Red Sox vs. Astros ALCS: Why Boston could be particularly qualified to handle Houston pitching staff

BOSTON – Saturday night, the Boston Red Sox and Houston Astros open the 2018 series of the American League Championship at Fenway Park. The Red Sox (108-54) and Astros (103-59) had the two best baseball records during the regular season. It's power against power.

Both teams at ALCS posted total excellence during the regular season. You do not win as many games by being great at one thing and OK at everything else. The Red Sox ranked first in scoring points (5.41) and fifth in points per game (3.99). The Astros ranked respectively sixth (4.92) and first (3.30).

On paper, the Astros have a decisive advantage in launching in the ALCS. That's not to say that the Boston rotation is not strong, because that's certainly the case, but Houston is entering the four-draw series. Watch the first pitching tests:

As I said, on paper, Astros have the advantage. Anything can happen in an individual game though. Price could defeat his playoff opponents and start the game of his life in the second game. Who knows? That's what makes baseball fun. It would be boring if it was predictable.

Whatever the case may be, Astros and Red Sox have a similar pitcher philosophy. Of course, there are still individual exceptions, but both teams like to raise fast balls and bury off-speed terrain. Boston has, by far, the highest percentage of fastballs in the top third of the strike zone and above in the regular season:

1. Red Sox: 38.0 percent
2 Mets: 31.9 percent
3 Dodgers: 31.7%
4 Rays: 31.6 percent
5 Yankees: 31.4 percent
…
8 Astros: 29.8 percent
…
Average MLB: 27.7%

Obviously, both ALCS clubs frequently resort to fastball. What separates the Astros from all the others is their overall speed of fastball and their speed of rotation. During the regular season, Houston recorded the fastest rotation speed on average at four seams (2366 rpm) and the second fast four-sided fast speed (94.8 mph), just behind the Yankees (94.9 mph).

Apart from Keuchel, who is a fine-grained finisher, the Astros are a fast-moving, high-speed, fast-spinning organization, and they like to raise their fast balls. Here are the rankings for more than 95 four-seam MPH fastballs in the top third of the strike zone and above this season:

1. Astros: 1,792 high-speed bullets
2. Yankees: 1,643
3. Red Sox: 1,588
4. Mets: 1,530
5. Rays: 1,527

The gap between No. 1 and No. 2 is greater than between No. 2 and No. 5. Astros like, like, like to breed those fastballs at high speed and high speed, and why not? They are difficult to reconcile and generate a ton of swings and failures. Add to that their brittle balls and it's no wonder the Astros have so much success in limiting the innings.

With the notable exception of Keuchel, the Astros have pitchers capable of raising fastballs up and down. There is Verlander, Cole and Morton in the rotation. In the office you will find Roberto Osuna, Lance McCullers Jr., Ryan Pressly, Josh James, Collin McHugh and Hector Rondon. They will all present high speed in the area.

The Red Sox, more than any other team, have dealt damage against high fast balls during the regular season. This makes them particularly skilled at managing Houston's pitching staff, at least in theory. Here are the regular season numbers of the team against these fastballs in the top third of the kicking zone:

Batting average	.272	.224	1
Percentage of slugging	.517	.396	1
Weighted average on the basis (WOBA)	.374	.275	1
Turnover rate	24.7%	27.4%	6th

The Red Sox do not often swing in front of fast high balls – or, more precisely, they are not as wrong as the rest of the league – and when they connect, make it count.

At the individual level, Xander Bogaerts ranked fifth overall at .480 WOBA against high fast balls this season. Mookie Betts is ranked 14th with a .457 WOBA. Brock Holt is ranked 15th with a .456 WOBA. Andrew Benintendi (.426 WOBA) and J.D. Martinez (.402 WOBA) were both among the top 55 forwards against the high heaters. The Red Sox have hitters capable of handling high fast balls throughout their alignment.

The Astros will attack the Red Sox with high fast balls – especially with Verlander and Cole on the mound in Games 1 and 2 – because that's what they do to everyone. Boston, for its part, has been the most productive baseball team this season against the intense heat. Verlander and Cole are special pitchers and maybe their combination of speed and spin is too big, even for the mighty Red Sox. But maybe not. The Red Sox could perfectly match the Stros.

Houston is without a doubt the most intelligent and progressive organization of baseball. I'm curious to see if they adjust right out of the ALCS (fewer high-speed balls, no more brittle balls?) Or if they wait for the Red Sox to show them they have to adjust. As productive as the Red Sox have been competitive this year, they do better, but the Astros may not want to fix what is not broken, so to speak.

You can find how to watch match 1 of ALCS on Saturday here or stream it live on fuboTV (try it for free).