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AFP
Let's forget Brussels for a moment – and if Jean-Claude Juncker was really making Theresa May's pop yesterday or, as he seems more likely, being a human being and having a little joke.
(If you have not seen it, you can see the May-Juncker number at the bottom of this page …)
If you assume that an agreement on Brexit has been reached in Brussels, some gloomy warnings have been issued today as to whether this could be submitted to Parliament once restored.
Steve Baker, the highly motivated and organized Brexiteer who jumps planes for pleasure, believes that he has at least 40 colleagues who will actually have the bottle to vote against the Prime Minister 's contract when he? S is a viscous version of Checkers, or softer yet.
And former MPs like Mark Harper, who was previously the chief whip, say the prime minister needs to think again or risk being defeated. And remember, it would be the Prime Minister who would lose the biggest vote in years on the biggest project his government is pursuing.
So, without a majority and the opposition parties having almost promised to vote against it, how will the government succeed?
Expect a version of Project Fear ranked X with additional parental warnings.
The government's plan is to present the choice not just as an agreement but not an agreement, but to make a decision between what will be described as pragmatic if not perfect v chaotic-without-man-land.
Weekend Scenarios
One of the key ministers said "there will be no status quo" – people will be reminded that if they vote against it, things do not stay the way they are, they end up in " something that's just not acceptable. "
For the government, the narration will consist in making the vote a moment of national importance, a time for the deputies to choose their country or party, their ideology or their stability.
Expect the argument to be presented with all the force required, as well as in real dramatic scenarios about what would happen to the economy if Parliament canceled the deal.
If an agreement is reached, the ministers also hope that the dynamic will change, because it will leave behind the power of the European machine.
The government whips therefore hope that most MPs will eventually be able to vote with them – a multiparty panic strategy using every wheel, every motivation, every loyalty, every political threat.
And expect a soundtrack out of Parliament so that the future of the country and the government is at stake.
A third way?
But there is a rather unfortunate echo for the ministers here. When was the last time Theresa May asked people to choose between stability and chaos?
Well, absolutely. This choice of slogan in the 2017 general election did not really work well for the prime minister.
There are more Brexiteers than the notional majority of the Prime Minister with the DUP, and this hardcore will probably vote against it.
Some centrist Labor MPs who might be tempted to vote for stability rather than uncertainty will also be drawn in all directions by party loyalty.
Yes, there are already efforts to get them involved, but a cabinet minister admitted "we can not trust that".
And those who advocate a new referendum hope to be able to come up with a third option and allow MPs to reject the deal without voting for some sort of Armageddon.
Some of them may vote against the agreement in the hope of making it happen. There is no established path for this, but that does not mean that they will not try it.
Of course, what will happen will also be determined by the terms of what Theresa May will report from Brussels next month. If there is an agreement, the most difficult part will be waiting at home.
As promised – here is this digital dance …
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