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You will notice the significant margins of error in our estimates of the Senate. This includes our overall estimates with Republicans expected to win 52 seats, but no more than 47 and 57 seats. It may seem crazy, although it really is not the case when there are a lot of tight races.
At the moment, there are nine incredible races that are within 6 percentage points. These include Arizona, Florida, Indiana, Missouri, Montana, Nevada, North Dakota, Tennessee and Texas. Democrats are currently favored in five of these breeds: Arizona, Florida, Indiana, Missouri and Montana. Republicans are currently favored in four countries: Nevada, North Dakota, Tennessee and Texas.
There are five other races in the Senate where a party is strongly favored, but where a victory of the other is on the verge of error: Minnesota special election, Mississippi special election, New Jersey, West Virginia and Wisconsin. These errands are in the margin of error, although one of the candidates is favored by at least 9 percentage points. All except Mississippi are favored to go to Democrats.
Let's go through these races and see what happens in three big scenarios.
Everything happens as we think: Suppose each party wins all the races it was preferred to, the Republicans will then have 51 seats on 49 Democrat seats.
You will notice that this split between 51 and 49 is less favorable to Republicans than the overall estimate provided by the model. The main reason is that the Democratic leaders in Arizona, Florida, Indiana and Missouri are all 3 points or less. Only one of the Republican benefits is this little one (Nevada). Based on previous elections, the model believes that Democrats are more likely to lose one of these seats.
Do not forget: it is likely that the next Senate will not be divided between 51 Republicans and 49 Democrats or 52 Republicans and 48 Democrats. These are just two of the most likely scenarios that will occur.
A Senate in which Republicans control between 50 and 53 seats is not only within the margin of error, but within limits.
Democrats have a good night: Let's say the Democrats won all the races in the 6 points. This means that they occupy all the places in which they are favored, plus Nevada, North Dakota, Tennessee and Texas. That would give them 53 seats to Republicans 47 seats. It's pretty much their best scenario.
There is a very low probability (out of the 95% confidence interval) that they win all these goals, as well as the Mississippi special election. This election involves a strange primary in the jungle in which Republican Senator Cindy Hyde-Smith and Republican Chris McDaniel face Democrat Mike Espy. If McDaniel and Espy argue, the Democrats have a real chance. At the present time, it is highly likely that Hyde-Smith and Espy will qualify for the second round at the end of November. Hyde-Smith is favored by 13 points in this second round.
More likely than all these scenarios, but still favorable to the Democrats, if they win all the seats that are preferred to them, plus Nevada and the special election of Mississippi, in North Dakota, Tennessee or Texas. Such a result lies within the margin of error, even if the chances of it happening are diminishing day by day.
It would be interesting if the Democrats won all the seats they held in Nevada and if McDaniel and Espy qualified for the second round. This would mean that the majority in the Senate would be decided at the end of November.
Republicans have a good night: One could say that spending a good night for Republicans, is to maintain their majority. I will push a little further and say that they have a significant seat gain.
This would happen if the Republicans won all the races in the 6 points. It means winning all the races for which they are favored plus Arizona, Florida, Indiana, Missouri and Montana. This gives them 56 seats in total. This is not a particularly wild scenario. Arizona, Florida, Indiana and Missouri are all within 3 points. They could easily go the other way. Remember: President Donald Trump won all these states in 2016. We also lack public survey data in Montana. Some internal polls of Republicans suggest that the race is closer to it than we currently believe.
Winning even three of those five races in the hands of Republicans would give them 54 seats, which would give them much more respite in the next Senate.
Getting more than 57 seats for Republicans is a bit more difficult task, but remember that there are four seats on which Democrats are favored more than 6 points while remaining within the margin of error. If the polls are underestimating Republicans now, one of these seats may fall. I will keep a close eye on West Virginia, which Trump captured by more than 40 points in 2016.
Of course, if Republicans actually get six seats in the Senate, the big news of the election night is probably not that huge gain.
It's probably that Republicans have also held the House. It is extremely unlikely that the national environment that allowed Republicans to control 57 seats in the next Congress does not also return a Republican majority to the House.
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