These 8 Attorney General's Races Could Make All the Difference for Trump's Diary

Ohio. Wisconsin. Florida. You may be looking at these states in motion to see how congressional or governor events will take place, but they also organize competitions between prosecutors. These races do not usually attract much attention at the national level, but this year Democrats hope to win attorney general seats, which they used to defend themselves against the political agenda. from President Trump.

Over the last 18 months, Democratic Attorneys General have sued Trump and his administration against various decisions of his administration, including immigration, the environment and birth control. Now, Democratic candidates are telling voters that their secret ballot campaigns could be the key to Trump's accountability. "The sad reality is that we have a federal government that is acting illegally," said Phil Weiser, a Democrat who is running for Colorado's attorney general. "I believe that the state attorney general is particularly well placed to intervene and protect the rights of individuals."

Although Republicans currently control two-thirds of the governors' mansions in the country, their dominance over Attorney General's offices is less complete. Republicans currently control 27 Attorney General's offices, while Democrats control 22 Attorney General's offices. But this balance of power could change if the Democrats even won a handful of races. This means that a "blue wave" of Democratic attorneys general is possible – and that this could be one of the most important results of the election.

State attorneys general have been increasingly willing to show willingness, including by joining forces to bring several lawsuits, which have seen a surge in recent years, according to research by political scientist Paul Nolette, a professor at Marquette University. These efforts have also become increasingly partisan, according to Nolette. "This is a high-profile way to hinder the implementation of federal policy, and it has been very effective," said Nolette.

For example, throughout the Obama administration, Republican attorneys general have violently attacked his policy and have won victories over issues such as immigration and climate change. And over the last 18 months, blue state prosecutors have filed numerous lawsuits against the Trump administration and, during this process, they have won victories over environmental protection and environmental protection. Student debt relief. But Republican attorneys general have not gone under the shadow now that the GOP controls the White House; In February, Republicans from 20 states filed lawsuits against the Affordable Care Act, saying the law, including key provisions such as the protection of people with pre-existing conditions, was unconstitutional, reinforcing efforts to the Trump administration to dismantle it. (A coalition of 17 Democratic Attorneys General has mobilized to defend the law, the case was brought before a judge in September, but no decision has yet been rendered.)

This year, some candidates for the Republican Attorney General said they wanted to stall polarization. "We should not quarrel and take a partisan stance on all issues," said Republican George Brauchler, who runs against Weiser in the race to the Colorado Attorney General. But even if some Republicans really regret the aggressive tactics of their colleagues (Weiser, for his part, says that Brauchler is not as moderate as it seems), it can be difficult to put the genie back into the bottle.

State attorneys general have become more important at the national level during this period of political blockage, said James Tierney, former Attorney General of Maine and lecturer at Harvard Law School. In addition to being able to sue the federal government directly, GAs have other ways of influencing policies – that they believe the problem is over-reach or under-reach by the federal government. They may, for example, limit the number of local and regional law enforcement officers cooperating with federal immigration agencies or prosecute companies when they feel that the federal government is not responsible for prosecuting them. in fact not enough to protect the citizens.

Although Republicans seem to have long understood the legal importance of the presidency of the Attorney General, it is perhaps only now that Democrats are trying to catch up. Lizzie Ulmer, director of communications at the Democratic Attorneys General Association, told FiveThirtyEight that the organization had moved from a part-time consultant working in a Denver office building in 2016 to a party committee with full staff – a situation similar to that of the Democratic Congress of Congo Campaign. The committee is for home shopping, for example. Up to now this election cycle, the association has collected $ 14 million according to the Internal Revenue Service disclosure forms. That's more than the $ 8 million it raised in the 2014 round, but it's still far behind the $ 31 million that its Republican counterpart, the Republican Attorney's Association, has mobilized so far. during this cycle.

Some political sources told reporters that as much as $ 100 million could be spent on prosecutors this year (which would be a significant increase over previous years). This money is spent on the 30 positions of Attorney General waiting for elections this year – 18 occupied by Republicans and 12 by Democrats. To find out who were the most vulnerable, we looked at the race surveys, the number of fundraisers and the lists of states targeted by the two partisan associations AG.

Here are the seven states where we believe Democrats could make real gains:

• Polling in Arizona Republican Mark Brnovich walked away from Democrat January Contreras, but the race was launched when progressive billionaire Tom Steyer recently paid more than $ 3 million in attacks on Brnovich.
• For the seat open at ColoradoThe Democrat Phil Weiser (former dean of the University of Colorado Law School) surpassed Republican District Attorney George Brauchler by nearly $ 2 million (who sued the Aurora Theater shooter). However, Republican AG has boosted Brauchler's external spending by about $ 3 million, one of his largest investments in a state.
• In FloridaDemocratic State Representative Sean Shaw has pledged to use the Attorney General's office to handle the Trump administration, while former GOP Judge Ashley Moody is running a campaign of the law backed by at least 57 of Florida's 66 sheriffs. The polls are tight, so like the Senate and Governor races in Florida, we do not know how that will happen.
• With his relationship as president of the State House, Tom Leonard is probably Michigan The strongest Republican candidate in the state. But this may not be their year: polls give Democrat Dana Nessel, an LGBT rights advocate, whose campaign video went viral as the # MeToo movement picked up speed, slightly ahead.
• Nevada Attorney General Adam Laxalt is a candidate for governorship and has appointed his Republican MP, Wes Duncan, to succeed him. As the Senate majority leader, Democratic candidate Aaron Ford is Nevada's highest Democratic party, but his campaign was penalized by revelations that he was arrested four times in the 1990s. Polls show many undecided voters, so this is another race that could follow the top of the ticket.
• Ohio Democrats have Steve Dettelbach, a former US attorney on the prosecutor's record, while Republicans have Dave Yost, who has already won two statewide auditor elections. Both candidates tout their anti-corruption record, but Dettelbach may have more credibility on the issue, given how the Ohio GOP faced two local scandals. foreground. With nearly $ 5 million in the bank at the end of September, he also has a financial advantage over Yost, but polls indicate it's still a race against the competition.
• Wisconsin may be the best chance for Democrats to oust an incumbent Attorney General. Republican Brad Schimel has angered some Democrats over questionable public spending choices and a backlog of untested rape kits. The Democratic AG Association planned to spend $ 2 million on the race, while the Republican group allocated $ 2.5 million. Democrat candidate Josh Kaul, a former federal prosecutor and son of the last Wisconsin Democratic Attorney General, edged Schimel by just four points in Marquette University's latest poll.

But it's not just the Democrats who could make gains. Republicans also have a great opportunity: the seat open to Minnesota. US Republican Keith Ellison started the race as a favorite. However, in August, Ellison's former romantic partner accused him of physically and emotionally abusing her. The race is now neck and neck. Republican Doug Wardlow has picked up speed by promising not to mix politics with his work as an AG, but the long-time Conservative activist has already questioned this statement.

Reversing any of these offices could result in even more litigation against the Trump administration. New attorneys general may face more prosecution than filing new prosecutions, although Democrats have already been so aggressive. But this year's elections will undoubtedly serve to test whether the Democrats' strategy of attacking Trump in court can also help them win elections.