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- Another tropical cyclone or two could form the end of the year.
- Decaying frontal systems and El Niño are factors that can change the next month goes.
- Some big hurricanes can strike in late October and November.
After two recent billion-dollar tropical disasters, Florence hurricanes and Michael, you're probably wondering if hurricane season is over yet.
Hurricane season runs through Nov. 30, but sometimes does not work in the final month or so of hurricane season.
It is not possible to find a tropical cyclone or two before the year ends, but it is not a question of whether or not it is possible to answer the question.
On average, two named storms in the Atlantic basin after Oct. 18, according to the National Hurricane Center. Most of these systems develop in the western or central Caribbean Sea or in the western Atlantic Ocean and then move north or northeast.
Typical tracks and active regions of the Atlantic in the last third of hurricane season.
A few factors will shape the rest of hurricane season develops.
El Niño is slowly developing into the equatorial Pacific with many atmospheric effects already being felt. Typically, the number of tropical storms in the Atlantic is smaller than that of El Niño, due to increased shearing winds that are already developing.
The last weeks of hurricane season follows this idea, too. El Niño is fully developed.
Another factor that can change many tropical cyclones at the end of the season. These cold fronts can eventually spawn tropical or subtropical cyclones in the Gulf of Mexico or the western Atlantic as the steam exchange and convection percolates near an area of low pressure along the old front.
(MORE: Why October Will not Finish like It Started)
Do not sleep on the end of the season as well as activity quiets down some.
There have been some notable hurricanes that have been made in U.S. landfall this late in the season.
Hurricane Sandy in 2012 is the most recent. Sandy made landfall on the East Coast as hell with storm surge in New York and New Jersey.
Before Michael, the hurricane benchmark for many in the Florida panhandle was Kate Hurricane, which made landfall in November 1985.
Kate came ashore with 11 feet of storm surge and wind gusts of more than 100 mph at Cape San Blas. Severe power outages and seafood losses have been experienced across the region.
(MORE: Five Unforgettable November Hurricanes)
Late season tracks for tropical storms and hurricanes from 1977-2017. A few notable hurricanes are highlighted.
Kate was also the latest-in-season hurricane landfall on record in U.S. history, coming ashore at Mexico Beach, Florida, on Nov. 21, at Thanksgiving week-end.
The latest tropical cyclone developed is Dec. 30 when the Tropical Storm Zeta was formed at the end of the hyperactive 2005 hurricane season.
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