The Falcons have really played in the playoffs. They showed the winning formula against

The Falcons ended their series of three-game defeats on Sunday with a win over the Buccaneers. The Falcons (2-4) are still the last in the NFC South, but do they have a realistic chance of reaching the playoffs?

It's unlikely, but not weird. Winning the division is a long fight but, after Sunday's games, the statistical model of FiveThirtyEight.com gives the Falcons 28 percent to qualify for the playoffs. This is the seventh best chance among the NFC teams, who will send six in the playoffs.

(The odds of the Football Outsider series are much more skeptical of the Falcons' odds – before Sunday's games, it gave them a 7.9% chance, which will only be updated later in the week.)

If the Falcons can win, say, three of the next four teams to end up at 5-5, then they will find themselves at the heart of the NFC Wild Card race instead of being on their edges. After this week's games, only two NFC teams, the Rams (6-0) and Saints (4-1), will have four or more wins. Do not forget the Saints lost at home against the Bucs and would have lost against the Browns, an earlier edition at Baker Mayfield, without the missing Cleveland kicker.

Falcons will not have much luck running if their defense does not improve. It is unrealistic to expect the defense to be effective with two top players on the injured reserve (Deion Jones and Keanu Neal) and another (Ricardo Allen) who played a key role in the communication. These players have helped a lot with two things the unit struggles with the most: cover and tackle.

But the Falcons will have a real chance if their defense can reach the average or almost. The next four games give them a chance to solve their defense problems against mid-size offensive teams.

There is no formidable quarterback among the Giants, Washington, Browns and Cowboys. The Giants are the only medium offensive team. Washington is below average at the attack and the Browns are bad. The Cowboys will have to repeat the performance of Sunday against Jacksonville before believing that their attack is good.

The Falcons were better defensive against the Bucs. As I wrote after the game, it seems ridiculous after the Falcons allowed 512 yards and 8.1 yards per game. But I think the Falcons have shown the defensive formula they can use to win games: get your opponents to make their way to the field in small pieces and get takeaways.

The Bucs played 63 pieces and five were explosive (defined as more than 10 yards and more than 20 yards). In the first game of the season, while the Falcons were healthy on defense, the Eagles played four explosive games out of a total of 64 games. Tampa Bay is much better on offense than the Eagles, so it's a sign of progress for the Falcons defense.

This bent but non-breaking action plan only works if the Falcons continue to score at a high level and maintain a lead or keep their deficits within the bounds of a score. The plan worked in the first half against the Bucs, when the Falcons forced three straight innings and scored 14 points during that period. It nearly collapsed in the third quarter, when the Falcons limited the Bucs to three points on two possessions, but hit three times in a row.

The offensive will have to do most of the work for the Falcons. This should also be possible in the next four games. None of the opponents are as bad as the defending Bucs, but the Giants and Washington are not much better. The Browns have a very good defense but have left only 38 points home to the Chargers, who are a little better than the Falcons on the offensive side. Dallas is about defensively average.

The Falcons have not come out of the playoffs of the NFC. The NFL system is designed to create a group of indistinguishable teams looking to stay around .500 in December and then get some good breaks. The Falcons have already had some with defensive injuries but, against the Bucs, they showed how to win anyway.