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LAS VEGAS – It seemed like everything seemed to indicate that Dean Heller had had a toast this year. He is the only GOP senator to be re-elected in a state won by Democrat Hillary Clinton in 2016. He aligns himself with Donald Trump, a personality revolted by many communities here, after stating that he was "against vehemently "to his position. He voted in favor of the repeal of Obamacare, a risky move that opened him to vicious attacks on health care.
Still, polls show that Heller is in heat with his opponent, Rep. Jacky Rosen (D-Nev.), Just weeks before the mid-term elections. Democrats are optimistic that a blue wave will help them overthrow Heller, a victory they need to take over the Senate. But worrying signs of delay in Latino engagement across the country and Trump's growing popularity in Nevada could cause them an unexpected setback in November.
"There is a fundamental reality: Republicans tend to do better mid-term," said Doug Heye, former communications director of the Republican National Committee. "[Heller] did everything as he could in a difficult environment. … This race will not be decided by thousands and thousands of voices, but by hundreds of voices. "
Heller could qualify for his second term if the turnout reflects the low levels seen in the last mid-term elections. Nevada Latin Castors only 10 percent votes in 2014 – a number of Democrats must beat if they want to send Rosen to Washington. And while Republicans have not done the same in Nevada recently, it's still a purple state. Clinton won with just 27,000 votes in the 2016 election, a margin well below that of previous presidential elections.
To be re-elected, Heller must outperform white voters in rural areas of the state. That's why the White House on Saturday sent Trump to a rally with the senator in the remote town of Elko in the north of the country. Increasing the share of rural vote in this country would help offset more urban areas of the state.
"I think the blue wave is breaking fast," Trump said at the event. "You know, all the Democrats want is power, and they signed that deal, not to look like a blue wave."
At the same time, hundreds of miles south, the Democrats reacted by bringing in their own batters – former Vice President Joe Biden showed up on Saturday and former President Barack Obama is due to appear Monday – to help to galvanize their base while early voting took place started in the state. Both men are considered a handicap in the pure red states where Trump is extremely popular, but they could help Democrats narrow the gap between young Latino voters and voters in a purple state like Nevada.
"People, it's time to get up! Let's raise our heads! Biden launched at a union event in downtown Las Vegas on Saturday, calling people to vote for Rosen. "Remember who we are. Take back the Senate and change the world as we know it. "
It is a merciless fight to get the vote to a few days of November 6 – an event that will have enormous consequences for this year and beyond.
Will Latinos be present?
The Democrats may be facing a big problem with Latin American voters, who do not seem to be as enthusiastic to vote as when the then-candidate Trump had led the minorities. at the polls in 2016 with his anti-immigrant rhetoric.
For example, in several of the country's Latino-dominated districts, Democrats underperformed Clinton's numbers compared to two years ago. If these voters do not show up on election day, it could seriously jeopardize the chances of the Democratic Party to regain control of the Congress.
"Latinos have been invited to play defense again and again, again and again. Vote against that, vote against it. We have to vote for what we have not had in a very long time, "said David Garcia, Democratic candidate for governorship in Arizona. a recent interview with MSNBC.
A similar trend could also occur in Nevada, a state with a population of about 28% of people of Latin nationality and increasing.
Heller has shown surprising strength to Latino voters. A recent NBC / Wall Street Journal poll shows that it enjoys the support of 38% of Nevada's Latino voters – a considerable amount for a Republican. His campaign has led advocacy groups to involve Nevada's Latin American and African-American voters, especially those working in the business world, in hopes of siphoning Democrats' votes.
"We are firmly committed to winning every vote, including Hispanics and all other Nevada groups," said Heller campaign spokesman Keith Shipper.
In another sign concerning the Democrats, the Cook political report Recently, in the Las Vegas area, the seat of "Likely Democratic" to "Democratic Lean" was rejected at 54%.
This is a stark contrast to the 2016 elections, where Latino voters across the country and in Nevada queued for hours to vote against Trump. the increase in Latin participation in that election, he helped Clinton bring the state and paved the way for Democrat Catherine Cortez Masto to become the first Latina senator in US history.
Rosen is not a member of the Latin American community and does not speak Spanish. But it has played a huge role for minority communities, including Latinos.
It has flooded the state with Spanish-language TV commercials focused on key issues such as health care, education and immigration. She is also in favor of adopting a clean Dream Act to protect young immigrants brought to the United States as children.
"Everyone is excited, they know what's at stake. I feel really good about it," Rosen told HuffPost after greeting his supporters at an early launch party in Las Vegas. on Saturday, which featured a mariachi band and tacos stalls.
This race will not be decided by thousands and thousands of voices, but by hundreds of voices.
Doug Heye, Former Director of Communications at the Republican National Committee
Yet the first congressman who has worked as a programmer before is not as famous as the other Democrats who have managed to win all the states here.
Cortez Masto, for example, had a history on his side, and former Senator Harry Reid (D-Nev.) Played the role of kingmaker with a prominent position in the Senate. The Republican super PACs have meanwhile passed millions of dollars in TV commercials in his efforts to define Rosen as a liberal extremist who supports sanctuary cities and has not done enough to end illegal immigration or gangs like MS-13. Trump even gave him a derisory nickname: "Wacky Jacky."
Nevertheless, there is evidence of a keen interest in Rosen's candidacy in the Senate. Her campaign announced this week that she had surpassed Heller with a 3-to-1 margin, raising $ 7.1 million in contributions since August. And in even more striking news, she collected an additional $ 5 million between October 1st and 17th, her campaign announced on Friday.
"There is good energy. The fundraising went very well for her, if it's an indicator of intensity, "said Teresa Benitez-Thompson, Democrat and Leader of the Assembly of the State of Nevada .
The "Reid machine" starts up
In addition to bringing big names such as Obama and Biden, the Democrats rely on the legendary "Reid Machine", named in honor of the former Senate Majority Leader, for help reverse the trend of Nevada. This is an institutional advantage that Republicans lack, and last weekend, thousands of Democratic Party officials and Democratic Party volunteers began making appeals, knocking on doors and registering new voters.
One of the organizations that plays a key role in this effort is the potent culinary workers union, which represents 57,000 workers in the majority of casinos and hotels in the Las Vegas Strip. Its seat in the state is a major stop for Democratic candidates. Biden appeared Saturday with Rosen and other Democrat candidates at a rally where he urged people to vote.
"I'm calling Joe Biden. I work for Harry Reid! "He shouted, giving the kickoff to a rally of about 500 supporters and union members by invoking the name of the de facto president of the Nevada Democratic Party.
But the Reid machine misses its name this year. The 78-year-old retired senator was operated on for pancreatic cancer in May, and he remained largely away from the radar while recovering. The November elections will verify whether the vaunted operation is still effective for Democrats.
The advance vote in person in Nevada will continue until November 2, but we will probably have a good idea of the position of the electorate by the time votes begin on Monday. A significant number of Nevadians voted before polling day thanks to state laws that lowered the barriers to voting, especially compared to those of other states.
"People can vote that day anywhere, not just in their riding," said Benitez-Thompson. "It will be easier to vote than ever before in the state of Nevada."
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