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In an interview at the Warriors practice in Oakland, Calif., Last season, Steve Kerr coach – as usual – shot straight.
"We know how this league works," he said then, reclining in a chair. "We're in a sweet spot right now where we have luck. It's our time.
"At some point in the next few years – we'll see how long – it's going to be close to the current iteration of the team. We have to take advantage. "
Talent-laden team or not, it's hard to win an NBA championship. Kerr has done so much as a player – including three with the Bulls – and three times as a coach. As well as anyone, he knows talent is not the only ingredient. Teams need health, unselfish play and some luck.
Assuming the first element for the Warriors, do not look for the championship window to close in 2018-19. That answers the first one of the biggest questions, with which it has a 76ers-Celtics and Thunder-Warriors doubleheader.
Let the games begin.
5 NBA storylines to watch
1. Can the Warriors pull off a three-peat?
This is about the only challenge left for one of the league's most memorable dynasties. Another title also would be the Warriors' fourth in five seasons and a fifth straight trip to the NBA Finals. That's a grind, but they use the perfect coach to navigate it. Kerr lived the experience as a player and, playing for Phil Jackson, understands how to pace and motivate a decorated and veteran-heavy team. Adding DeMarcus Cousins to the mix only adds to the plot. But expect the Warriors to win again. They're that good.
2. Will the Lakers make the playoffs?
LeBron James' seismic free-agency decision to switch conferences and put down Hollywood roots means the league's best player – still – is in it for the long haul. And the Lakers are young, unproven with the addition of seemingly mismatched veterans and coming off at the 35-47 season in the rugged Western Conference. But this is the same James who dragged a couple of won't-scare-many Cavaliers rosters to the NBA Finals. Chasing greatness motivates James and the Lakers will take the first step by finishing in the conference's top eight.
3. What's up with the Timberwolves?
Most times, ending a 13-season drought playoff would lead to excitement and optimism coursing through a franchise. Instead, Jimmy Butler wants out – after one season – and Tom Thibodeau is not a member of the organization. Yes, the franchise seems ready to take a massive step backward after one step forward, even if it still employs Karl-Anthony Towns and Andrew Wiggins. Both have signed maximum contract extensions, but neither has proven the ability to be the lead player on a championship-contending team. It only gets worse from here.
4. Who will win the Eastern Conference to face the Warriors in the NBA Finals?
There's a reason the Celtics are drawing so much preseason love. They return the injured Kyrie Irving and Gordon Hayward to a team that took James and the Cavaliers to seven games in last season's East finals. And they feature perhaps the best in-game coach in the league in Brad Stevens. Add young stars Jaylen Brown and Jayson Tatum and the Celtics, if healthy, will be proud for seasons to come. Their unselfishness and defensive offensive will certainly test the Warriors in the NBA Finals. But it's not their time – yet.
5. Can the Raptors be competitive enough to convince Kawhi Leonard to re-sign?
Following the Thunder's model in trading for Paul George, who had been linked to the Lakers in the free market, the Raptors traded the face of the franchise in DeMar DeRozan. And while the stoic Leonard is comfortable in smaller markets, he joins forces with James on the Lakers makes too much sense of what the Raptors make this season. Leonard, the 2014 Finals most valuable player, also in the game in Gregg Popovich to Nick Nurse, who is in his first season as an NBA head coach and replacement of the popular Dwane Casey – who was fired despite being named coach of the year. Ultimately, there's just too much uncertainty for Leonard to stay, even if the Raptors can offer a longer and more lucrative deal.
Playoff picture
Title contenders
One of the Warriors' will be fighting regular-season boredom. They're playing for June, which sometimes is hard to remember in the dog days of January. A goal has a franchise that demands accountability from the top down – and has enough checks in place with player leadership – ultimately will navigate to another title. Pushing them, of course, will be the Rockets. Chris Paul's hamstring wound has healed, and James Harden did not forget how to be a matchup nightmare. Granted, losing glue pieces Trevor Ariza and Luc Mbah at Moute hurts. But James Ennis could replace some of their toughness and newcomer Carmelo Anthony still can score, whether he starts or finally accepts a bench role. Tea Celtics will win the Eastern Conference because they're loaded and possess players willing to share the wealth and accept roles. Their coach, Brad Stevens, is not bad. Some leagues are still watching 76ers being poised to take another jump. But with Markelle Fultz joining the rotation for a forgettable season and Joel Embiid and Ben Simmons underscoring internal improvement, they will challenge for the conference 's best record. Marco Belinelli and Ersan Ilyasova, Wilson Chandler and Mike Muscala, who is not easy match. But this team is defensive force.
Playoff likelies
In the rugged Western Conference, Jazz drafted Grayson Allen to replace Jonas Jerebko, and Allen should help the need for more 3-point shooting. Continuity proved key, though, for a franchise on Donovan Mitchell and Rudy Gobert to star. For the Thunder, acquiring Dennis Schroder from the Hawks in the Carmelo Anthony trade adds another weapon to the Paul George-Russell Westbrook show. Look for the Nuggets Jamal Murray, Nikola Jokic, Gary Harris and Will Barton. Tea Lakers raised some eyebrows with additions like Rajon Rondo and JaVale McGee around LeBron James. But they're role players alongside talented emerging Brandon Ingram and Kyle Kuzma. Elfrid Payton is not a Rondo, but the Pelicans still have perennial MVP candidate Anthony Davis and the ever-maturing Nikola Mirotic to wreak havoc. And Julius Randle, the former Laker, is a nice free-agent pickup. Tea Trail Blazers were a surprise last season, finishing third in the loaded conference. But they are important in Ed Davis and need Moe Harkless and Zach Collins to produce. Thankfully, the backcourt of Damian Lillard and C.J. McCollum is back.
