In the election of Brazil, Jair Bolsonaro was not the only winner.


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From the Amazon region to the sumptuous condominiums of Sao Paulo, a conservative wave swept the biggest country in Latin America last weekend.

Millions of Brazilians woke up Monday in a radically changed political landscape. Jair Bolsonaro, 63, a former army captain known for his harsh speech on crime and his speech against women, blacks, Brazilians and homosexuals, was expected to perform well in the first round of the campaign. Sunday presidential election. But not so good. Nearly 50 million voters – or 46% of the electorate – have supported it in a contest with 13 candidates.

This has made Bolsonaro the favorite of the final elections this month, which could tip Brazil into new political territories.

Since the end of the military dictatorship in Brazil in 1985, presidents have been cut off from the centrist fabric. The country swung left in 2003 with Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva's victory – known as Lula – and his party of workers ruled for 13 years. Before Sunday, this young democracy had never seriously flirted with the far right.

Bolsonaro has criticized the quotas imposed by the government on minorities in universities and wants to develop the Amazon. He favors less restrictive weapons laws so that civilians can fight the crime wave. He described the former dictatorship as "beautiful", which raises questions about his commitment to democracy.

But it has attracted a huge number of voices in committing to revive the economy and fight crime and corruption.

The results of the presidential race only told part of the story. Brazilians slaughtered Sunday a traditional political class widely discredited by a massive corruption scandal. Voters removed the extraordinary two-thirds of the incumbents. Bolsonaro's own party – once an after-the-fact policy – recorded staggering gains, rising from just eight seats to the second largest formation in the lower house, consisting of 513 members, with 52 seats. The left has lost seats. But the center has collapsed.

"Bolsonaro is accelerating the break-up of Brazilians in two opposing camps," said Robert Muggah, director of the Igarapé Institute, a think-tank based in Rio de Janeiro that specializes in security issues.

Before the vote, the elections had given Bolsonaro a roof of about 40%; many analysts were expecting it to score no more than 35%. But he managed to reach those numbers, surpassing his closest opponent by almost 17 points – Fernando Haddad, of the Left Labor Party -. According to analysts, many Brazilians seemed to have changed their votes just days before the elections.

Some changed their minds during the ballot.

Ligia Torggler, a 58-year-old retiree from São Paulo, said she entered the polling station thinking that she would vote for Geraldo Alckmin, a traditional center-right politician. But she decided otherwise because she knew that Bolsonaro would win anyway – and she thought that he was the only candidate powerful enough to prevent a left-back.

"I have shivers to do that," she said.

The calculation of Bolsonaro to win the second round is decidedly easier than that of Haddad.

Of the 11 other candidates who applied, only the top five showed a relatively high number. Bolsonaro was approved by the fifth, potentially giving him half the votes he needed to win. Many voters who supported the fourth-place candidate – the conservative Alckmin – risk losing their title to Bolsonaro, putting him above the rankings.

Haddad hopes to win the support of center-left candidate Ciro Gomes, who is in third place with 12.5 percent of the vote. If all else is unchanged, Haddad will also have to take away almost 100% of the votes cast for the candidates at the back of the pack, if he hopes to win.

"When you go to the second round with a huge gap between you and the runner-up and you're already very close to that 50% plus one, you're at peace," said political strategist Alexandre Bandeira. in Brasilia.

Yet one-third of Brazil's voters – more than those who voted for Haddad – stayed at home or voted blank or ballot. According to observers, the best chance for Haddad to be angry is to urge these voters to vote for him. His camp on Monday sought to rally Brazilians around the idea that Bolsonaro is a threat to democracy.

But Haddad is facing a difficult challenge, not least because he stands as a substitute at Lula. A once-popular character who has helped millions of Brazilians escape poverty, Lula is now in prison for corruption and has no right to run.

Analysts say that Haddad – whose first move Monday was to meet Lula – could be swimming against the tide of a conservative tide.

"Brazil is now riding the tide of global conservatism, an anti-global movement around the world," said Guilherme Casarões, a professor of comparative politics at the Getulio Vargas Foundation, a university in Sao Paulo.

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