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Various options are on the table to address the border issue, but EU negotiator Michel Barnier suggested Wednesday that to avoid a physical border between the two sides of the Northern Ireland would still be part of the EU's single market (a region where people and services move freely).
But this plan could raise issues for May at home. The Unionist Party of Northern Ireland, the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP), which returns in May to Parliament and gives it the necessary majority to approve any agreement on Brexit the rest of the United Kingdom
"We expect the withdrawal agreement to be completed in November, but the risk of" no agreement "will remain high because of the possibility that it will not survive the ratification process," said Danielle Haralambous. , British analyst at the Economist Intelligence Unit. said CNBC by e-mail.
Once the negotiators have concluded the withdrawal agreement and the EU leaders are satisfied – which would take place in mid-November – this agreement must be approved by the European and British parliaments. , the ratification process.
"In the UK Parliament, Brexit-minded government members are not satisfied with the direction taken by Mrs May in the Brexit, while Labor MEPs (MPs) have declared their intention to vote against the agreement," he said. Haralambous.
"There is a significant risk that MPs from both sides of Brexit will speak out against the withdrawal agreement and call for a general election," she added.
DUP members have threatened to vote against the government's budget plan for next year, if the British prime minister does not respect the DUP's "red lines" in the Brexit process.
This could potentially bring down the government because it would indicate that the agreement between the Conservatives and the DUP would no longer be in place.
If the negotiators succeed in finding a solution to the Irish problem next week, the pound sterling could still rise. The currency was volatile against the persistent noise of Brexit, having risen 0.5% to 1.32 dollar against the dollar following the remarks of Barnier this week.
