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The assassination of Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi at the Kingdom's consulate in Istanbul is unlikely to halt Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman's accession to power, but could cause irreparable damage to relations with Western governments and corporations, potentially jeopardize its ambitious reform plans.
The international outrage provoked by the Khashoggi assassination on 2 October at the hands of Saudi officials, in still-controversial circumstances, was marked by the greatest crisis of the rapid rise of the young man of old. 33, already tarnished by a catastrophic war in Yemen and a general roundup of businessmen and activists.
The prince hoped to mobilize support worldwide for his efforts to reorganize the economy of the oil-dependent country, but the monarchy is now punishable by the assassination. Saudi Arabia has threatened retaliation against punitive action, but analysts say using its main weapon, oil production, could backfire, making the prince's economic goals even more inaccessible.
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"The question now is how western governments are coordinating their response and how they want to intensify this action in a coordinated way," said Michael Stephens, senior researcher who focuses on the Mideast at the Institute for Research and Development. defense and security studies Royal United Services in London. .
"Would financial sanctions be considered sufficient for sending a message to Saudi Arabia that this will not happen again?" Added Stephens. "Some may think that is not enough, while others, like Americans, may think that it goes too far."
Watch: Saudi Foreign Minister says Khashoggi's murder was a "serious and serious mistake" in Fox News interview
Colleagues close to the prince were dismissed following the murder of Khashoggi and 18 suspects were arrested. But the prince himself, protected by his father, the 82-year-old King Salman, was put to use to lead a task force to reform the kingdom's intelligence services, a sign that he will remain in power. next on the throne.
The king has the power to change the line of succession – as he had done when he had appointed his son Crown Prince in the first place, thus nullifying the previous royal consensus.
READ MORE: At a time when the "revolutionary" personality of the Saudi prince is unveiling, King Salman controls the damage
But any direct contestation of Prince Mohammed's succession "could destabilize the kingdom as a whole," said Cinzia Bianco, an analyst at Gulf State Analytics. "Being young and so close to his father, it is possible that his behavior may be limited by the influence of his father and other actors around the world," said Bianco.
This is only valid as long as King Salman remains in power. If Prince Mohammed acceded to the throne, he could remain in power for decades, longer than any other king since the country's founding in 1932, including his first monarch, King Abdul Aziz Al Saud.
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The dismissals and arrests announced by the kingdom seem at least to be an acknowledgment by the royal family of the gravity of the crisis.
"While it may be too early to assess the response of the international community, these measures could be interpreted as a serious initial sign that the Saudi leadership is correcting its trajectory," wrote Ayham Kamel, head of state. from research on the Middle East and North Africa to Eurasia. Group.
"Despite speculation that the crisis will sound the death knell of Mohammad bin Salman, recent announcements prove that the king still believes that the current line of succession is appropriate."
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The main concern of the Saudis concerns the United States, a crucial military ally against Iran, its rival, and an essential source of the type of foreign investment they will need to reform the economy. A strong American reaction could encourage other Western countries to do the same, further amplifying the crisis.
President Donald Trump has so far sent mixed signals, promising a "severe penalty" for the death of the Washington Post columnist, while asserting that he did not want to jeopardize the sales of the Washington Post. American weapons to the kingdom.
Trump chose Saudi Arabia as his first trip abroad as president, and his son-in-law and advisor, Jared Kushner, forged close ties with Prince Mohammed, seeing him apparently as an ally for to advance its peace plan Israel and the Palestinians.
WATCH: "We want justice for Jamal," said Turkish media spokesman and friend of Khashoggi
But even if the Saudis guard Trump on their side, they could face a US Congressional ruling, where Republicans and Democrats have expressed outrage at the murder. Some have suggested using the 2016 Magnitsky Global Law, which allows for the imposition of entry bans and targeted sanctions on people who commit human rights violations or violations of human rights. significant corruption.
Saudi Arabia threatened last week to "take more action" in the face of sanctions. Although no official has explained what this would imply, the general manager of a satellite television channel owned by Saudi Arabia suggested to include the manufacture of 39 weapons in the oil production of the kingdom.
READ MORE: The Washington Post publishes Jamal Khashoggi's latest column on freedom of expression in the Arab world
Forty-five years ago, Saudi Arabia joined the other OPEC countries in an oil embargo on the 1973 war in the Middle East, in retaliation for US military support provided to Israel. Gas prices have skyrocketed, weighing on the US economy.
But we do not know if it would go in the current economy. Saudi Arabia is trying to regain market share in the global market, especially as Iran faces new US oil sanctions starting in November. Reducing oil exports would drain the revenue needed for Prince Mohammed's plans to diversify the economy, while soaring oil prices could revive the shale industry in the United States and lead other countries to increase production.
WATCH: No weapons for Saudi Arabia while questions about Khashoggi remain: German Angela Merkel
"The Saudis have been of great help in speeding up oil production, especially with the rise of sanctions against Iran," said Kristin Diwan, senior researcher at the Arab Institute. Gulf states in Washington. "It would be very foolish for Saudi Arabia to lose the confidence of the oil market won over the decades by integrating politics into its oil policy."
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