WASHINGTON – The international outcry over Saudi Arabia's alleged involvement in the disappearance of Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi in Turkey has triggered a surge in oil prices and many uncertainties, given the country's major influence Middle East on the world market.

That should translate into pump prices as the United States, Saudi Arabia and Turkey meet to find a solution to the geopolitical crisis that began just two weeks ago when Mr Khashoggi he made a routine visit to the consulate of Saudi Arabia in Istanbul. and has not been seen since.

Caroline Bain, Chief Economist of Commodities at Capital Economics, said in a research note published this week that it was unlikely that Saudi Arabia would reduce its oil production after criticizing the alleged death Khashoggi in Saudi prisons, mainly because the Kingdom has every interest in preserving its dominant position. Iran – Saudi Arabia's bitter rival – in the Middle East's energy economy.

According to analysts, Iran could enter the oil market if Saudi Arabia reduced its production. Iran faces new US sanctions on its oil exports, which will come into effect next month.

Bain warned, however, that a substantial reduction in production, comparable to that imposed by the Kingdom in the 1970s, could push the price of oil up to $ 150 per barrel. Although this scenario is unlikely, "there is no doubt that Saudi Arabia has the capacity to organize another" oil shock "on its own," wrote Bain.

Warren Patterson, a commodity analyst at ING, told CNBC's Squawk Box Europe Tuesday that any move to cut Saudian production "will only accelerate the pace of the energy transition."

"If the Saudis were allowed to do that, they would shoot themselves in the foot," he said. "In the short and medium term, we will see a gradual destruction of demand, but the biggest problem is long-term."

Phil Flynn, an energy analyst, told the Associated Press that Saudi Arabia would only get hurt if it caused a spike in gasoline prices because it would "put the world into recession and it would reduce the demand for oil. "

The price of a barrel of crude oil West Texas Intermediate, the benchmark US crude, was trading around $ 72 a barrel Tuesday afternoon. The price of Brent crude, the global benchmark, was trading around $ 82. The price difference between the two products is mainly due to energy pipeline constraints in the United States and international geopolitical factors.

Saudi Arabia produces about 12% of the world's oil and remains the world's largest exporter of this product. In terms of US dependence on Saudi oil last month, Saudi Arabia ranked second as the source of US crude oil imports after Canada, with an average of 948,000 barrels per day in gross US imports, according to the Congressional Research Service. Saudi Arabia produced 7.6 million barrels of crude oil a day.

More: US arms sales become a sore spot as President Trump presses Saudi Arabia for the missing journalist

Danielle Pletka, vice president of foreign policy and defense of the American Enterprise Institute, a center-right think-tank, said Saudi Arabia had the ability to keep oil on the market, thus influencing the world price and placing the country "at the pinnacle of the global energy market."

She said other oil producing countries, such as Russia and Venezuela, are not in an economic position to curb their production.

"The bottom line is that energy independence does not exist," Pletka said, pointing out that, depending on the price of oil, it might be cheaper for the United States to buy oil from the United States. Saudi Arabia and other countries than to produce it locally.

Tensions rose again over the weekend when President Donald Trump threatened Saudi Arabia with "severely punishing" and raised a punishable multi-billion dollar sale of arms between the two. allies, in an interview on CBS '"60 Minutes" show. which was broadcast Sunday.

For its part, the Saudi government is attacking its detractors and will not back down after the condemnation of many world leaders for its alleged role in the death of Khashoggi. On October 2, the American resident and writer of the Washington Post, living in exile, disappeared after entering the Saudi consulate in Istanbul. US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo traveled to Riyadh where he met with Saudi officials, including King Salman and his son. , Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman.

More: Trump claims that the Saudi prince has "totally denied any knowledge" of the events that led to the disappearance of a Saudi journalist in Turkey

Over the weekend, as various media reported evidence linking Khashoggi's disappearance and alleged death to Saudi Arabia, the British government threatened to continue punishment such as economic sanctions, political pressure outside or even "false repeated accusations".

Turki Aldakhil, managing director of the Saudi-controlled Al Arabiya television channel, wrote Sunday on the news channel's website that US sanctions on the Kingdom would affect oil production and that prices could go from $ 80 a barrel to $ 400 a barrel.

"If US sanctions are imposed on Saudi Arabia, we will face an economic disaster that will upset the whole world," he wrote. "Riyadh is the capital of its oil, and that would affect the production of oil before any other essential product. This would prevent Saudi Arabia from pledging to produce 7.5 million barrels. "

"If the price of oil reaching $ 80 irritated President Trump, no one should exclude that the price reaches $ 100, or even $ 200, or even double," he wrote. "He's going to stab his own economy to death, even if he thinks he's stabbing only Riyadh!"

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