Oil prices rise because of signs that Iranian crude exports are falling further

TOKYO (Reuters) – Oil prices rose on Tuesday as new evidence showed that Iran's crude oil exports, the world's third-largest producer of OPEC, were dwindling on the eve of the reinstatement of US and US sanctions. the passing of a hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico.

Brent was up 26 cents, or 0.3%, to $ 84.17 per barrel at 0244 GMT. On Monday, the Brent fell to 82.66 dollars, but mostly recovered, investors betting that the Chinese economic recovery would revive the demand for crude. Brent hit a four-year high of $ 86.74 last week.

WTI futures (West Texas Intermediate) fell 24 cents or 0.3% to $ 74.53 a barrel. WTI fell to $ 73.07 in the previous session, but closed at 5 cents less.

Iran's exports of crude oil fell further during the first week of October, according to oil tanker data and a source of industry, while buyers are looking for alternatives before US sanctions begin on 4 October. November and create a challenge for other OPEC oil producers as they seek to cover the shortfall.

The Islamic Republic exported 1.1 million barrels a day (bar / d) of crude over this seven-day period, according to data from Refinitiv Eikon. An industry source that also tracks exports said deliveries for October were up to less than 1 million bpd.

This represents a drop of at least 2.5 million bpd in April, before President Donald Trump in May subtracts the United States from a 2015 nuclear deal with Iran and to new sanctions. This figure also marks a further decline from 1.6 million bpd in September.

Last week, Saudi Arabia, the largest producer of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), announced plans to raise crude oil production to 10.7 million bpd a month. next, a record.

"The Iranian barrels are falling rapidly and Saudi Arabia's promise of balance will face a reality," JP Morgan said in a note on the oil market.

Iran's oil minister, Bijan Zanganeh, on Monday urged a Saudi claim that the kingdom could replace Iran's crude exports.

"Iran's oil can not be replaced by Saudi Arabia or any other country," Zanganeh said, according to his ministry's website.

Oil companies operating in the Gulf of Mexico cut off 19% of their oil production while Hurricane Michael moved to the eastern Gulf states, including Florida.

If the current forecast was accurate, the hurricane would be largely absent from the main Gulf producing assets, analysts said, but any change in direction could increase its impact.

The International Monetary Fund on Tuesday lowered its global economic growth forecast for 2018 and 2019, saying trade policy tensions and rising import tariffs weighed heavily on trade, while emerging markets were facing a tightening of financial conditions and capital flows.