Interest for mid-term overvoltages, boosting the asset approval rate

Nearly two-thirds of registered voters showed a keen interest in this election – the highest record since a mid-term election since the publication of the Journal / NBC poll in 2006.

"It's a success," said Bill McInturff, a GOP investigator who led the Democrat Fred Yang survey, about rising voter interest. "There is a change that has been reversed … they are participating in the campaign and the process."

In the aftermath of the fierce fight against Supreme Court Justice Brett Kavanaugh, Republicans filled the long-standing gap between the interests of their constituents and the Democrats. Now 68% of Republican voters and 72% of Democrats say they are very interested in elections – the highest recorded by the survey in the midterm elections.

President Trump's job approval rating of 47 percent, his highest mark in his tenure, also helped Republicans, with 49 percent disapproving of his performance. This is an improvement over last month, when 44% of respondents approved and 52% disapproved of its performance.

Democrats remain ahead of the question as to which party should control Congress. Of the poll respondents identified as likely voters, 50% prefer Democrats, while 41% prefer Republican control, much the same as in last month's survey. Among all registered voters, a larger group of respondents, the Democrats' advantage over the GOP is narrower – from 48% to 41%.

Yang said the survey results included signs that the widely-predicted "blue wave" of Democratic gains in the House in 2018 is now facing a "spiral of uncertainty." [that] was created with a Republican boost of intensity ".

Although Democrats are generally preferred in the national poll, their advantage has disappeared in the districts of the House that matter most. In the districts considered most competitive by Cook's non-partisan political report, parties are dead, even on the question of who should control Congress. In the poll last month, the Democrats were in the lead with 13 percentage points among registered voters and 6 points among likely voters.

Interest in the elections has surged among many groups that tend to favor the Democrats – the Latino, African-American and the young. More than two-thirds of black voters showed a strong interest in the election, compared to 57 percent more than the average polls from January to September.

The share of highly interested Latin American people climbed to 71%, compared to an average of 47% in polls from this year to September. About half of those aged 18 to 34 years showed a strong interest in the elections, compared to 35% on average earlier this year.

Independent voters, who play a crucial role in the culmination of highly divided races, prefer congressional Democratic control over Republican leaders from 41% to 27%. But a third are undecided and independents less committed than supporters: just 46% of independents express a keen interest in elections.

The poll again revealed that the Democrats had an unbalanced advantage among the voters. For the second month in a row, women surveyed said they preferred a Democrat-controlled Congress by 25 percentage points, with 57 percent preferring Democrats and 32 percent Republicans. Voters want Republicans to lead Congress with a margin of 14 points, with 52 percent supporters and 38 percent Democrats.

The survey clearly shows why the competitive electoral districts that will determine control of the House are mainly in the suburbs. The poll found that urban voters prefer a Democratic-controlled Congress with a margin of 36 percentage points; Rural voters favor the GOP by 31 points. Of the suburban residents, the parties are equal: 44% favor GOP control and 45% support a Democratic Congress.

When asked which party was best equipped to handle key issues, voters continue to say that they trust Democrats more to manage health care, while Republicans still have an advantage economic.

On trade issues, Republicans have the preference over Democrats by a margin of 17 percentage points, up from 8 points ahead in a survey conducted in August. The question was in the spotlight because in early October, Trump signed a new trade deal with Canada and Mexico. Of the independents, 38% supported the GOP to manage trade, while 16% favored Democrats.

The survey revealed a broad national consensus: 80% said the United States was now a divided country and 90% said political divisions between Republicans and Democrats were a problem.

The survey of 900 registered voters, including 645 likely voters, was held from October 14 to 17. The margin of error for registered voters is plus or minus 3.27 percentage points; for likely voters, plus or minus 3.86 percentage points.

Write to Janet Hook at [email protected]