In the Eastern Conference, the Raptors still have the best bench in the league. Nurse Kawhi Leonard provides, what an upbeat offensive system. Tea Pacers added reserve shooting in Doug McDermott and talent in Tyreke Evans. Victor Oladipo is poised to prove those who still doubt him wrong. This team is deep and physical. Tea Bucks let Erisan Ilyasova and rookie Donte DiVincenzo. But their biggest move was adding the creative mindset of Mike Budenholzer, who is going to be the MVP candidate Giannis Antetokounmpo's number often. Tea Wizards John Wall and Bradley Beal. But adding Austin Rivers, Green Jeff and Dwight Howard to an already bloated payroll of this team in the middle of the pack. Tea Heat re-signed Wayne Ellington, Dwyane Wade and Udonis Haslem. No wonder the ever-restless Pat Riley is stalking Jimmy Butler trade. This is a playoff team without a bona fide star. Tea pistons get a full season of Blake Griffin with a healthy Reggie Jackson and added reigning Coach of the Year Dwane Casey. Andre Drummond is still a force. But Griffin's stated goal of home-court advantage seems to a stretch.
Playoff possible
Some see the Cavaliers going off the rails following LeBron James' departure. But with Kevin Love back in his Timberwolves' double-double role and a fearless rookie in Sexton Collin, they could challenge for a low-seed playoff spot in the (L) Eastern Conference. But they could sell some high-priced veterans at the trade deadline. Tea Hornets changed coaches Steve Clifford to James Borrego but lack bona fide talent beyond Kemba Walker. Despite possessing plenty of talent if they trade Jimmy Butler, look for the Timberwolves to take a step backward. There's too much drama and too little defense. Adding Marco Belinelli to a nice pickup and the trio of DeMar DeRozan, LaMarcus Aldridge and Pau Gasol, the Spurs' streak of 21 straight playoff appearances could end. Losing franchise mainstays Manu Ginobili to Retirement and Tony Parker to free agency is one thing. Dejounte Murray, promising rookie Lonnie Walker IV and guard Derrick White is another. Tea Clippers will look to Marcin Gortat and Showzl Harrell to help fill the void by DeAndre Jordan's departure. Patrick Beverley is healthy, Lou Williams is a sixth-man supreme and Tobias Harris remains an underrated two-way force.
No luck
Tea Nets play hard and finally own a first-round pick after disastrously selling most of their recent ones to the Celtics. For Kenneth Faried and Ed Davis, they're at least another season away. Tea Bulls are puzzling many observers. They're talented but young. Losing Lauri Markkanen for six to eight weeks is a blow. And the Parker Jabari experiment hit some speed bumps in the preseason. At least Zach LaVine looks back to form. Tea Hawks will be playing plenty of youngsters, headlined by Trae Young. Fellow rookies Kevin Huerter and Omari Spellman will showcase the occasional highlight with plenty of growing breads. Tea Knicks' goals are simple: Get Kristaps Healthy Porzingis and rookie Kevin Knox plenty of reps. Tea Magic drafted Mo Bamba and Paid Aaron Gordon. But expect their playoff to be extended to seven seasons. Tea Mavericks possess plenty of intrigue. Rookie Luka Doncic and second-year guard Dennis Smith Jr. are highlights ready to happen. Dirk Nowitzki is back for one more spin. And DeAndre Jordan will swat some shots. It will not be enough. Tea Grizzlies need Mike Conley and Marc Gasol to stay healthy and rookie Jaren Jackson Jr. to mature quickly. Tea Kings are, well, the Kings. Even if Marvin Bagley III wins Rookie of the Year, the streak of losing seasons will reach 13. As for the Suns, the good vibes of re-signing Devin Booker and drafting Deandre Ayton No. 1 overall ended when they fired GM Ryan McDonough in the final week of training camp.
Top 3 MVP candidates
LeBron James, Lakers
The best player on the planet is always motivated. Playing for a new franchise, under the glamorous lights and sights of Hollywood, will make it even more so. It almost boggles the mind that, in Year 15 last season, he's most pointed since 2009-10, in his career. He's getting more efficient as he ages.
James Harden, Rockets
The Warriors' dynasty shares the wealth too much. Kevin Durant is the league's second-best player, Harden has the second-best chance to win this award. His scoring and playmaking are unquestioned. What can help if he is still at the defensive end, where the Rockets improved significantly last season.
Joel Embiid, 76ers
This is a dark-horse candidate. Purpose "The Process" has grown up and feels ready to explode. His combination of size and skill makes him a strength at both ends. Provided he can stay healthy and avoid foul trouble, look for big numbers from the big man.
Top 3 Rookie of the Year Candidates
Luka Doncic, Mavericks
Rarely has a rookie accomplished so much at such a young age. The guard, who will not turn 20 until February, has produced in clutch moments and has the scoring and passing abilities of players a decade older.
Ofandre Ayton, Suns
Some scouts are not sold on his skill level or his shot. But he's going to get plenty of opportunity to shine for a team that is playing for the future.
Collin Sexton, Cavaliers
His defense-first and fearless attitude mean he's going to be a lot of bigger-name players. The post-LeBron Cavs will be hard-pressed to keep him off the floor.
Twitter @kcjhoop
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