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By Tom Miles
GENEVA (Reuters) – The Ebola epidemic in the Democratic Republic of Congo is expected to last several months and could extend to Uganda or Rwanda, which are well prepared but do not have the disease. have not approved the use of a vaccine, announced Thursday the World Health Organization.
The area of greatest concern is the city of Beni in North Kivu province in Congo, where dozens of people likely to have been exposed to the deadly disease are hiding health workers, said the head of the Emergency intervention, Peter Salama.
"We expect that we will now wait at least another 3-4 months to actually stem this epidemic, focusing on Beni and its surroundings," Salama said. "I would say it's the best scenario."
The outbreak caused 194 cases and 122 deaths. Two-thirds of the cases last month occurred in and around Beni, where the Ebola response was disrupted last month by armed group attacks and a period of official mourning.
The next few days will tell if the wave of infections in Beni is over, said Salama, depending on the security situation and the willingness of the local community to support the response.
"If, however, this peak accompanied a peak of insecurity that limits our ability to access all these cases and their contacts, we could witness a much larger wave. of this security situation, "said Salama. .
In the latest attack, the United Nations said four civilians were killed near Beni on Tuesday.
Health workers know that many of the new cases are potentially exposed to the Ebola virus. Salama said that 80 to 90 percent of these people were under surveillance. But about 40 people or more "actively avoid follow-up", which increases the risk of spreading the disease, he said. More than 90 percent of these people were in Beni, he said.
Some Ebola victims mistrust health workers, fearing that hospitalization would be a death sentence – despite the obvious risks of missing treatment – while some families insist that traditional burials be conducted , which can spread the virus.
Local authorities in Beni have threatened people harboring alleged patients with a three-month prison term.
Salama said that Uganda and Rwanda could see cases of Ebola, but that they were both well prepared for a quick response. However, neither of them had approved the vaccine, which could be given as a preventive measure to health workers and "in a few hours" to people at risk of a case. confirmed.
Ebola has no known cure, but four treatments have been administered to 66 patients, which Salama described as "a big step forward". With government approval, a clinical trial could begin in a few weeks to identify the most reliable drug, he said.
(Additional report by Fiston Mahamba in Goma, edited by Stephanie Nebehay and Janet Lawrence)
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