College Football Playoff Prediction Predictions, 2 weeks in advance

Although we do not yet have a college football ranking at College College, the committee is not that mysterious. We can have good assumptions about how the teams would pile up at this point, if it was to get out of the top 25.

(I mean, it's a bit of a mystery intentionallyJust because it barely explains its decisions, but if you've been following it for a few years, you can begin to understand how they think, whether you agree or disagree.)

It's time to bring back an annual exercise, which has already predicted top-ranked teams (Penn State's big leap in 2016 and Georgia's Bama win in 2017, for example). After looking at the numbers that tend to align well with the PSC rankings, here's how I suppose these teams would rank. Many are in a group for the moment.

The tide did not play the most difficult program, but it's not nearly as weak as what you've been told. After weeks of fans in the state of Ohio telling me that their schedule makes Bama ashamed, we have this:

AP Poll

And is the destruction of Bama at 5-2 Ole Miss better than the fight of Ohio State's neutral venues with 3-3 TCU? My friend, not bad.

According to the weekly rankings of Bill Connelly's forces:

By the way, here's the SOS standings for each of the unbeaten teams:

47. Our Lady

54. State of Ohio

56. Alabama

74. Clemson

89. State NC

115. UCF

125. Cincinnati

127. USF

Nobody played anyone, I suppose.

In the field, Bama's has destroyed everything. The committee had previously Bama teams as dominant as mediocre.

Everyone had a fight or two against smaller teams. Good luck sorting out the calendar strength stuff here:

• Ohio State is ESPN's No. 1 ESPN record holder, who tries to judge the average performance of a Top 25 team on a given schedule.
• Clemson is the # 1 in the CPI, a measure of win percentage similar to basketball RPI and an example of committee-friendly calculation (they do not look exactly like complex algorithms).
• Notre Dame is among the top three in these two categories and has probably beaten a better team than any other country in the country (Michigan).

Since all of this is closer than fans of each team would have expected, watch how each team actually played.

The computers favor Clemson then Ohio State on the ground. The committee would likely attribute to Notre Dame the merit of having played mainly since Ian Book took office at QB, but the Irishman is only 18th in the S & P + summary.

I guess it would be Clemson at No. 2, then Ohio State. The committee would consider for the second year in a row Clemson's injuries to Syracuse.

LSU is a fun puzzle. Was it the team that was dominated by Miami, which beat Auburn less than Tennessee or the Mississippi State, which was beaten by Florida, who underperformed Louisiana Tech and who ranks 14th in the S & P +? Or are they the No. 3 Force of the Registration Force, who destroyed Georgia in the most impressive win of the season?

Michigan is only a little simpler. Their only defeat was a loss to an undefeated 5, and they have since slapped just about everyone, but the best team they beat also lost against BYU.

The Texas record is superb, but how many times this year have they looked like a top 10 team? Just once, no? They are N ° 43 in S & P + and have an ugly loss in Maryland. And even that victory over OR was doubtful. The Sooners beat Texas 3 yards per game.

Yet it was a victory over OR. I do not see how the committee would have a Texas as high as the AP (No. 7!), But as I do not know who's going there, let's put Texas in the same group as the OU. The committee could decide that face to face makes the difference, I suppose.

BTW, Kentucky ranks 6th in record strength and 9th in CPI. He faces Florida and the state of Mississippi while losing only in OT at Texas A & M. I would have the UK on Texas, but no one cares what I think.

A great mix of all these rankings, but with some specific adjustments.

The Hawkeyes are No. 19 in the AP poll, but No. 13 in the S & P + summary and No. 12 in Massey Composite, which brings together dozens of computing powers (and some polls) into a leaderboard. I would bet the committee would rather have them as # 15 for now.

Undefeated, UCF ranks on average 13th among all non-AP rankings listed here. To put the Knights in 13th place would be three behind their PA position, and you could probably drop them about two or three after that, depending on how the committee treated them last year.

(Side note: I reviewed a more complete history of the CFP ranking and found that the committee always underestimate the nonpowers as much as we think. For every Marshall 2014, there is an East Carolina really overestimated in 2014 – but that 's because the ECU has played against several P5 teams. UCF 2018 played only 3-4 Pitt.)

The Ducks, who suffered a loss, are 12th in the overall rankings and have defeated Washington, but each move gives them a much lower position. They are No. 23 in the strength of the record, 34 in the S & P +, 37 in the CPI, and so on.

The committee does not cite any, but whatever the numbers it uses, there is no reason to think that the Ducks would be ahead of NC, Kentucky (whose win in Florida is better than that of Oregon in Washington), Texas A & M (who played Bama reasonably hard and should have defeated Clemson), and perhaps others.

I will update this a few times until then, based on the next two weekends.