[ad_1]
Simulation of the European model of the storm on the East Coast Thursday evening to Sunday evening. (PivotalWeather.com)
A major downpour can form along the east coast at the end of the week, while a cold front is added to the remains of Hurricane Willa Category 5 is expected to hit the west coast of Mexico on Tuesday. The storm can generate heavy rains, snow in the mountains and, on the coast, high winds and high seas.
The greatest risk of weather disruption will be in the mid-Atlantic and Northeast shores over the weekend. It is too early to predict exactly how this storm will unfold and where it will hit hardest. It is also possible that it is more directed towards the sea, thus minimizing the effects.
The storm threat is still in five or six days, but computer models have shown a favorable trend for East Coast storms in late October more than a week.
As with all east coast storms, the exact path will determine where precipitation is greatest and which areas, if any, may receive snow. There is also uncertainty about the strength of the storm, which will greatly affect the amount and type of precipitation, as well as whether the high winds and floods pose a threat along the coast. .
But the models suggest that this storm has the potential to be fearsome. It will develop as the remains of Willa, currently located in the eastern tropical tropical Pacific Ocean near the west coast of Mexico, are drawn into northeastern Mexico and settle in the Gulf of Mexico. midweek. A new storm system will form along an old front stalled and will follow Thursday and Friday from the northeastern Gulf Coast to the southeast.
The remains of Willa – as they enter the Gulf of Mexico – will bear no resemblance to the monster storm in its current state and will be much weaker. In the Gulf of Mexico, it is not excluded that the remaining traffic is trying to regenerate to become a tropical entity, but models do not currently predict it.
Simulated traces of European modeling systems (in red) and American (in blue) for Hurricane Willa and its remnants. (StormVistaWxModels.com)
The remnants of Willa are expected to initially produce significant rainfall over central Texas, which recently suffered severe flooding on Wednesday. The rain is expected to spread on Thursday and Friday in some of the areas hit by Hurricane Michael, including the Florida Panhandle and Georgia.
As the storm system develops and follows along the northern Gulf Coast, to the central Atlantic and the northeast, the models predict total precipitation of about one to four inches. This may be enough to cause pockets of flooding, especially in areas where rains have been abundant in recent weeks, but widespread problems are less likely. The storm system will move fast enough to prevent a more serious threat of flooding.
The National Weather Service's seven-day precipitation forecasts indicate a one to four inch rainfall potential in central Texas, along the northern Gulf Coast, and then in the center of the Atlantic coastline.
The storm system should not take significant force until it reaches the East Coast on Friday or Friday night, when it begins to interact with a cold front.
The timing and location of this merger will have a significant impact on the trajectory of the storm and the magnitude of the transaction on this coast along the east coast. If the melting occurs earlier and closer to the coast, it is more likely that the storm will occur on the coast with significant precipitation of rain, snow and wind. But if it happens later and further offshore, it could mean a blow.
Of the 51 simulations performed by the European modeling system (see below), about half maintain the storm near the Mid-Atlantic and North-East coast, and the other half prevail further offshore.
Simulations of the position of the possible storm of the East Coast this weekend from the European modeling system. The red Ls indicate the expected position of the low pressure centers in each of the different simulations, which is an approximation of the center of the storm. (WeatherBell.com)
The US modeling system, not illustrated, presents a range of possibilities similar to that of the European system, but leans slightly more towards a solution at sea.
If the storm strikes the coast and becomes a power plant, total precipitation along the Interstate 95 corridor could be as much as one to three inches. And that would probably attract cold air.
The primary (operational) simulation of the European model predicts maximum temperatures of only 40 to 45 degrees in Washington and Baltimore on Saturday, while a significant rainfall is possible. In this scenario, heights above 2,000 feet in the Appalachian Mountains could see a build-up of snow. Gale force winds and strong waves are likely to hit the coast, causing erosion and coastal flooding.
Further north in New England, the effects of the storm would likely occur on Sunday and the availability of colder air could even allow snow to fall at low altitude, far from the coast.
But again, there is a wide range of possibilities as to how this storm evolves, and it is too early to specify the details.
Regardless of how this storm develops and continues, an unusually cold and cold air will likely follow in the course of early next week across the Atlantic and Northeast.
[ad_2]Source link
