Trump wants to carry Republicans … unless they lose

He is on the run, trying to change the subject after being criticized for his moderate reaction to the disappearance of Washington Post columnist Jamal Khashoggi at the Saudi Arabian consulate in Istanbul.

Earlier this month, the president tried to explain to his supporters that even if he did not personally run for elections on Nov. 6, they should treat the elections as his own. Was acting from 2016 or its run for reelection in 2020.

"I'm not on the ticket but Congress is on the ticket and I'm trying to tell my people – it's the same as me in a sense." is the same thing, think of it as the same as me, "Trump said in a speech at the White House Rose Garden on Oct. 1.

"No, I think I'm helping people," he said, citing successful annotations not taking into account the fact that choosing favorites for Republican base voters among whom he is very popular It's not the same as a national confrontation with the Democrats. .

His response to the AP clarified one thing: there will be no post-election session comparable to the hardships his predecessors George W. Bush (Barackin) and Barack Obama (blowing) have been forced to endure after their mandate. defeats.

The heads I win, the tails you lose

The head of the president I won is you who lose the strategy in which he claims both a credit and eliminates the blame, is one of the politicians like Trump, happy to live in contradictory realities and not afraid not to deny something that was filmed on tape. strong, could tempt with an impassive face.

This is consistent with his own refusal to admit wrongdoing or an error that has occurred throughout his presidency. And this allows him to maintain his image as a winner, at least until he faces the voters in his 2020 electoral race.

But it is also an approach that goes against the political reality that its own unpopularity is a pillar for Republicans occupying seats in the House, especially in suburbs outside cities such as Minneapolis, Chicago and Detroit, where his populist nationalism does not connect. as well as in the deep red territory where he holds gatherings.

In 2010, Obama's approval rate, as measured by Gallup, was 45% and his Democrats lost 63 seats in mid-term.

Bush was 38% in his second mid-term election in 2006 and saw Republicans lose 30 seats. Ronald Reagan was close to Trump's number – 42% when he faced his first midterms in 1982 and the GOP lost 28 seats.

Although the situation in the Senate is much better for Republicans, a repeat of mid-term history this year would mean that Republicans would lose their majority in the House, which could have serious consequences for Trump's presidency , to the extent that Democrats need a net gain of 23 seats to take power.

2016 again

In many ways, Trump, although the most unconventional president of the last decades, is facing a problem common to his predecessors: he tries to transfer his own popularity among grassroots activists, who raised him to the House -Blanche, to much less charismatic legislators.

That's one of the reasons – with the fact that the president never seems as liberated or as happy as when he's on stage – that he's been organizing for months huge rallies in the a stadium reminiscent of the demonstrations he had made at home two years ago. .

The President is convinced that he sees the same kind of reaction before mid-session.

"I went out and made speeches and I met tens of thousands of people … honestly, it sounds a lot like what it was in 16," Trump told the AP.

But any further argument that Trump would say it was out of place for Republican losses in November would also be undermined by clear evidence that his turbulent presidency was a major motivator for voters going to the polls.

Six in ten voters said the president was an important factor in the September poll, with 37% being opposed to him and 23% voting to support him.

The number of people who will actually vote against the president was only beaten by Bush in 2006, while 39 percent of registered voters said they would use their vote against him.

The intensity of voters' feelings towards the president nevertheless gives him some hope, as this suggests that he could defy the former and recreate that feverish support among the base of the GOP who confused the investigators and won him the shock victory two years ago.

Certainly, no recent president has done as much to cultivate his grassroots constituency and so little to touch everyone else as Trump during his two years in office. If 2016 was a guide, pollsters might have trouble accurately assessing the composition of the electorate and the intensity of Trump's supporters.

Although Election Day is fast approaching, 19 days is an eternity in Trump-era politics – in which every day was felt like a surprise in October – so it's not impossible for the President to get there to organize an event or controversy that ignites a late fire under the GOP voters.

The strange duality of this year's electoral map could also offer the president a way to proclaim at least a partial victory on the morning of November 7.

The most competitive Senate seats in this cycle are held by state democrats such as Indiana, North Dakota, Missouri, Florida and Montana, where the President has been a resounding success. in 2016 and where the satisfaction of his presidency is high.

Republicans are hoping that the intense battle for confirmation won by new Supreme Court Justice Brett Kavanaugh will send a shock to their base in such states and that a strong economy could help elsewhere.

On polling day, it is quite possible that on election day, a shared decision will be shared, reflecting the polarization of the country that Democrats win the House and that Republicans retain or even enlarge their majority in the Senate – a more favorable scenario for the GOP that it only seemed possible a month ago.

In his past form, Trump would soon be asking for credit for saving the Senate.