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The headline of last year: the Dodgers are beautifully installed for the NLCS.
The subdirectory: "The Dodgers did not need surprises or fancy tricks to get through the Diamondbacks, and that will help a lot."
The point: the Dodgers went through the NLDS 2017 with all three lives and one left continues. It was going to help them.
And it did it. This helped them until the World Series. Entering the NLCS 2017, they had a rested Clayton Kershaw and a Rich Hill rested behind him. Alex Wood did not even need to throw. Kenley Jansen has started three and a half innings, two less than in the 2016 NHL against the Nationals. They were piled up and rested, stacked and rested.
This is in our interest because the Brewers are well organized for the seventh game of the NLCS 2018. It's so obvious, so relevant to everything that's going to happen. The Brewers are trying to make their way to the World Series with a pen and a dream. The brass is getting closer and you have to give them a chance. It could be crazy enough to work. And it looks good. The Brewers pen can enter the fourth inning of a seventh match, if necessary. Maybe even the third round.
Corbin Burnes is assured of this. He pitched two great runs, and according to FanGraphs, it was good for a .137 victory probability added. Even if you do not know the ins and outs of WPA, just know it was the best choice for a pitcher to play. No thrower added more to his team's chances of winning than Burnes. Good for him.
But it's under-sold.
It was under-sold because Josh Hader was heating up, and Craig Counsell was waiting, waiting, waiting to pull the trigger. He will never admit the breaking point. Was it a baserunner? Was it two? Hader was ready, after all, and the manager had to determine if it was worth playing that card at that time. The Brewers were raised by four, but another single and maybe another, and then the tied race would be on deck, which, technically, is a backup situation, so, oh, no, no, GET ME HADER.
It would have been so easy to pull on this lever. If Burnes gave up a line in the eighth, Counsell might have brought in Hader, thus spending the balls he might need for the seventh game.
So give Corbin Burnes a leg up on .100 on his WPA from Game 7, then. He deserved it. Because it's not become strange, it means that the super megatonal reliever Josh Hader is fully rested from the seventh game. We knew the Brewers would have to handle all of this with skill. They are now here with a line pennant, perfectly set up. Pass the entire pen.
For how many rounds is Corey Knebel good (25 throws in the sixth match) in Game 7?
Probably one.
For how many rounds is Jeremy Jeffress good (13 shots)?
At least two.
For how many rounds is Joakim Soria good (coach's decision (DNP))?
Probably two. I mean, it will probably be one, but if you need to stretch it, it's there.
What about additional sleeves, if necessary?
Gio Gonzalez made 58 shots this series. It's good for … five innings if we get there?
Zach Davies made 18 shots this series. It's good for seven rounds, pretty much.
Brandon Woodruff has 97 goals, so he's probably out of reach after a hitter or three! But Corbin Burnes, so dominant in the sixth game, made only 24 shots. It's probably good for a round, at least.
We did not even meet Xavier Cedeño or Freddy Peralta, who both have arms of doom. Unpolished makeshift arms, but still. Neither of them gives you the meat sweats when they enter a game. These are legitimate weapons of the major league.
And that's all the details of the Brewers table. Knebel can probably start a run, and Jeffress can probably go two. Soria is completely rested, so he can stay as long as possible and if Joakim Soria had problems early, the Brewers knew they could count on Gonzalez or Davies to spend as many innings as necessary. This is before arriving at Burns, Cedeño and Peralta.
For a team with a strategy of "Bullpen more, silly", it's almost the best of scenarios.
I can not help but think that I miss something.
Knebel, Jeffress, Soria, yes, all the farmers at one point. Gonzalez, Davis and Woodruff, all entries, at one point. A couple of live arms behind all those throwers, too. Looks great.
But something is missing and I can not point the finger. OH, RIGHT, IT'S JOSH HADER, THE ULTIMATE WEAPON. Is Hader good for two rounds tomorrow? Three rounds? Have him come in at the first sign of trouble, or put it on when the game is unquestionably at stake? Maybe the match starts with three scoreless shots. This is not serious. Regardless of the result, there are two days off, so throw it out and do it hard.
The Brewers team may be able to win 20 heats Saturday and be able to play a seventh match with quality weapons to the end. They also to have the ultimate post-season weapon, which they will deploy with the minimum of provocation. The Brewers can put more or less Andrew Miller 2018 in the game and suck up two innings of the other team. They can time for maximum benefit.
Everything is going to collapse with only one brick, of course. If Jeffress does not look good, well, it stinks, and everyone goes up a notch. And if Knebel is tired or if Burnes can not come back so quickly, or if Hader does not want to get into the third round and mess around because he's not ready or … it's almost like you should not trust the raisers.
But that's how the Brewers developed it. They used a very fine pencil and the best inks to prepare it, you know. They are proud to show the plans if you ask them. This series is not over, or even close, so do not take this as a prediction that awaits the Dodgers, but the Brewers' barrel is restful and efficient.
Within reasonable limits, this scenario was about as good as the Brewers could have hoped. They knew they did not have a trio of beginners. They knew that they would need a village to qualify for the World Series and they were ready to crumble this village. They do not have to do it. They can approach the seventh game as if it were a seventh match – hands on the deck – but they do not have to ask all their throwers to breathe deeply and dig deeper. They can simply ask their pitchers to play normally.
These games are what brought the Brewers where they are. That's why they are beautifully prepared for the seventh game, with a chance to go into the World Series. It might not work. But if this is not the case, it is not because the master plan was lacking.
The brewers are exactly where they want to be.
They just need to, you know, win.
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