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Dan Balz
Senior Correspondent for National Policy, the Presidency and the Congress
If you have not looked up recently, President Trump is everywhere. He's campaigning across the country at a fast pace. His White House cracked down on the press briefings, but he gives interviews to the bushel. He apparently keeps gabbing with the journalists. He does not stop talking.
These days began to resemble those of the last weeks of the 2016 presidential campaign, when Trump deployed more energy and resistance than rival Hillary Clinton, showing that he was willing to take risks with his schedule and even to launch a false head simulator. . He knew the electorate and the states he needed to win and pursued them relentlessly. He is doing the same thing today.
Nowadays, no president has done what Trump does. Despite an underwater popularity rating since the beginning of his presidency, he has chosen to make it the next mid-term election. Even if they were not already, few presidents have also willingly personalized an intermediate mandate like this one. This is another example of Trump as a rule breaker.
[Trump: ‘I am on the ticket . . . this is also a referendum about me’]
He also went back to basics with his message, designed to both ignite and energize. He pressed all the cultural buttons that left the country even more divided than it was before his election. He talks about crime and law enforcement, immigration caravans that threaten borders, judicial functions and, of course, the economy. He disparages the Democrats at every turn by talking about crowds and violent demonstrations.
He ventures into dangerous territory without regret or excuse. Thursday night, in Montana, he resumed the performance of some of his rallies in 2016, encouraging his supporters to be physically with the protesters in the audience. This time, he congratulated the representative Greg Gianforte (R-Mont.), Who was convicted of assaulting journalist Guardian Ben Jacobs on the eve of a special election in 2017. "Anyone who knows how to smack their body, that's my kind of … "Trump said, interrupting his sentence as the audience cheered with approval.
President Trump speaks at a campaign rally on Thursday in Missoula, Mt. (Lido Vizzutti / AP)
At the time of his conviction (which included a deferred prison sentence), Gianforte stated that he was not proud of what he had done but that he was "ready to move on." to something else". Trump is apparently not ready. "It's my guy," Trump exclaimed Thursday night, and completed it all by imitating someone who was slamming the body to the floor.
Trump's praise for someone who attacked a journalist came at a time of international indignation following the assassination of a Washington Post reporter and columnist. Jamal Khashoggi inside the Saudi Consulate in Istanbul. After Khashoggi's disappearance, Trump even hesitated to criticize the Saudis, while Turkish officials claimed to have evidence of a horrible death at the hands of a Saudi strike team.
Since then, he has been warned of serious consequences for the Saudis. This warning remains to be executed. Meanwhile, Trump's accolades on Gianforte further illustrate his contempt for the media, and that in a campaign he is ready to say whatever he thinks he should do to win, which in this case means sending back the Republicans to make sure that as much as possible turn out to vote.
When White House officials said late in the summer that Trump wanted to leave Washington to campaign almost constantly in the fall, skepticism prevailed. After all, he has a country to manage. But the call of the center of the stage is intoxicating, and no president has been so eager to become the center of attention. Trump also knows instinctively that in a polarized country he can do more than anyone else in his party to oppose an energetic Democratic party.
[Voters say they are more likely to cast ballots in this year’s midterm elections]
All mid-term elections, especially those of the first term of office of a new president, concern the oval office occupant. But this one was destined to be so much more than others because of Trump. Gary Jacobson, eminent professor emeritus of political science at the University of California at San Diego, said it would act "the most radical and discordant national referendum on any administration, at least since the Great Depression.
In a paper prepared for the annual meeting of the American Political Science Association on Labor Day weekend, Mr. Jacobson explained how the evolution of loyalty to a party and the relationship between presidential approval and the electoral behavior adds it. In his analysis of the polls until the end of the summer, he noted that Democrats displayed levels of loyalty consistent with democratic elections, "but Republicans are almost as loyal in generic polls as in general elections. [they] been in 2010 and 2014, much more than in the years of previous democratic "wave". "
Jacobson also noted that presidential approval had long had a major influence on the way people vote in mid-term elections, adding that Trump's ratings "have up to now a stronger influence than those of any predecessor ". Republicans not only agree with the president on most issues, he wrote: "They also take sides on virtually every important issue regarding his performance and character, even accepting the most dubious proposals" .
Some signs indicate that the environment has improved for Republicans over the past month. Democrats remain the favorites to take control of the House, but some strategists say that the margins of voting in the various constituencies have tightened compared to a month ago, leaving many tight races ahead of time. elections. Meanwhile, the democratic hopes of taking control of the Senate have diminished; Republicans are now talking about winning a seat or even a little more there.
The ultimate problem for Republicans in the battle for the House is that they play defense in so many places, with nine or ten times the number of seats held by GOP at risk compared to the seats held by them. Democrats. Beyond that, Democratic candidates turn out to be good candidates. And they are extremely well funded. This puts the Democrats in a position to win the majority in the House, although we do not know how much more we need than the 23 they need. Among the Democratic strategists, there is no irrational exuberance today.
A combination of factors seems to have changed the climate. One is the consolidation of the Republican vote, which was predictable based on Jacobson's analysis and the characteristics of the previous elections. Another consequence is the continuation of the battle for the confirmation of Supreme Court Justice Brett M. Kavanaugh, who provided an energetic shock to the Republican base and who may have had a special effect in energizing white men without a university degree , who remain the hard core of Trump. based.
Another factor, however, could be the president himself, his ability to shape both the conversation and the electorate. What worries some Democrats is that during the regular elections, enthusiasm rises from one side to the other. This year, Democrats sparked enthusiasm and some groups made progress. But the corresponding enthusiasm among the Republicans does not take place. If the GOP voters are not as focused as the Democrats, they are not as disappointed as some Democrats have hoped.
The chair is continually saying that he is on the ballot this year, which is correct from a figurative point of view. He also says he will not accept any responsibility if the Republicans lose the House. Apparently, despite everything he has done to carry the burden in the run-up to the election, if there is bad news on polling day, the responsibility will remain the same.
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