hogarth, in the Times, writes that sticking to a vague statement would probably be wiser. "The best hope of the government. . . is to persuade European governments, including France, that, contrary to what British negotiators have been saying for two years, ambiguity about the future is sovereign, "he writes.

But British officials do not seem to see things this way. They seem to insist that the wording of the political declaration must be substantial and concrete in order to rule out the DUP – and allow the Prime Minister to go through the grueling days when he will defend his market in the House of Commons.

Further reading

All parties must prepare for a Brexit without agreement

"The absence of a transaction could take many forms. The "no agreement" refers specifically to the withdrawal treaty, as provided for in Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty. However, Article 50 does not prevent the EU and the UK from concluding other bilateral agreements after Brexit. Many will be needed in such a scenario. Brexit without agreement would in fact become a Brexit multi-agreements. " (Wolfgang Munchau in the FT)

Macron thinks he's a Jedi fighting the dark forces of Brexit

"Anglo-French relations have always been a case of I love you. . . Neither do I. The next few weeks will determine their path for the years to come. France is playing hard at Brexit and adopts Mrs May's line that No Deal is better than a bad deal. " (Henry Newman, director of Open Europe, in The Times)

Remnants should not assume EU leaders will accept a second referendum

"Member states and EU institutions want the UK to come out before the European Parliament elections in late May 2019 and the appointment of a new commission after, otherwise Britain would be forced to participate. The EU has already agreed to redistribute 27 of the 73 British seats in the European Parliament to other member states. France – one of the opponents of the Brexit negotiations – is among the countries that should benefit from this redistribution. It is difficult to imagine that Paris will be anxious to give more latitude to the United Kingdom. " (Agata Gostyńska-Jakubowska, Senior Researcher and Beth Oppenheim, Researcher at the Center for European Reform)

Hard numbers

Last year, the UK received 3.1 billion euros from the EU for direct payments to farmers and another 800 million euros to those who carry out environmental projects . Direct payments to farmers will begin to decline in 2021, initially from 5% for small farms to 20% for larger ones, as new environmental payments come into effect. 2028 when the basic payment ends.