How can the Atlanta Falcons still win in an ultimate year

Jameis Winston was charging ahead of the 20, catching everyone off guard. A defender finally managed to get around the 10th, and he blindly steered the ball to his left, where Adam Humphries briefly took it back, advanced to 5th and lost control of the ball. Mike Evans picked him up, jumped 180 degrees and sent him back to DeSean Jackson, who was sort of open to 5 along the sideline.

The pitch was bad, however, and the ball flew out of bounds, ending the match. Tampa Bay had almost won a crazy and miraculous victory, but Atlanta had survived, 34-29.

We often want to assign a meaning – catalyst, the beginning of the end, everything that has changed everything – to crazy finishes like this one. For Atlanta in 2018, however, it was only another match.

The Falcons' 2018 season does not make sense this time, no room to fall together. There is only grind, only the next tricky obstacle in an endless series of them.

Atlanta hosts the New York Giants Monday night with a chance to move to 3-4 for the season. That would put them still 2.5 days behind the Saints in the NFC South race, of course, but that would only keep them one game in the final auction race.

In isolation, it is disappointing. The Falcons scored 11-5 in 2016 and reached the Super Bowl, then 10-6 despite the loss of offensive coordinator Kyle Shanahan against the 49ers. However, they beat in the end of the red zone their victory over the future Super Bowl champions. With what they had back, it appeared that another potential Super Bowl race was in the cards.

But everyone started to hurt themselves. Linebacker Deion Jones and protectors Keanu Neal and Ricardo Allen, not just three starting defenders, but three of their better Starting defenders, are all on the injured reserve. So begins the guard Andy Levitre. The half off Devonta Freeman officially joined them last Tuesday, having only 14 races this season so far. Hell, even the ageless kicker Matt Bryant is currently hampered by a hamstring problem.

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In college football – at LSU Jones, Freeman State (Florida) or Neal (Florida), for example – you may have the depth and talent to withstand bad breaks. In a league so dedicated to parity, however, a series of injuries may be all that she has written.

The result of the injuries is pretty obvious: Atlanta can not run very well and, with a leaky sieve at the back of the defense, can not stop the pass or create passes.

However, they are still good enough for almost every match to end.

They lost to Philadelphia by six in a solid defensive battle, then were beaten by the Saints (in overtime) and the Bengals (by one). They also narrowly beat Carolina 3-2 and have kept the hope of living with the last-minute thriller on Tampa Bay. They played zero really good match and only one really bad (a 41-17 loss against the Steelers).

Atlanta lost games because of a bad finish and won them because of a good finish. They lost matches with a good position on the field and won games with a bad position. They won games in which they were outmatched in terms of efficiency and lost them with obvious benefits in terms of efficiency. Each week, the Falcons form a different team with different challenges.

Again, that will not change. And if the injuries persist, the grind is even more serious.

But as long as the Falcons to win some of these difficulties, they will stay in the playoff race. So let's take stock and see what the Falcons can or can not do well in the middle of the season.

Comparatively, the offense was much less affected by the succession of injuries. After all, they managed 36 points or more and to lose twice this season. And despite the loss of Freeman and Levitre, they remain 11th in the offensive DVOA (sixth in passing) and ninth in the points standings.

As crazy as it may seem, seen both at the end of the year and the beginning of this year, one of the obvious strengths of the Falcons is the end of the campaigns.

After recording a 13% success rate in the red zone and multiplied the odds of winning the match against Philadelphia, Atlanta was brilliant near the opposing end zone – its success rate in the red zone is 58% after Philly. see.

Freeman's injury paved the way for rookie Ito Smith, and the former Southern Miss Golden Eagle recorded a record 46% success rate in the red zone.

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More importantly, Matt Ryan finds windows passing. Julio Jones remains a lure – he does not even seem to have been target a pass in the red zone since the failure of Philly – but since that game, Calvin Ridley has captured five of the five assists in the red zone for 56 yards and four touchdowns, and the former Austin Hooper has captured three out of four 28 yards and two goals. Attending runner Tevin Coleman wore five times for just 10 yards, but he also caught three passes for 20 yards and two goals.

After calling all the bad guys out of Philadelphia's bad red zone, offensive coordinator Steve Sarkisian expanded things and was a huge success.

Atlanta's high turnout at the 2016 Super Bowl race was breathtaking. In open play situations (taken between your 10 and 30), the Falcons scored 20.9 yards or more on 10.9% of their catch and 74.9% of their first attempts were scored first or second. Both characters were the best in the league.

This level of explosiveness is unsustainable, but despite the decline, Atlanta continues to establish some downstream connections.

Jones has more than nine receptions over 20 yards, Ridley has six, Mohamed Sanu has four and Hooper has two. Although choosing Ridley in the first round of the NFL draft in 2018 did not meet any specific need, it gave the Falcons one more weapon than his opponents could justify in the passing game, and Ryan and Sarkisian took advantage.

Ridley records nearly 1,000 yards of gain, Sanu has 800, and despite no presence of the red zone, Jones has been growing for nearly 2,000. Ryan is currently completing 70% of his passes (75% from Philly) and is on the pace of his first 5,000-yard run.

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Admittedly, the volume comes in part because of the deficits and the fragile racing game. Still, Atlanta demanded more of his passing game, and the passing game responded beautifully.

Look, it's really hard to find nice things to say about the Atlanta defense. Obviously. This is what happens when you start badly and maybe lose your top three players.

According to data provided by Sports Info Solutions, Atlanta only allowed a 24% success rate and an average of 1.9 yards per game in Neal's 37 attempts this season. In 68 attempts with Jones, it was a success rate of 29% and 3.3 yards per game.

Without them, and finally without Allen (204 attempts, 41% success, 5.6 yards per game), the fight was also obvious. Second-year security Damontae Kazee got more action than expected and had difficulties (316 snaps, 48% success, 6.4 yards per game), as did rookie linebacker Foye Oluokun (130, 3% success), who, as Yale's star player, played against teams like Holy Cross and Columbia at the same time last year.

There are not many good tactical options when you are also limited with your staff, and this doubles when your defensive line is inefficiently disappointing in terms of race defense and running. So, hands tied behind the back, head coach Dan Quinn and defensive coordinator Marquand Manuel have chosen to engage in a bend.

Hey, it works sometimes in college. And it's … some kind of work in Atlanta? A little bit?

Granted, bend-not-break can simply postpone the inevitable if you lean too much, but in their two wins, they at least managed to keep their opponents at 4.1 points per scoring opportunity – not great, but acceptable given the dominance of the opponents. offense was. They also forced two turnovers against the Bucs.

This is how the season was defined at this point. Among the five factors – efficiency, explosiveness, field position, finishing workouts and turnarounds – the Falcons simply have to try to break even in three and win two (usually finishing maneuvers and explosive or turnovers).

It is possible that this can continue. Over the next month, they will face visits from giants (not good) and Cowboys (not far from Dallas); win those games and go 1-1 to trips to Washington and Cleveland, and you are 5-5. The final stretch is appalling, with road games against New Orleans, Green Bay, Carolina and Tampa Bay, but in the off-season, you do not show up more than a week in advance.

As Ryan approaches the age of 34, you do not want to lose the year that remains of its peak in a difficult season, but it's the hand Atlanta has had. The path of victories is thin but relatively clear; we will see how long the Falcons can follow him.