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The Georgia Bulldogs, No. 2, look like one of the best teams in the country. They compete without defeat in the 7th week and beat the competitors by 30 points on average.
But by the time the Dawgs enter the October to November part of their calendar, the road ahead is much rougher than ever.
Before the season, many people would have chosen Georgia for a 4-0 win over LSU, Florida, Kentucky and Auburn. According to S & P +, the Dawgs risk losing at least one of these games, even if their probability of winning in each match is 70% or more. Even though Auburn is worse than expected, the other three have all won more than expected.
Just look at the total number of wins before the start of the season to see that most of these teams are doing much better than expected. Florida was projected at 7.5 wins, LSU 7, Kentucky 5.5 and Auburn at 9 – the Wildcats already have five wins, and Florida and LSU are only two wins apiece. Of course, Auburn may be underperforming, but the Tigers are probably not as bad as they seem. They have at least the # 1 defense of S & P +.
October 13 at LSU: The lowest probability of victory for Georgia occurs on October 13 on the road to LSU, with 70%. Of course, the Gators just beat the Tigers last weekend, but do not expect a crowd of 2:30 from the temperate Death Valley CT after LSU's first loss of the season. The Dawgs are currently the favorites at 7 points.
Should Georgia fans be so scared? Since this game is on the road, that's for sure, but I would take the trust of Vegas and do it here.
October 27 vs Florida (in Jacksonville): S & P + predicts the Dawgs have a 73% chance to beat the Gators. As a Florida graduate, I can say with confidence that I'm afraid of this game, even if this game of rivalry, especially with regard to headaches, is rather superficial:
The ills of this series have been particularly expensive. The Dawgs dismissed the top Gators of the SEC championship in 1997, 2007 and 2012, but UGA fans may have the right to feel even more aggrieved.
Mark Richt would almost certainly still be the head coach in Athens without some of those defeats against Florida, notably for the following reasons: (1) Georgia, champion of the 2002 SEC, would likely have contested the national title in Miami without a loss against a Florida statistically eight. (2) Georgia would have won the East and was playing for a playoff spot against Alabama in 2014 without the inexplicable defeat against Will Muschamp 's last team and a strange defeat against Georgia Tech.
Should Georgia fans be so scared? Yes, only because this rivalry is always unpredictable and the 2014 ghost, Muschamp, can absolutely come back and haunt the Dawgs at any time.
November 3 in Kentucky: S & P + gives the Dawgs a 73% chance of winning this game. Yes, Kentucky beat Florida last month and this game in Lexington, where the Wildcats are unbeaten in 2018.
Should Georgia fans be so scared? A bit, but it's certainly the most complete and balanced team that Kentucky will face this year. I give UGA the benefit here.
November 10 against Auburn: According to S & P +, Georgia has a 79% chance of winning this victory, which seems good. The Tigers seem much less formidable after losing to LSU and the Mississippi State.
Should Georgia fans be so scared? Not really, tbh. Plus, this game is at home, so the Dawgs should be honest.
If the numbers are correct and the Dawgs drop out, I'm not quite sure which one, but the Dawgs should still get by if they lose to LSU or Florida. A defeat against Florida hurts their division record, but as long as the UGA beat Kentucky, they can probably travel to Atlanta because of their victory over Florida by the United Kingdom, assuming the Gators do not win not. The same goes for LSU because the Tigers are in the West.
The Georgia road seems much more difficult than it was at the start, but we'll see what the Dawgs are really about with this game.
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