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LONDON – Theresa May's agreement on Brexit has been hanging on a thread this week after the British government wiped out any hope of reaching an agreement at Thursday's EU Council summit.
The failure of the agreement resulted from threats of resignation from the May government and the growing feeling of pessimism on both sides of the Channel that an agreement on Brexit is likely to be unaffordable.
"Unfortunately, the report on the status of the negotiations that I received from Michel Barnier today, as well as the debate yesterday in the House of Commons, give me no reason to believe. To be optimistic ahead of tomorrow's European Council on Brexit, "said European Council President Donald Tusk in an address: Tuesday.
So, while May goes to Brussels Wednesday to address the European leaders, what hopes still have agreement, how the Prime Minister has reached this point and what are the chances for Britain to end up? to end up without any agreement?
How did we come here?
Sunday afternoon, the British Secretary of Brexit, Dominic Raab, went into a frenzy after going to Brussels to meet Brexit Chief Negotiator Michel Barnier amid rumors that an agreement had already been concluded.
Several reports claimed that an agreement had been reached at the "technical" level, that is to say. between negotiators who are not politicians. However, hopes of an imminent announcement were quickly shattered, with Raab stating that there remained important "blocking points" to an agreement.
In private, Downing Street sources deny that an agreement has ever been considered. "Really, do not believe that kind of thing," said a source close to the prime minister.
"There will be an agreement when it is reached at the political level and there will be no other type of agreement."
"Do not believe anything like that, there will be an agreement when it is reached at the political level and there will be no other type of agreement." – Source close to Theresa May.
The main point of blocking an agreement concerns the "backstop", the insurance policy intended to ensure that the open and frictionless border between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland is preserved regardless of the form Brexit takes.
The EU and the United Kingdom do not agree at all about the form this protection should take and its duration.
The EU's preferred support scheme is for Northern Ireland to actually stay in the customs union and the single market "until" a technology able to maintain the border open Irish is ready for implementation.
However, the British government hates this idea.
First, such an arrangement would create new border checks between Northern Ireland and Great Britain, thus creating a divergence between two members of the United Kingdom. Secondly, the United Kingdom wants the support mechanism to be limited in time so as to prevent the United Kingdom from being stuck in the customs unions of the European Union for years and years.
Instead, the UK government has proposed a counter-proposal that the UK as a whole remain temporarily in a customs union after Brexit. This is not a problem for the EU, but only if the United Kingdom also accepts its support.
Basically, neither side wants to move.
A government source told BI on Tuesday was gloomy about negotiators' chances of overcoming these fundamental differences, saying, "It will be really hard to get it. [a deal] through."
Why is the EU proposal so toxic to the UK?
If May accepted the EU proposal in its current form, she would face fierce opposition to Westminster.
Conservative pro-Brexit MPs threatened to overthrow May as Conservative leader if she agreed and many cabinet ministers would consider resigning. BI announced last week that three ministers – Andrea Leadsom, Penny Mordaunt and Esther McVey – would be willing to resign if May accepted the EU's demands.
The Brexiteers believe that an unlimited safeguard system would imprison the UK in the EU's customs regime for decades, giving rise to what critics call "BRINO" (Brexit name only.) This would prevent the United Kingdom from implementing new free trade agreements, would be limited to compliance with the EU's trade policy.
And then there is the Democratic Unionist Party that supports May's fragile government. Northern Ireland has made it clear that it will not accept any new checks between Northern Ireland and the rest of the United Kingdom.
Sammy Wilson, DUP spokesperson for Brexit, wrote last week that May "would not benefit from the support of the DUP, that the government is trying to bribe us, intimidate us or convince us to accept it" .
"It's a battle of who blinks first – and we've cut our eyelids." – Source DUP.
The main purpose of the DUP is to protect the place of Northern Ireland in the United Kingdom. The party considers any threat in this regard, such as new border controls between the two, as an existential threat unacceptable to Northern Ireland itself.
It is for this reason that the DUP does not seem to bluff. An anonymous source of DUP reportedly said last year: "It's a battle of who blinks first – and we've cut our eyelids."
In a nutshell, if May accepts the EU's proposal, she will enrage a sufficient number of Conservative MPs to trigger a leadership race and lose the support of the DUP deputies, which is the only reason she is still prime. Minister.
So where are we going from here?
A spokeswoman for Theresa May let out a small clue on a possible plan B Tuesday. They told reporters that the Prime Minister's priority was to establish "a mechanism to clearly define how" the backstop will end.
This is significant because May's initial position was that the backstop must have an explicit expiration date. However, the focus now seems to be on the conditions under which the safety net could be removed – and not on a fixed date.
A source close to the Cabinet discussions made a similar suggestion to BI this week, saying the prime minister had focused on creating something that "resembles" a time limit rather than a single one. actual end date.
If the Brexiteers threatening May's position would agree, it's not clear. Government sources say it will be almost impossible to please a considerable number of Conservative MPs, even if May reverses the negotiations.
"If the EU accepted customs support on a UK scale, it would be a huge diplomatic victory for us," said one of them. "But this will be considered a disaster because the United Kingdom will be in a customs union a little longer.It is the perverse place in which we find ourselves."
"I fear that Britain is too proud and that a wounded animal is unleashed before dying" – source of the European Commission.
Barnier proposed in May an extension of one year of the proposed 21-month transition period.
In theory, this would give the UK more time to negotiate a trade deal with the EU comprehensive enough to preserve the Irish border, which means that the safety net would not have to come into play.
However, Barnier is clear on the fact that the UK should still accept the backstop of Northern Ireland, which May has already rejected. Moreover, a prolonged transition would not be very good for pro-Brexit MEPs, who would be appalled by the prospect of the EU's decisions, rules and budget contributions lasting another 12 months.
Ideas are moving but a breakthrough does not seem imminent. And as no further negotiations are scheduled this week, the Prime Minister's visit to Brussels should be another fruitless visit.
No agreement is imminent
Meanwhile, the general picture shows that a Brexit without agreement is considered more likely than ever before.
Donald Tusk, President of the European Council, believes that a scenario of "non-agreement" likely to wreak havoc in British life and cause serious headaches to EU Member States was "more probable than ever before ".
An official from the European Commission, to whom BI spoke this week, echoed Tusk.
"We do not want more non-market than the UK," they said.
"But the agreement will definitely be postponed until November, if that happens at all," they said.
"Even if we can agree on an agreement, what happens in the British Parliament is a totally different matter."
"They do not want to negotiate with Corbyn or Johnson, but sympathy and understanding are not the same as giving someone what he wants." – Source European Commission.
Figures in Brussels indicate that the ball is in the May camp and that the stalemate stopping the talks stems from the Prime Minister's weak stance at Westminster, and not from the intransigence on the part of the Prime Minister. 39; EU.
"They [the EU] try to help him. They do not want a change of government, "said another source from the European Commission. They do not want to negotiate with [Jeremy] Corbyn or [Boris] Johnson
"But sympathy and understanding are not the same as giving someone what he wants."
They fear that if the two sides continue to fight to reach a compromise, the climate rises and the UK can organize another debate that will take place too late to be corrected, which will lead to a Brexit without agreement.
"My fear is that there is still a lot of composure and that, without being tasteless on the crop, I'm afraid that Britain is too proud and that a wounded animal is unleashed before to die, "the source told the Commission.
Both parties are determined to avoid any agreement. It is even suggested that the negotiators be prepared to wait for the European Council summit of 13 December to reach an agreement. This would give the parliaments of Westminster and Brussels much less time than they expected to consider and ratify the agreement.
But difficult times call for desperate measures and, as things stand, the situation is becoming more and more desperate.
