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Anastasia Tregulova celebrates the Oktoberfest at a brewery in Munich, Bavaria. (Matt McClain / The Washington Post)
Griff Witte
Correspondent focused on Europe and with extensive experience in the Middle East and South Asia
Luisa Beck
Reporter covering the Berlin office of the Washington Post covering Europe
WÜRZBURG, Germany – Like many Bavarians, Rudolf Trunk never had to think about who to support when the time came to choose the leaders of the power of southern Germany.
The center-right Christian Social Union (CSU) was synonymous with Bavarian identity – Lederhosen follower, industry, Catholic devotees – and Trunk, a square jaw lobbyist, in its place.
Not this year. When the party arrived in this university town surrounded by cascading wineries one evening this week to rally support for crucial elections, Trunk was on the other side of the city, applauding at a rally for Greens.
"CSU has done a lot of wonderful things for Bavaria," said Trunk, a recent retiree who has brought a touch of sophistication to the tweed for a more spin-off affair in the central Würzburg market. "But they tried to look like the far right and it was not the right way. I think it's time to change after 60 years. "
This is a common chorus in Bavaria in October, a reflection of what is widely regarded – even by CSU insiders – as a disastrous miscalculation on the part of a party hitherto safe before the Sunday vote. for the state parliament.
Faced with the insurgent challenge to the extreme right of the Alternative for Germany (AfD) party, the CSU has radically broken with its more moderate brother party, the Christian Democratic Union of Chancellor Angela Merkel, and tried to emulate the newcomer's hard talk about immigration. . On a number of occasions this year, the break almost collapsed the German national government.
A supporter reads the campaign material of Bavarian Prime Minister Markus Söder at a rally in Würzburg on 9 October. (Thomas Lohnes / Getty Images)
But the bet failed to recover lost conservatives, while the centrists and liberals who had once backed the great CSU tent broke away for more progressive alternatives, especially the Greens.
The flop illustrates the limits for Europe's traditional centrist parties to attempt to co-opt the continent's populist wave.
In some countries, notably the Netherlands and Austria, center-right leaders have adopted the far-right rhetoric and managed to retain or acquire power. But their initiatives yielded nothing to a majority, and they needed partners – the far right, in the case of Austria – to govern.
At the same time, the tendency of political parties to adopt stricter immigration stances has not prevented the right wing voice from continuing to grow on the continent. And as Bavaria shows, the abandonment of the center is dangerous.
"The voters of the CSU are not as far right as thought the party leaders," said Christoph Mohamad-Klotzbach, professor of political science at the University of Würzburg. "And now, the left and center of society are mobilizing against them."
The consequences for the UHC are likely to be serious. The party has ruled Bavaria for 61 consecutive years, an extraordinary record of political dominance. Nobody expects this series to end after Sunday's vote, while the CSU should largely win. But the victory rarely looked more like a defeat.
Instead of the overwhelming triumph of previous elections – when the CSU consistently won half or more of the vote – the party is in the process of claiming a third only this year. A party that has rarely had to share power will have to make an agreement with one or more rivals to govern the region.
Campaign posters, including for the Christian Social Union and the Greens, are on display in Tittmoning, Germany. (Sean Gallup / Getty Images)
The humiliation of CSU follows a pattern of political fragmentation in Europe. The Bavarian party dynasty is increasingly anachronistic on a continent where political power is moving away from centrist, traditionally dominant post-war parties to an ever-increasing number of niche movements once relegated to the mainstream. margin, left or right.
CSU has long prided itself on being a "people's party" – a broad-based movement that avoids radical ideology or single-issue crusades in favor of reasoned compromise and practical solutions. It's a formula that has been working for generations. All people, from top BMW executives to alpine farmers to Munich merchants, find themselves happy.
Party leaders also like to make Bavaria a utopia on the planet, characterized by extremely low unemployment, balanced budgets and negligible crime rates.
But the 2015 refugee crisis posed a political problem that has upset the party since then. When Merkel opened the door to more than a million asylum seekers – and most of them passed through Bavaria – the CSU leader, Horst Seehofer, protested vehemently. .
