6 damning conclusions of the IPCC Special Climate Report

A lot of news about climate change has arrived and the greatest scientists are urging us to deal with it now.

The United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) – the global agency responsible for providing objective analysis of the impacts of climate change on society – released a compelling report Sunday night.

He concluded that to limit global warming to only 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 degrees Fahrenheit) from temperatures before the industrial revolution, it would require "rapid changes, from a reach and unprecedented in all aspects of society ".

"The next few years are probably the most important in our history," said Debra Roberts, an environmental scientist and one of the report's lead authors, in a statement.

Already, the average global temperature has increased by 1 degree Celsius since the 19th century. It's the hottest since 120,000 years ago.

In 2015, leaders from almost every country in the world gathered in Paris in the hope of mitigating the adverse consequences of global warming. Called the Paris Agreement, countries agreed that ambitious efforts should be made to limit global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius by the end of the century. This would avoid the disastrous effects of historic rain events, mega-droughts and the melting of vast layers of ice. The United States is the only country opposed to the agreement. President Trump announced that he was withdrawing from the agreement last year (technically he can not make it official until 2020).

But with this latest report, the IPCC has found that to reduce temperatures to about 1.5 degrees Celsius, carbon emissions need to be drastically reduced over the next decade. 45% of levels in 2010. Such a transition would be totally unprecedented.

Technology is not the only limiting factor. It is largely political. We know how to create energy without burning fossil fuels, but the highly industrialized countries and rapidly industrializing countries should begin to radically change their energy production in the coming years.

"Limiting warming to 1.5 C is possible in the laws of chemistry and physics, but that would require unprecedented changes," said Jim Skea, a prominent IPCC scientist, in a statement.

Overall, the target is even more ambitious: the IPCC concludes that net carbon emissions must fall to absolute zero by 2050.

However, even if these ambitious goals are not achieved, researchers – like NASA climate scientist Gavin Schmidt – pointed out that the battle was not about to be lost. Making any kind of significant reduction in carbon emissions will always help our future cause, perhaps powerfully.

Nevertheless, the warming of the Earth beyond 1.5 degrees Celsius will have dramatic effects. Here's what we can expect from the best science available in a warmer world, as predicted by the new report:

1. Prepare for extremely hot days

An increase in extreme heat is one of the simplest effects of global warming.

All-weather temperature records are already falling in the summer, as global warming is warming – the temperature rise has already occurred as a result of climate change – provides a powerful boost. inch to a normal heat wave.

At 2 degrees Celsius, extreme warming would occur in major cities around the world, including North America, the Mediterranean and huge areas of Asia.

"Limiting global warming to 1.5 ° C instead of 2 ° C could result in frequent exposure of about 420 million people to extreme heat waves, and about 65 million people to exposure to waves exceptional heat, "says the report.

Heat waves kill more people than any other type of natural disaster.

2. An Arctic without ice

At 2 degrees Celsius, it is much more likely that the Arctic Ocean – which is traditionally covered with a thick pack ice during the summer – is completely free of ice. This would cause additional warming, as the glossy ice reflects sunlight in space rather than letting it absorb through the oceans.

"It is highly likely that the probability of an Arctic Ocean free of sea ice in summer is significantly higher at 2 ° C compared to 1.5 ° C," write the authors.

At 2 ° C – if we stop warming, there will likely be an ice-free Arctic once a decade. At 1.5 ° C, such an event may occur only once a century.

3. melting massive ice

At 2 degrees Celsius, there would be about 10 centimeters more sea-level rise at the end of the century than at 1.5 degrees Celsius, write the authors. But the problem really begins beyond 2 degrees C. Such warming can trigger the collapse of the Earth's major ice caps, such as those covering Antarctica and Greenland. These would lead to "several meter" sea level rise, the report concludes.

Even at temperatures between 1.5 and 2 ° C, IPCC researchers found that there was a "medium confidence" in the instability of such ice sheet instability.

4. Coral devastation

Coral reefs, rich and rich in biodiversity, will have little time to adapt to dramatic ocean changes, including warming and acidification.

More than 90% of the heat trapped on Earth eventually accumulates in the oceans – and repetitive heat waves in the marine environment have already proved catastrophic for vast expanses of coral. Moreover, the increase of carbon dioxide in the air – which reaches its highest level in 800 000 years – is gradually absorbed by the oceans, which increases the acidity of the water. It eats away at the skeletons of the coral.

If the temperature rises 1.5 ° C, the corals have already been hit hard, with an overall loss of 70%. A report indicating that nearly 99% of corals will disappear from the planet, according to the report.

5. Rain, rain, rain

The rain is good. But not in extreme deluges.

For each 1 degree Celsius (1.8 degrees Fahrenheit) warming, the air can hold 7% more water. It means more rain, especially during big storms.

"Limiting global warming to 1.5 ° C limits the risks of increasing heavy rainfall in several regions," the report's authors write, citing places as East of North America , China, Japan and Canada.

Hurricanes should also "increase in intensity" as strong storms are associated with more precipitation.

6. The poor are impoverished

"Climate change is expected to have a multiplier effect on poverty, which means that its impacts make the poor poorer and increase the total number of people living in poverty," write the authors.

Farm-dependent communities, including those raising livestock, are expected to experience a significant shock as temperatures rise.

"Global warming of 1.5 ° C (instead of 2 ° C) is expected to reduce climate-induced impacts on crop yields and nutritional content in some regions," the report says. This includes areas in Asia, Africa and South America.

And where do you live?

Not all parts of the world, nor your neighborhood, will suffer all of these effects. But beyond a jump of 1.5 ° C, important consequences are probably inevitable in most parts of the planet. California, for example, will experience more periods of drought and extreme deluges (this has already begun).

The IPCC wants to limit these effects and that means ultimately ending our use of fossil fuels by 2050 – completely. Maintaining the temperature increases below 1.5 ° C, however, is the first critical step

"We are at a crossroads," the IPCC tweeted Sunday night. "What's happening between now and 2030 is crucial."