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Long-term tobacco control efforts will continue to help significantly reduce lung cancer rates from 2015 to 2065, according to research published in Annals of Internal Medicine.
"Tobacco control efforts in the United States since the 1960s have resulted in a significant reduction in smoking and smoking-related illnesses, including lung cancer," Jihyoun Jeon, PhD, from the University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, and his colleagues wrote.
Jeon and his colleagues analyzed how existing tobacco control efforts would reduce tobacco use and lung cancer mortality from 2015 to 2065. Researchers used US data on smoking trends from 1964 to 2015 and lung cancer mortality from 1969 to 2010 to develop four simulation models. All four models assumed that current reductions in smoking and lung cancer mortality would continue.
The models predicted that between 2015 and 2065, the age-adjusted lung cancer mortality rate would decrease by 79%. The annual number of lung cancer deaths is expected to decrease by 63%, from 135,000 to 50,000.
Long-term tobacco control efforts will continue to help significantly reduce lung cancer rates from 2015 to 2065.
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The researchers estimated that there would remain 4.4 million lung cancer deaths in the United States between 2015 and 2065; many of them occurring in people who had never smoked, according to the researchers. By 2065, approximately 20 million adults aged 30 to 84 would continue to smoke.
"Our analyzes indicate that the continuation of current tobacco control efforts will result in a significant reduction in lung cancer burden in the United States," Jeon and his colleagues concluded. "Our projections also highlight that smoking will continue to be a determining factor in the risk of lung cancer this century. It is therefore necessary to continue policies and measures aimed at discouraging youth smoking and promoting cessation among current users in order to preserve the gains already made and to redouble efforts to further reduce Impact of smoking on health. "- by Alaina Tedesco
Disclosure:
The authors do not report any relevant financial information.
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