Today, the German Minister of the Interior, in addition to being the head of the CSU, Mr. Seehofer insisted this year for a stricter control of immigration and sometimes openly challenged Merkel.
The conflict left the national government paralyzed, lost in internal quarrels. But in his eyes on Merkel, Seehofer was not wanting to break definitively with the unusual marriage with Merkel's party, under which the CSU is campaigning only in Bavaria, the CDU is competing everywhere else and both are forming a pact at the federal level.
His strategy has failed to satisfy both sides of the polarizing refugee debate.
"Some members of the electoral base say," Why can not we do more? We are such a rich country. And then there are those people who say, "It can not go on like this. We need an upper limit. We have reached our maximum, "said Oliver Jörg, member of the CSU in the Bavarian Parliament representing Würzburg. "For us, it's a stimulating experience."
And some incendiary rhetoric coming from party leaders – especially from Seehofer – did not help, said Jörg.
In March, Seehofer declared that "Islam does not belong to Germany" – a point that Merkel quickly refuted. In July, he celebrated the expulsion of 69 failed Afghan asylum seekers at the age of 69, and then rejected any responsibility when one of the men – who had been living in Germany for eight years – had committed suicide. upon arrival in Kabul.
"We do not need such speeches from our party leader," Jörg said.
The other dominant figure in the party, and Seehofer's main rival in the CSU, seems to be of this opinion.
On 9 October, Bavarian Prime Minister Markus Söder, in the center, attends a CSU demonstration in Würzburg, Germany. (Thomas Lohnes / Getty Images)
In an address of one hour and more in front of a crowd of less than 400 people on Tuesday night, Bavarian Prime Minister Markus Söder spoke of immigration a few minutes before the end. Instead, he urged voters to remain loyal to a party that brought them wealth and security.
"Some say they are poor and sexy," said Söder, traveling to the German capital, Berlin, once so famous for its rugged terrain. "In Bavaria, we are strong and stable."
When he approached immigration, he did it cautiously, calling for border controls while thanking those who volunteered to help the refugees and "showed themselves to be better".
But the softer approach is a relatively new turning point for Söder and appeals within the party are already raising for himself or Seehofer – or maybe both – to withdraw after the vote.
While the CSU was disputing, other parties seized the advantage with joy.
The AfD barely existed the last time that Bavaria had voted, in 2013. This time, polls show that the party is about to enter parliament with about 12% of the vote; which roughly corresponds to what he had won in the national elections last fall.
"CSU's strategy is to tell people," We are on your side when it comes to immigration. You do not need to vote for the AfD, "said Richard Graupner, AfD's candidate in Schweinfurt, an industrial city located north of Würzburg, richer. "But people do not believe it anymore. They know that CSU does not change anything. "
On the other side of the spectrum, the Greens rose to second place, with 18% projected, taking both CSU voters and center-left Social Democrats, plummeting across the country. .
During a small demonstration of the Greens in Schweinfurt, party leader Annalena Baerbock called for urgent action against climate change to protect molten Alpine glaciers, increased funding to help women victims of violence and a more humane approach to refugees.
Annalena Baerbock, center, the Green Party's co-director, attends a campaign event in Schweinfurt, Germany on 9 October. (Thomas Lohnes / Getty Images)
The election, she said in an interview after accepting a package of 12 dark local beers as thanks from her hosts, could solidify the Green Party's place at the heart of German politics.
"It's a turning point," she said. "Everyone turns to Bavaria."
For longtime local activists, it's amazing. When volunteers began putting up Green Party posters in Bavaria several decades ago, Martin Heilig said, conservative voters in the region were watching them suspiciously, "wondering if you could also put a bomb there" .
But the party has emerged from its radical roots – and Bavaria has also changed. At the party rally in Würzburg, participants skipped the usual price for the sausage and sauerkraut campaign for vegan falafel dressed in coconut and ginger.
"If we win a victory, it's a symbol for all other countries," said Heilig, the party's local president. "We want to be a friendly country, an open Germany. We feel that what people want, too. "
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