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A participant of the traditional festival Sankt Koloman passes in front of a poster of Markus Söder, Prime Minister of Bavaria and leading candidate of the conservative party of the Christian Social Union to the elections of the state parliament, on October 14, 2018 Exit polls show the party's share of the vote dropping dramatically. (Karl-Josef Hildenbrand / AFP / Getty Images)
Griff Witte
Correspondent focused on Europe and with extensive experience in the Middle East and South Asia
BERLIN – Voters in central Bavaria, southern Germany, seem to have dealt a blow to the conservative allies of Chancellor Angela Merkel on Sunday.
The result, if confirmed, marks a moment of humility for the Christian Social Union, a party that has governed for decades, while strengthening the chances of left and right players in a election defined by polarized opinions on immigration.
Votes for the Bavarian state parliament have rarely been competitive these days. The CSU was a postwar juggernaut of Bavaria, leading the region for 61 consecutive years and rarely needing a partner to do it.
The party should continue to govern even after Sunday's elections. The expected results based on polls at the exit of polling stations Sunday night showed that the share of the vote of the CSU had fallen sharply, from nearly half in 2013 to barely more than a third, with 35, 5%. Parties on both sides – the Greens on the left (19%) and the Alternative for Germany (AfD) on the far right – 11% – have severely undermined the traditional dominance of the CSU.
If the results are valid, the CSU will have to enter into an agreement with one or more competitors to stay in power in a state known for its alpine beauty and industrial strength.
The planned results sent a stream of green confetti raining over gregarious Greens activists to the party's party night headquarters. There was an equally exuberant celebration among AfD supporters.
It was a different story for the CSU, with the severe Bavarian Prime Minister Markus Söder telling the faithful that the result "was not easy".
"We will accept it with humility. We will have to learn from it. We must analyze it precisely, "he said.
But Söder insisted that CSU would continue to run the state government, despite a result that is the party's second worst party in its history. The CSU, he said, "is not only the strongest party, but it has been given a clear mandate to govern."
[The far right is back in the Reichstag, bringing with it taunts and insults]
The elections were closely followed in Germany and the results seem to correspond to a pattern observed both in the country and on the continent. The traditional centrist parties that formerly flirted with absolute majorities of the vote are dying out. Niche parties and extreme political parties win as the electorate fragments into increasingly finer fragments.
At the national level, this has meant a record seven parties in parliament since last year's elections and a government coalition with a deep dysfunction of three.
Sunday's result is likely to resonate in Berlin, where it will be seen as a further blow to Merkel's once powerful merger with its own Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and its Bavarian sister CSU.
Since the CDU / CSU faction was disappointed in last year's vote, Merkel has seen her authority weaken at home and abroad when she struggled to keep her job for 13 years .
However, the apparent humiliation of the CSU could also ease Merkel's life from a point of view: his main rival in the government, the Minister of the Interior and head of the CSU, Horst Seehofer, risks receiving calls to resignation.
Seehofer has caused repeated clashes with his boss this year over immigration and almost toppled the government this summer. Her challenge to Merkel was widely viewed as a deliberate strategy of the CSU to prove to Bavarian voters that the party could be as severe in terms of security and safety as its insurgent rivals within the AfD.
But if that was the goal, the effort would fail. The UHC has failed to convince right-wing voters to return from the AfD, while more centrist and liberal supporters have defected to the progressive-minded Greens.
"The people who voted for them for 60 years no longer vote for them. And it's because of their polarizing and inhumane policy, "said Paul Knoblach, a 12th generation Bavarian farmer.
Knoblach was a long-time supporter of CSU and volunteered for his campaigns. But on Sunday, at age 64, he went to the state parliament for the first time. And he did it in green.
Luisa Beck contributed to this report.
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