The government is worried about the open customs union


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Aside from Michael Gove who narrowly avoided a bus to Whitehall at the time of his breakup, tonight's meeting went off without a hitch.

No decision has been taken. There has not been a resignation yet. It was said that no one had even had a big fit. Honestly!

But after two years of breathing and haggling, one thing becomes clear.

The Prime Minister has always said that the United Kingdom could not agree to stay in the customs union.

But there are signs that the United Kingdom East consider staying in an almost identical arrangement for good, if a broader trade agreement can not be made.

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AFP

Legend

Chief Whip Julian Smith was among those who attended the meeting

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AFP

Legend

As was the Minister of Foreign Affairs, Jeremy Hunt

You guessed it, everything is about Northern Ireland. And regular readers will know that avoiding a return to the borders of the past is for months the biggest puzzle.

In theory, if, as the number 10 wishes, an extremely difficult trade agreement can be concluded, you do not have to worry about it.

But there are such doubts about the fact that this happens in time, that the argument of support is politically vital.

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The negotiators seem to have convinced the EU that if the trade agreement is not concluded by the end of 2020, then the whole country, not just Northern Ireland, should remain in what is essentially the customs union another name).

This hope was put in place several months ago as part of the so-called temporary customs arrangement.

Cabinet members then quarreled over whether or not to include a time limit. In the end, there was one written after threats of resignation.

At the time, the EU would simply not accept this type of arrangement for the whole country. The alternative proposal of Brussels support would essentially destroy Northern Ireland.

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Reuters

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It's all about Northern Ireland

They now have, it seems, accepted the notion of a customs union for the whole country under the agreement.

But they do not plan to give that to the UK with a time limit as well.

For many ministers, this is simply not acceptable. The secretary of Brexit himself says so publicly.

The Brexiteers have long argued that if the UK stays in the customs union, it is not at all like leaving the EU.

And at today's meeting, several ministers, including Dominic Raab, Liam Fox, Jeremy Hunt and Michael Gove, have made their concerns clear, not only because there are questions to know if it's the right thing to do, but also if it could clear the House. municipalities.

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And at least one minister, Andrea Leadsom, is pondering whether she could endure such a compromise. It is essentially a code to decide to resign.

At this afternoon's meeting, it was said that the Prime Minister had not explicitly told his colleagues that she was planning to do it, but that she was probing them.

But in other briefings today, the officials would have been a little clearer, stating that number 10 was ready to accept a backstop without an explicit time limit.

None of this is at this stage being officially confirmed.

But it is clear tonight that the number 10 looks to find out if what we once thought was an unpleasant decision to make is the reasonable price of an agreement.

A senior government official suggested to me a few months ago that this was the only end result. But the Prime Minister's criticism will be unleashed if and when she says it clearly.

PS: Number 10 will not comment officially

PPS: Those of you who have really paid attention will know that this is distinct from the other major problem of the possible compromise, namely the increase in the number of checks on goods moving between Britain and the United Kingdom. North Ireland.

It's a different puzzle for Theresa May and no less problematic.

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