For a Change, Democrats Seem Set to Equal or Exceed Republicans in Turnout

A wide range of evidence indicates that the voters are in a position to vote in the midterm election at least a decade.

Democrats have largely erased the turnout that is hobbled them during the Obama presidency, according to the New York Times Upshot / Siena College polls of the most competitive House battleground districts.

Democrats may be more likely to post higher turnout than Republicans, a rarity, in many relatively white suburban districts on Nov. 6.

But it is not clear that this turnout will be much greater, particularly among young and nonwhite voters. Whether Democrats turn out Broadly could make the difference between a House of Commons and the Democratic Republic of Korea Democratic gains of 40 or more seats.

Turnout is always important, but it varies more in lower-turnout elections, like a midterm, meaning that even modest shifts in enthusiasm can transform the electorate. It is a particularly challenging question this year, in part because of the turnout in recent midterm elections has been so low and so Republican.

Across the Times / Siena polls, Republicans have a six-point lead among voters who turned out in 2014. Goal Democrats counter with a 10-point advantage among voters who did not turn out in that election. These voters are more likely to be more than one-third of the electorate, enough to essentially eliminate the Republican turnout of the last decade.

A democratic turnout would be consistent with the long history of midterm elections. When Democrats hold the presidency, Republicans have a big midterm turnout edge, based on voting and surveying data stretching back to the 1970s. And when Republicans hold the presidency, Democrats fight back to parity.

A similar pattern has been played in the general and general elections during the Trump presidency: Democratic turnout has surged over 2014 levels to essentially match that of Republicans.

Over the last two years, 60 percent of Democrats, 58 percent of Republicans in the New Jersey, and Virginia general elections, along with the special congressional elections in Kansas Fourth District, Pennsylvania 18th, Ohio's 12th, Georgia's Sixth and Arizona's Eighth.

In these same jurisdictions in 2014, Republicans had an eight-point edge, with 62 percent voting versus 54 percent of Democrats.

But the historical record offers little precedent for Democratic turnout to beat Republican turnout by Democratic Republic of the Democratic Republic of the Democratic Republic of the Democrats hold the presidency.

One reason is that the demographic composition of the midterm electorate is generally stable, with a turnout among young and nonwhite voters. That tends to cut against Democratic strengths.

The Times / Siena polls show a similar pattern. Over all, voters age 18 to 34 make up 13 percent of the electorate in the polls, compared with 23 percent of all registered voters. And white voters make up 77 percent of the electorate, compared with 72 percent among registered voters.

Across our polls, 58 percent of white registered voters say they are "almost certain" to vote, compared to 50 percent of black registered voters and 43 percent of Hispanic voters. These figures are somewhat less than in other surveys, in part because the Times / Siena surveys make a considerable effort to reach lower-turnout polluters who answer to polls in low numbers.

And just 38 percent of registered voters who are 18 to 34 years old they are almost certain to vote, compared with 62 percent of those over 65.

Most important, 16 percent of registered voters who are 18 to 34 tell us they are not likely to vote. This compares with just 4 percent of those over age 65.

It is entirely possible that these generational and racial turnouts will narrow the election to final motions. There may also be individual races or states, like Georgia, where black voters turn out in large numbers. But there is no historical precedent for those gaps to close the extent they are in a presidential election, at least not nationwide. Similarly, Democrats have not enjoyed a strong turnout among young and nonwhite voters in most of the special and general elections since Donald J. Trump won the presidency.

Yet Democrats have still managed to fare extremely well in Trump-era special and general elections, in no small part because of a surge in well-educated voters. That's what the Times / Siena polling shows as well.

Over all, college-educated Americans make up 47 percent of the voters in the districts we've polled, 38 percent share of registered voters. And white voters with a degree – the president 's base – down to 41 percent of the electorate, down from their 45 percent share of registered voters.

Of this college-educated group, white voters have a particular wide edge in saying they're "almost certain" to vote, relative to their Republican counterparts: 71 percent vs. 64 percent.

Democratic enthusiasm among white college-educated voters has helped the party pull ahead in several predominantly white-well-educated suburban districts where Hillary Clinton won in 2016. Recently completed Times / Siena polls in Virginia's 10th, Kansas' Third and Colorado's Sixth Democrats show by leading at least seven points in Republican-held districts against incumbents who survived vigorous challenges in 2016.

Goal Democrats have not pulled so far ahead in various districts where Mrs. Clinton won. A recent Times / Siena poll shows the Republican Will Hurd cruising in Texas' 23, while Democrats find themselves in a closer-than-expected race in Florida's 27th, where Mrs. Clinton won by 20 points in 2016.

Turnout enthusiasm is not the whole reason Democrats have struggled in polls in the majority-Latino areas this cycle, but it is part of the issue. In Times / Siena polls of districts where at least 25 percent of voters are nonwhite, Democrats lead by three points among registered voters, but they are tied among likely voters. In districts where fewer than 25 percent of voters are nonwhite, there are no gaps between registered voters. And Democrats have a turnout of at least 85 percent of voters are white.

The various districts in Arizona, California, Florida, Texas, North Carolina, New Mexico, and Virginia include more than one-third of the tossup districts. If the Democratic turnout remains somewhat depressed, these districts could help the Republicans fend off a blue wave and at least keep them in their distance from retaining their majority. Democrats, though, can look at the districts offering plenty of opportunities heading into the final stretch. The Democrats are saying that they are less likely to vote and are likely to be undecided, reflecting low political engagement.

If Democrats can lure additional young and nonwhite voters off the sidelines and out of the undecided column, the party could be poised to break through in many of the districts where they've struggled to most point.