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I'm not going to complain about this fantasy football, because it's a week ago my bad luck this year. Instead, I'm going to write about happy things in football!
Happy things like:
Eric Ebron: Ebron took a lot of crap during his Detroit tenure, primarily for being drafted in real life just ahead of Odell Beckham Jr. and Aaron Donald. It's true that he was never a star, but he was not so bad at the reputation made him out to be. Now in the middle of a breakout year in Indianapolis, it's nice to see him silencing the critics and rewarding fantasy owners.
[The Week 7 player rankings]
Julio Jones: No, really, Julio Jones. Yes, he has zero touchdowns. But who really cares? He's the No. 6 PPR receiver this year. If you were told that it would be the case on draft day, maybe you would have Slightly disappointed that it was not so-so, but you could not legitimately have complained. This is all a perception issue – it's fun that A.J. Green, for example, has five touchdowns, but heck, Jones still has him beat by 6 PPR points. And I'm going to say it forever – positive regression is coming for Jones. He'll score.
James Conner: Even if it 's short-lived, even if Le'Veon Bell returns and Conner becomes an afterthought, he sees this (PPR RB5) has been great. And it would be great if any backup RB did not know what he was doing, but considering his story and his cancer recovery, it's even cooler.
Drew Brees: Somehow, Brees is a surefire Hall of Famer who just set the passing record, and I still think he's made a career out of being underrated. Not to brag (who am I kidding, totally to brag), but I think I was the high man on the preseason, ranking him as my No. 4 fantasy QB and picking him to be MVP, and he's even exceeded my expectations.
There. No complaints. This week at least.
Now, on to the advice. This is my weekly look at some of the best and worst fantasy situations of the week, and the information we've compiled at Pro Football Focus. It starts off with my mismatch of the week.
Good luck in Week 7, and here you go on the next week.
Mismatch of the Week
David Johnson, RB, Arizona Cardinals
The Cardinals in front of the Broncos Thursday night. The Broncos have allowed 550 rushing yards to run back over the past two weeks. The Broncos have given up eight touchdowns to running back in six weeks. That's … really it. Normally I write more here. This time, I do not need to.
Good situations
Baker Mayfield, QB, Cleveland Browns
14.5 fantasy points per game, Mayfield goal has been quietly been really good. He's the No. 9 QB in overall PFF grading, No. 12 in passing grade, despite a 55.6 percent completion percentage that ranks for 34th of 37 qualified quarterbacks – only Josh Allen and the man Mayfield, Tyrod Taylor, have a lower percentage . The reason? Drops. Mayfield's receivers have dropped in the past, despite the fact that Mayfield has roughly 100 fewer passes. With Antonio Callaway falling down the depth chart, the combination of Jarvis Landry, David Njoku and Damian Ratley should improve. Against the Buccaneers, Mayfield should have his coming-out party.
Peyton Barber, RB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Coming off the team's bye, the consensus was that the struggling Barber would see his workload ceded to rookie Ronald Jones, who has not been more than a barber, averaging 3.0 yards per carry entering Week 6. Instead , Barber got 13 carries in Week 6 to Jones's one. Barber then put up 82 yards on those carries and added 24 yards and touchdown through the air. The job is still his. Now, Barber gets a Browns defense that's been so-so against the run, but is without LB Joe Schobert for the next few weeks. Schobert has been better off, but the captain of the defense, his absence will be reverberating around the unit, helping the chances of all the Buccaneers.
Willie Snead, WR, Baltimore Ravens
Slot receivers against New Orleans will shine. It's one of the truths of the 2018 season. Snead has run 165 slot roads this year – almost 100 more than teammate John Brown and more than 130 targets Raven – and has 40 targets through six games – only two behind ! "Buzz, and ranks 26th in the league. I'll have a snake Raven receiver in my rankings in Week 7.
Charles Clay, TE, Buffalo Bills
Okay, that's what Zet Ertz, Travis Kelce, and Eric Ebron are all about – and there's no point in telling you that you're always going to use. Instead, we'll discuss a deep lottery ticket in Clay, an ounce that has almost come down to a total of 13 receptions for 119 yards and 0 touchdowns. Clay averaged two targets and 1.3 receptions a game the first three weeks, but four targets and three receptions a game since. He'll have either Nathan Peterman or (somehow!) Derek Anderson throwing assists in Week 7. Peterman has not been well throwing to anybody, but Anderson has focused tight ends heavily on the limited playing time he has had in his career. Against a colts team allowing 6.3 receptions, 75.8 yards and 15.8 fantasy points per game to tight ends, Clay is worth a look at a desperation play.
Bad situations
Drew Brees, QB, New Orleans Saints
We already know that we have a history of being less productive on the road. This week, he's got a lot of things going on in Chicago and Jacksonville. Baltimore has allowed six passing touchdowns – four against the Bengals in the first half of the week, and two in their other 11 halves of football. The next touchdown Baltimore allows the second half of a game to be the first time they've done so all season. Bres is still a monster, so it's still in your lineup, but I would not touch him in DFS unless it's a total flier contrarian play.
Nyheim Hines, RB, Indianapolis Colts
The Bills allowed six touchdowns to run back in Weeks 1 and 2 combined (three to Melvin Gordon, one to Alex Collins, Allen Javorius, and Kenneth Dixon). Since then, in four games, Aaron Jones in Week 4 is the only one running back to the end zone. Meanwhile, Hines has had a productive rookie season for fantasy, but it has become more than 5.5 yards after the catch this year and is barely top 40 in PFF rushing grade among running backs. With Marlon Mack back and active, Hines' keys are only going to go down.
Will Fuller, WR, Houston Texans
Fuller scored 10 touchdowns in his first seven career games with Deshaun Watson active. That's incredible. The last two weeks, though, have been dropped from the end zone, and seen his targets drop – he averaged a total of 48 yards, totaling 48 yards. His decline has coincided with the rise of rookie Keke Coutee, who missed the first two games. Now, with Watson banged up and the Houston offensive line having more holes than all the bagel shops in New York, Fuller needs to be firmly on benches fantasy.
Greg Olsen, TE, Carolina Panthers
As I mentioned above, the state of the tight end is awful, to the point that you have Olsen you probably do not have a better option. But it's worth looking at least. Olsen came back with a respectable seven targets, four receptions, and 48 yards in Week 6, but he's now on a 19-game stretch (dating back to the Panthers' Week 7 bye in 2016) with only three games of more than 60 yards and only two touchdowns in that time. Olsen might still be an elite tight end. But the only evidence we have points to the contrary. If you can afford it, make it come to life before going into fantasy lineups.
Daniel Kelley is the fantasy editor for Pro Football Focus.
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