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Where we will call:
Choice of vote: Dem. representative Do not know Did not answer
Explore the 2016 elections in detail with this interactive map.
About the race
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Beto O'Rourke is an American representative of Texas' 16th District, which includes most of El Paso County, elected for the first time in 2012.
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Ted Cruz is the incumbent, elected for the first time in 2012.
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Texas has not voted for a Democratic presidential candidate since 1976 and has voted for one Democrat to be elected to a state office since 1994.
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The contrast between the candidates is striking: Mr Cruz embodies the Republican activism of the Tea Party and Mr O'Rourke presents himself as a flawless progressor.
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Mr. Cruz finished second with Mr. Trump for the Republican nomination for the presidency, calling it "totally amoral" in the last days of the campaign, but recently congratulated on his upcoming visit for a campaign rally. Mr. Cruz is known for his formidable debate skills and his diminutive verbal attacks against his opponents. He was not particularly appreciated in the Senate, even among other Republicans. Former President John Boehner called it "Lucifer in the flesh".
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Mr. O'Rourke is now a national figure because of his charismatic presence in the election campaign, embodying the dreams of many Democrats beyond Texas, some of whom see him as a promising candidate for the presidency. He does not accept CAP money, he went to every county in the state and insisted on his commitment to bipartisanship. But his positions are well to the left of most state voters and he has struggled to respond to accusations that he would have left the scene of an accident after a driving incident in state. Drunk at the age of 26.
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The huge amount of money raised during this run – $ 23 million each in the last reporting period, with Mr. O'Rourke receiving a large portion of his donations in small amounts – is testament to that it has aroused.
Results of previous elections:
| President 2016 | +9 trump |
| President 2012 | +16 romney |
It is generally preferable to examine a single survey in the context of other surveys:
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Our participation model
An important question is added to the standard margin of error of a poll: who will vote? This is a particularly difficult issue this year, as special elections have shown that Democrats voted in large numbers.
To estimate the likely electorate, we combine what people say about their likelihood of voting with information about the frequency with which they voted in the past. In previous races, this approach was more accurate than simply taking people to the word. But there are many other ways to do it.
Once we have spoken to 150 constituents, we will show you the results of our survey based on several participation scenarios.
Our survey under different participation scenarios
| Who will vote? | East. s & # 39; be | Our poll result |
|---|---|---|
| Our estimate | – | – |
| People who are almost certain to vote, and no one else | – | – |
| People whose voting history suggests voting no matter what they say | – | – |
| People who say that they will vote, adjusted for past levels of truth | – | – |
| Every active registered voter | – | – |
| The types of people who voted in 2014 | – | – |
| The types of people who voted in 2016 | – | – |
The types of people we have reached so far
Even if the participation rate was correct, the margin of error would not capture all the errors of a survey. The simplest version assumes we have a perfect random sample of the voting population. We dont do.
Respondents are almost always too old, too white, too educated and too politically committed to accurately represent everyone.
How did we manage to reach different types of voters
| 18 to 29 | – | – | – | – | – |
| 30 to 64 | – | – | – | – | – |
| 65 and over | – | – | – | – | – |
| Male | – | – | – | – | – |
| Female | – | – | – | – | – |
| White | – | – | – | – | – |
| Not white | – | – | – | – | – |
| Cell | – | – | – | – | – |
| Landline | – | – | – | – | – |
Pollsters compensate by giving more weight to underrepresented groups. Once we have talked to more voters, we will show you other common ways of weighting a poll.
Our survey under different weighting systems
| Our poll result | |
|---|---|
| Our estimate | – |
| Do not weight through education, as in many polls in 2016 | – |
| Do not be weighted by the main vote, as most public polls | – |
| Weight using census data instead of voting records, as in most public polls | – |
Undecided voters
We still do not have enough undecided voters to say a lot about that.
Problems and other issues
We ask the constituents what party they want to see in the Senate and who they want to vote for as governor.
We also ask the voters to support N.F.L. players who kneel in protest during the national anthem and who express more generally their opinion on the players' right to kneel.
Do you approve or disapprove of Donald Trump's work as president?
| Approve | Disapp. | Do not know | |
|---|---|---|---|
| The electors | – | – | – |
Who would you like to see control of the US Senate?
| Dem. | representative | Do not know | |
|---|---|---|---|
| The electors | – | – | – |
If the general election of the governor was held today, who would you vote for? (The poll question names the candidates.)
| Dem. | representative | Lib./Do not know | |
|---|---|---|---|
| The electors | – | – | – |
Do you support or oppose the actions of N.F.L. players who knelt in protest during the national anthem?
| support | s & # 39; oppose | Do not know | |
|---|---|---|---|
| The electors | – | – | – |
Do you support or oppose the right of N.F.L. players to kneel in protest during the national anthem?
| support | s & # 39; oppose | Do not know | |
|---|---|---|---|
| The electors | – | – | – |
What types of voters said
Voters in the country are deeply divided according to demographic criteria. But do not overinterpret these tables. Results among subgroups may not be representative or reliable.
Genre
| Dem. | representative | Und. | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Female | – | – | – |
| Male | – | – | – |
Age
| Dem. | representative | Und. | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 18 to 29 | – | – | – |
| 30 to 44 | – | – | – |
| 45 to 64 | – | – | – |
| 65 and over | – | – | – |
Race
| Dem. | representative | Und. | |
|---|---|---|---|
| White | – | – | – |
| Black | – | – | – |
| Hispanic | – | – | – |
| Asian | – | – | – |
| Other | – | – | – |
Race and education
| Dem. | representative | Und. | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Not white | – | – | – |
| White, graduate | – | – | – |
| White, not a student | – | – | – |
Education
| Dem. | representative | Und. | |
|---|---|---|---|
| H.S. Grad. or less | – | – | – |
| Some College Educ. | – | – | – |
| 4 years university graduate. | – | – | – |
| Post-grad. | – | – | – |
Party
| Dem. | representative | Und. | |
|---|---|---|---|
| democrat | – | – | – |
| Republican | – | – | – |
| Independent | – | – | – |
| Another party | – | – | – |
Primary vote
| Dem. | representative | Und. | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | – | – | – |
| Republican | – | – | – |
| Other | – | – | – |
Intention to vote
| Dem. | representative | Und. | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Almost certain | – | – | – |
| Very probable | – | – | – |
| Rather likely | – | – | – |
| Probably not | – | – | – |
| Not at all likely | – | – | – |
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