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15. Los Angeles Clippers
We’re about to find out what happens when an NBA team collects roughly a dozen playable bodies and no stars. Chances are, the Clips will parlay their depth into a record somewhere around .500 before they sell off assets later in the year.
Danilo Gallinari averaged 17.2 points (in only 21.2 minutes per game) while hitting 42.9 percent of his threes and 51.2 percent of his shots overall in the preseason. If he’s healthy after hand and glute injuries last year, L.A. could flirt with repeating as a top-10 offense. The other end will be problematic, though. A .500 record feels reasonable for the Clippers, who are walking the line between competitiveness and rebuilding.
14. San Antonio Spurs
No team boasts a more anachronistic offensive profile than the Spurs, who’ll devote the lion’s share of field-goal attempts to DeMar DeRozan and LaMarcus Aldridge, two players who ranked in the 99th and 98th percentile, respectively, in percentage of shots attempted from mid-range last season.
Relatedly, the Spurs will have a tough time scoring.
Preseason injuries to Dejounte Murray (torn ACL), Derrick White (heel) and Lonnie Walker IV (torn meniscus) destroyed the guard rotation, and the departures of Parker and Manu Ginobili will now be magnified on the floor as much as in the locker room. This feels like the end of an era in San Antonio, but predicting a lottery trip for these guys (which we are) has never been a comfortable bet.
Wednesday’s season-opening win over the drama-addled Wolves came courtesy of 21 points and 19 boards from Aldridge, and DeRozan closed things with a scoring burst in the fourth. It’s OK to bet that the Spurs will go down, but it won’t happen without a fight.
13. Portland Trail Blazers
Damian Lillard isn’t into being written off, as he told the Los Angeles Times‘ Dan Woike:
“We’ve always been one of those teams that will rise up to it. Now, does that mean we’re guaranteed to make the playoffs? No. But I mean, I think, that it’s been enough years of us showing that we rise to it and make it happen where I don’t see why people would look at it and say, ‘The Trail Blazers are going to be the team that gets replaced.'”
Counterpoints: The West is better than it was a year ago, Maurice Harkless’ left knee remains a concern, and Portland made no meaningful additions to last year’s roster.
This is a middle-of-the-pack bunch until it proves otherwise. On the bright side, as Lillard said, the Blazers have made a habit of doing that.
12. Oklahoma City Thunder
Sometimes, these things aren’t complicated.
Over the last two seasons, the Thunder haven’t been good without Russell Westbrook. Last year, they were 11.4 points per 100 possessions worse when he sat. When Russ won MVP in 2016-17, the difference in net rating was 11.8 points per 100 possessions.
No surprise, then, that OKC struggled against Golden State on Tuesday.
Westbrook is already practicing as he works back from his fourth right knee surgery since 2013, but it might be a mistake to assume the Thunder will snap into shape when he returns. Guards who depend so heavily on athleticism don’t tend to age well as they hit their 30s; Westbrook crosses that divide November 12.
11. Indiana Pacers
So close!
Indy just missed the top 10, despite adding Tyreke Evans, Doug McDermott and Kyle O’Quinn to a 48-game winner. Frame it right, though, and this feels like a huge win. Last year, at the outset of that 48-victory campaign, we kicked off the power rankings by slotting Indiana at No. 28.
Oops.
The Pacers broke the Grizzlies by halftime in Wednesday’s 111-83 win, and the margin prevented any Indy player from logging more than 28 minutes. Good start.
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