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"There is an agreement on Ireland!", "All agreement on Brexit will be concluded by Monday!", "The UK will remain forever in the union customs / until 2020 / um, until the establishment of a perfect trading relationship after the Brexit. " … "
Suddenly, we are drowning in the rumor and assertions, whirling and swirling about secret deals being concocted between the EU and the UK in anticipation of the future. another crucial summit of European leaders next week.
We are eager to be the first to announce the news of a breakthrough – primarily on the thorny issue of the Irish border.
But all the noise is currently coming from the British media.
British politicians express reactions, objections and cries of betrayal. And it is there that lies the key to forcing our way through this whirlwind.
As we have seen throughout this Brexit process, the debate is about the "Brexit bill", the maintenance of the single European market or the customs union and even the benefits and Brexit's own drawbacks is the United Kingdom in spasms, arguing over the compromises that it may or may not do to seal an agreement with Brussels.
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The current excitement in the UK is focused on the details that the Prime Minister will accept in the legally binding EU guarantee that there will be no hard (customs) border for Northern Ireland. regardless of the type of economic relationship between the EU and the UK after Brexit.
And the counter-noise of Brussels and the European press?
No.
European consumers of information are not interested in the political contortions related to Brexit. They want to know if and when an agreement is reached.
'Tunnel' talks
Meanwhile, in Brussels, the negotiators have stuck in what they describe as a tunnel as technical talks between the EU and the UK intensify in the near future. of the EU summit next week.
Their plan: moving out with teary eyes at the end of the weekend, claiming that significant progress had been made in the remaining outstanding points of the waiver agreement, also known as divorce agreement.
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Reuters
Negotiators blocked in talks in Brussels
Like what happens after Brexit in Gibraltar and in British military bases in Cyprus; also agreeing on the scope of the role of the Court of Justice of the European Communities in respect of the terms of the divorce between the European Union and the United Kingdom and, of course, finalizing the extremely controversial wording of the Irish Pillar – this legal guarantee to avoid a hard border between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland.
The silence aims to exclude what the negotiators consider an insidious media. Whenever a step forward is taken in the negotiations, it is broadcast, analyzed and torn in the UK, making progress even more difficult.
The British reaction has of course several reasons: the rest are dissatisfied with the fact that Brexit takes place, the Leavers want as few links as possible with Brussels, the ambitious politicians hope to advance their career thanks to Brexit. process.
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Ms. May had to make concessions to the EU
But most of all, critics can not help but notice that every time negotiations have progressed, it's because Theresa May has responded to the EU's demands.
As difficult as the Prime Minister's desire to close his eyes during this Brexit process, the EU has refused to make meaningful concessions. She must have blinked.
And that's what Brussels fully expects with regard to the Irish border.
Michel Barnier, the chief EU negotiator for Brexit, explained this week in more detail than ever before the type of goods and regulatory controls that Brussels will insist on between Northern Ireland and the rest of the EU. United Kingdom to avoid too hard border on the island of Ireland, in case a sufficiently "deep and specific" trade relationship between the EU and the UK does not emerge after the Brexit.
But is not this a risky tactic? After all, they are worried about the impact of a Brexit without agreement on European companies.
In simple terms, the EU countries think they hold the cards and that Theresa May needs an agreement even more than she does.
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They are unlikely to give in or concede anything as long as they do not want something from the UK – and we probably will not see this scenario until the horse trading starts seriously between the two parties when they sit down to negotiate their final trade agreement.
And it will only be after the Brexit. European legislation prohibits detailed commercial discussions until the UK leaves the club.
This fall is only the beginning
All of the current song and dance relate to the conclusion of a divorce contract and an accompanying document describing the future relationship between the two parties after Brexit.
This document on the future is not legally binding and it is here that the EU intends to break back in the coming weeks and stealthily help to help Theresa May protect the Irish border from her detractors at home, suggesting that the future relationship between the two sides will be so close that the net will never be needed.
Which is good what both parties say: the backstop is only a guarantee and is not meant to be used.
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The EU and the UK will say that Irish border security is a guarantee only
EU interlocutors close to the negotiations said that they wanted to use many inspiring and inspiring terms in the document on future EU-UK relations; words like unprecedented, unique, deep and special.
That said, France and Germany insist that a word can not appear – and that is "frictionless".
They want to make it clear that trade between the EU and the UK will not be possible without friction if the UK leaves the single European market.
But we are not there yet.
First, ongoing discussions need to be completed
The key word used by European diplomats is "convergence", which brings together European and British minds on the final points of the divorce agreement.
We will have an idea of their position by Monday at the latest so that European leaders can think before meeting Theresa May Wednesday in Brussels, if they believe it is realistic to organize a summit on divorce next month.
The timing depends largely on the political needs of Theresa May. EU diplomats say that they are relaxed – honestly – about the agreement reached early next year.
And even if they do not yield to the Prime Minister's demands regarding the content of the Brexit agreements, the EU is happy to adapt to the choreography.
Communication between internal decision circles on both sides has improved dramatically since the public relations disaster at the last summit of European leaders, where Theresa May felt neglected and ruffled the feathers of the world. ;Europe.
But from now on, pay attention to announcements, statements and articles published by both parties.
In addition to the real negotiation, there is an element of theater here: impressions of urgency, harmony, threats or fierce battles created for those who wait and look outside the tunnel.
